UK’s wealth creators are threatening to exit en masse ahead of proposed tax changes

UK luxury shopping

Labour’s proposal to dismantle the UK’s non-dom tax system may lead to an exodus of the ultra-wealthy, as advisors and research bodies have cautioned.

Switzerland, Monaco, Italy, Greece, Malta, Dubai, and the Caribbean are becoming popular relocation destinations, sensing the apprehension among affluent investors.

Meanwhile, London’s super-prime real estate market could experience a decrease in transactions, although this may present opportunities for wealthy U.S. and other global buyers.

Nearly two-thirds (63%) of affluent investors have indicated they would depart from the U.K. within two years or ‘sooner’ if the Labour government proceeds with its intention to abolish the colonial-era tax concession.

Furthermore, 67% stated they would have chosen not to migrate to Britain initially, as per a recent Oxford Economics study evaluating the impact of these plans.

The UK’s non-dom regime, a tax rule with a 200-year history, allows individuals residing in the UK but domiciled elsewhere to not pay tax on foreign income and capital gains for up to 15 years. As of 2023, an estimated 74,000 people enjoyed the status, up from 68,900 the previous year.

Labour last month set out plans to abolish the status, expanding on a pledge set out in its election manifesto

London is again Europe’s best stock market!

UK stock market

The London Stock Market has recently been hailed as Europe’s best stock market! 

According to a survey by Bank of America, Wall Street says that the UK is now the most preferred equity market in Europe. 

This positive sentiment comes as the FTSE 100 hit recent highs, reflecting a shift in investor confidence towards the UK stock market.

It’s quite a turnaround, especially considering the challenges the UK market has faced in recent years.

UK inflation sticks at 2.2% unchanged in August 2024

UK inflation

UK inflation was reported at 2.2% for August 2024, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) data released on Wednesday 18th August 2024

The consumer price index (CPI) figure aligned with the forecasts of analysts and remained consistent with July’s inflation rate of 2.2%.

Previously, the headline CPI had stabilised at 2% in both May and June 2024, which met the Bank of England’s target rate.

UK inflation data from the ONS

UK High Street woes continue as 38 shops reportedly close every day

Closing down

In the first half of this year, pharmacies, pubs, and banks accounted for half of the closures on Britain’s High Streets, according to data. A total of 6,945 stores have shut down in 2024, averaging 38 closures per day

Taking new store openings into account, the net closure rate stands at 12 stores per day, a slight increase from the previous year.

Research by accountancy firm PwC reportedly indicates that each week, an average of 18 pharmacies, 16 pubs, and nine banks closed from January to June 2024.

In contrast, only three convenience stores and one café chain have opened, underscoring the significant transformations occurring in town centres.

The previous year recorded a net closure rate of 11 stores per day.

UK says data centres are critical infrastructure and are designated as important as the power grid and the NHS

Critical data centres UK

UK data centres are set to be classified as critical national infrastructure (CNI), aligning them with sectors such as emergency services, finance, healthcare, and utilities

This classification will ensure they receive additional government support during major incidents like cyber-attacks, IT outages, or severe weather, to reduce disruption.

Data centres, large warehouses filled with extensive computer banks, are the backbone of services like AI applications, data processing, and streaming. Despite facing criticism for their energy and water usage, the new Labour government supports the industry, with Technology Secretary Peter Kyle referring to data centres as ‘the engines of modern life.’

Currently, the UK recognises 13 sectors as critical national infrastructure, a list last revised nine years ago with the addition of space and defence.

The 13 Critical National Infrastructure Sectors

  1. Chemicals
  2. Civil Nuclear
  3. Communications
  4. Defence
  5. Emergency Services
  6. Energy
  7. Finance
  8. Food
  9. Government
  10. Health
  11. Space
  12. Transport
  13. Water

British Technology Minister Peter Kyle announced on Thursday 12th September 2024 that UK data centres will be designated as ‘Critical National Infrastructure’ (CNI). This status, typically reserved for essential national sectors like nuclear power, provides data centre operators with a direct communication channel to the government for threat preparation and response.

Furthermore, the government has expressed support for a proposed £3.75 billion data centre by UK company DC01UK in Hertfordshire, England, which is projected to be the largest in Europe upon completion.

UK economy flatlines for second month in a row

UK economic health

The UK’s economy did not experience growth in July 2024, continuing the stagnation from June 2024, as indicated by official data

Analysts had anticipated a modest growth of 0.2% for July. However, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell short of the expectations set by economists surveyed by Reuters, who had predicted a 0.2% increase. Additionally, the country experienced no GDP growth in June 2024.

In July 2024, Britain’s predominant services sector experienced a slight increase of 0.1%, while production and construction outputs declined by 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively.

The UK’s economic growth rose by 0.5% in the three months leading up to July 2024, which was marginally below the expectations of economists and the 0.6% growth seen in the second quarter ending in June.

The services sector received a boost from a summer filled with sports events, including the Euros and the Olympics, despite the downturn in production and construction outputs.

The absence of growth for another month poses a significant challenge for the new Labour government, which has prioritised economic stimulation.

Despite no growth in July 2024, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) noted that the services sector showed strength over the last three months as a whole. Growth was primarily driven by computer programmers and the health sector, which bounced back from June’s strike action.

However, there was a decline in output from the advertising, architecture, and engineering sectors, according to the ONS. Car and machinery firms experienced a particularly challenging month.

While the ONS tracks gross domestic product (GDP) monthly, greater emphasis is placed on the three-month trend. Monthly figures, being preliminary estimates, are often subject to minor revisions as more data becomes available.

UK economy flatlines in July 2024

UK economy flatlines in July 2024 (Graph and Data ONS)

Rightmove rejects £5.6 billion takeover offer

House For Sale

The Australian property listing company REA Group announced on Wednesday that its £5.6 billion ($7.32 billion) cash-and-stock bid to take over Rightmove, Britain’s largest real estate portal, was rejected.

REA Group, which is 62% owned by Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp, reportedly did not provide a reason for Rightmove’s refusal of the offer.

Analysts have noted that Britain’s housing market is three times larger than Australia’s. A successful deal would have accelerated REA’s expansion into profitable international markets.

UK retailers reported a 0.5% rebound in July 2024

Retail UK

UK retail sales up

The rise came after a significant drop in sales volumes, which track the amount purchased, in June due to unfavorable weather affecting demand.

Last month, department stores and retailers of sports equipment saw an uptick in the volume of goods sold thanks to the Euro football tournament.

However, the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which provided the data, noted that it was a challenging month for clothing and furniture retailers, with fuel sales declining even as prices at the pump decreased.

UK economy grows 0.6% in second quarter 2024

UK GDP growth

The U.K. economy grew by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2024, the Office for National Statistics said Thursday 15th August 2024, in line with expectations.

The data release follows an expansion of 0.7% in the first quarter of 2024.

Economic growth was flat in June, in line with forecasts.

The UK economy has shown modest yet consistent growth each month this year, marking an exit from a mild ‘technical’ recession. Additionally, GDP remained unchanged in April, influenced by wet weather that impacted retail sales and construction activity.

Growth was led by the services sector, in particular the IT industry, legal services and scientific research.

ONS data for UK economic growth

UK inflation rate climbs to 2.2%

UK inflation

The UK’s inflation rate has risen for the first time this year, official ONS figures show.

This indicates that overall prices increased by 2.2% in the year leading up to July, a rise from 2% in June, surpassing the Bank of England’s target.

The anticipated increase is primarily attributed to the less significant drop in gas and electricity prices compared to the previous year.

The Bank of England reportedly anticipates a further increase in inflation this year before it declines again.

The core inflation rate, which is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco prices, was reported at 3.3% in July, a slight decrease from 3.5% in June, according to the statistics office.

Additionally, service inflation, which the Bank of England (BoE) monitors closely, decreased to 5.2% in July from 5.7% the previous month, yet still remains elevated.

These inflation statistics follow the release of data on Tuesday 13th July 2024, which revealed that the average wage growth excluding bonuses was 5.4% from April to June year-on-year, the lowest in two years.

Concurrently, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% during this period, down from 4.4% between March and May 2024.

UK unemployment falls slightly and pay growth slows

UK employment data

Official figures indicate a slight decrease in the UK’s unemployment rate, which was 4.2% in the three months to the end of June 2024, a drop from the previous quarter’s 4.4%.

In contrast, UK wage growth has decelerated, with an annual increase of 5.4%, marking the lowest rate in approximately two years.

Not all positive

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has acknowledged some positive developments, yet it also noted indications of a ‘cooling’ job market, evidenced by an increase in job vacancies, a rise in redundancies, and a persistently high number of individuals not actively seeking employment.

This trend emerges as businesses are grappling with escalating operational costs and potentially reducing their recruitment efforts.

U.S. stock markets rise after days of turmoil

Stocks up

U.S. shares gained on Tuesday 6th August 2024, signalling a tentative stabilisation in global markets after a period of significant declines.

The Nasdaq, known for its tech-centric portfolio, along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500, all ended the day in more positive territory.

This ‘lift’ came after a period of muted activity in UK and European markets, with London’s FTSE 100 experiencing an initial surge before retreating.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 stock index recorded a substantial rise of 10.2%, or 3217 points, marking its largest single-day point increase following a steep drop the day before.

The recent turmoil in the stock market was triggered on Friday 2nd August 2024 by unsatisfactory U.S. job data for July 2024, which indicated an increase in unemployment, raising alarms over a potential recession.

Additionally, there has been growing apprehension that stocks of major technology firms, especially those with significant investments in artificial intelligence (AI), may have been excessively valued, leading to challenges for some of these companies.

Short-sighted policy U-turn as the UK Labour government cancels £1.3 billion of computing projects

AI supercomputer mainframe

A real set-back for UK AI global ambition

The new Labour government has withdrawn £1.3bn in funding previously pledged by the Conservatives for technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI) initiatives.

This includes £800m allocated for the development of an exascale supercomputer at Edinburgh University and an additional £500m for the AI Research Resource, which provides computing power for AI. These funds were announced less than a year ago.

The Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT) stated that although the funds were promised by the former administration, they were not included in its budget. The decision has faced criticism from some within the industry.

Another blow for the UK’s homegrown tech sector.

UK national debt as a percentage of GDP is now 99.5%

UK Debt to GDP percentage

Highest ratio since the 1960’s and even higher than that reached during the Covid pandemic of 2020.

The UK’s national debt has reached its highest level since 1962.

Official figures from the ONS show that the total government debt amounted to 99.5% of the economy’s value in June 2024, surpassing the peak levels experienced during the coronavirus pandemic.

The current debt level is comparable to that last observed in the early 1960’s.

Pound hits highest level versus dollar for a year

Pound Sterling

The pound reached its highest level against the dollar in a year on Wednesday 17th July 2024, as investors wagered that UK interest rates would remain elevated for longer.

New data released on Wednesday 17th July 2024 indicated that inflation was more persistent than some analysts had anticipated, leading traders to reduce their expectations of a rate decrease in August 2024, propelling the pound above $1.30 for the first time since the previous July.

Additionally, the pound’s strength has been supported by market optimism that the newly elected Labour government will provide economic stability.

UK inflation holds at Bank of England’s 2% target but above projections

UK inflation

U.K. inflation matched the Bank of England’s target of 2% in June 2024, as calculated by data from the Official for National Statistics on Wednesday 17th July 2024.

The main figure was slightly higher than the 1.9% forecast by analysts surveyed by Reuters, aligning with May’s 2% figure.

Following the announcement, the value of Sterling increased modestly, reaching $1.2977 at 7:21 a.m. British Summer Time.

The Bank of England (BoE) closely monitors services inflation due to its significant role in the U.K. economy and as an indicator of domestic price increases, which remained at 5.7% in June. Service inflation remains a stubborn issue and a problem still for the BoE.

The core inflation rate, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, stood at 3.5%, consistent with the rate seen in May 2024.

Burberry share price slides as company announces profit warning

Luxury goods

Burberry shares slide on Monday 15th July 2024 after the UK luxury fashion group announced a profit warning and a dividend halt and said its chief executive officer (CEO) was being replaced.

The maker of the iconic trench coat described a ‘disappointing’ fiscal first-quarter 2025 in a trading update.

Burberry reportedly said that if the recent trading slowdown continues, it expects to report an operating loss for the first half of this year and full-year operating profit below current consensus.

Shares in the 168-year-old British luxury giant were down 15% on Monday 15th July 2024 in early London trading.

Burberry share price falls to around 745 on Monday 15th July 2024 – one year share price chart

Burberry share price falls to around 745 on Monday 15th July 2024 – one year share price chart

Which governments hold the most Bitcoin?

Bitcoin cartoon

U.S., UK and Germany hold more Bitcoin than you may think.

According to the Arkham website, the United States’ government holds some 212,847 BTC making it one of the biggest holders of Bitcoin, while the treasuries of the U.K. and Germany reportedly hold around 61,245 BTC and 49,858 BTC each. (These values alter daily).

In addition to Bitcoin, the U.S. government also holds around $200 million in other cryptocurrencies like Ether (ETH), as well as major stablecoins like USDC.

U.S. Bitcoin holding by current value according to Arkham

Data from Arkham (as of 12th July 2024)

Arkham, a crypto intelligence platform focused on deanonymizing entities on the blockchain network, has introduced a dashboard featuring the governments with the largest crypto holdings.

The U.K. government, reportedly ranked second, holds around $3.5 billion worth of Bitcoin at current valuations, according to Arkham’s data. The German government owns roughly $2.5 billion.

UK Bitcoin holding by current value according to Arkham

Data from Arkham (as of 12th July 2024)

Other world governments holding Bitcoin

China, Russia, Ukraine, El Salvador, Finland, Bhutan and many others.

In 2021, El Salvador became the first country to make Bitcoin legal tender and mandated all local businesses to accept payments in BTC. 

Labour Party win 2024 UK election in landslide victory after giving the Conservative Party a drubbing!

Labour Party win 2024 election

The U.K.’s opposition Labour Party secured a significant parliamentary majority in the 2024 general election, displacing the incumbent Conservatives after 14 years in power.

Labour surpassed the threshold of 326 majority required to govern without coalition support as outgoing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak acknowledged the loss. Sir Keir Starmer, the leader of the centre-left Labour Party, is set to become the next prime minister, having declared victory in the early hours.

The Labour Party’s massive majority was achieved as Europe lurches to the right and the UK turns left – very contrasting differences.

The strength and size of the win mustn’t allow the Labour Party to railroad policy.

The Labour Party campaigned on the slogan ‘change’ – but what does that really mean? A change from what to what exactly? Time will tell – but I have my doubts. Having lived through many political changes and many Party promises that slowly drifted away to reality.

It looks very much to me that the win was a vote against rather than a vote for.

However, it was refreshing to witness democracy very much at work in the UK election.

Change!

Come on then Labour – let’s now see what you can do for the people of the UK now that you have trashed the Tories!

You have the majority!

Time for that change.

“Meet Bill and Bet!”

UK election betting scandal

UK Election betting scandal mars politicians and the police!

Just when you think the state of UK politics couldn’t get any worse… it does!

The ‘clicky’ inner circles of both the Conservative and of the Labour Party with their mucky little antics – placing bets on the date of the UK election – KNOWING THE OUTCOME!!

Why would anyone behave in this way?

No wonder the public are utterly disenfranchised with politics. The morally bankrupt behaviour and greed shown by some in both the Conservative and Labour Party is breathtaking and bereft of any basic moral compass.

These people are broken and should not be in positions of trust representing our country.

And the police too!

UK election betting scandal
“Meet Bill and Bet!”

Billy and Betty off to place their bets!

“SS Sunak – rats deserting the Sinking Ship!”

Sinking Ship!

SS Sunak – rats deserting a Sinking Ship!

UK Election: I don’t know if it’s just me but… where are all the Conservative Party cabinet BIG hitters?

Sunak has very little support, if any from his cabinet!

Where is Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor of the Exchequer for example?

He’s not that visible on the election campaign trail. His absence could easily be construed as ‘distinctly unhelpful.’

Where is he?

“Here… I think you may need this!”

Take cover!

UK election engulfed in yet another politically charged fallout from scandalous greed driven morally bankrupt politicians, and police. All connected to the inner workings of a failed government bereft of any sense of moral duty. The opposition Party are implicated too!

Why?

Is this really the best we can do?

Nvidia briefly surpassed the individual stock market values of Germany, France and the UK

Market Cap up

The little-known company, Nvidia, now stands alongside Apple and Microsoft in market cap valuation thanks to AI.

In just a little over a year it has all but tripled its market valuation and become a go to investment on Wall Street and around the world.

Nvidia’s market capitalization has recently individually surpassed the total value of the German, French, and U.K. stock markets.

With a market cap exceeding $3.4 trillion, Nvidia now stands above these significant European stock markets in valuation.