Some of the stock market’s biggest gains in 2023 came not from crypto but from crypto related businesses

Cryptocurrency

For true cryptocurrency bulls, the most lucrative investments in 2023 were in the stock market.

While Bitcoin rallied over 150% for the year, shares of Coinbase, Marathon Digital, MicroStrategy and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which are all tied closely to the digital currency, did substantially better, rising more than 300% in value. Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital soared some 688%.

Outperform

Not only have these stocks outperformed primary cryptocurrency, but they’ve been among the biggest gainers across the whole U.S. stock market. In the universe of publicly traded U.S. businesses with a market value of at least $5 billion, the four Bitcoin-tied stocks were among the eight best performers, according to analysts.

Boom or bust?

The crypto boom represents a major recovery from 2022, when coin prices plummeted, taking related equities down with them. A year highlighted by hedge fund collapses, crypto lender failures and crippling losses at miners was punctuated in November 2022, when crypto exchange FTX spiralled into bankruptcy, leading to the arrest of founder Sam Bankman-Fried on fraud charges.

Guilty of fraud
A jury in New York convicted Bankman-Fried on seven criminal counts

Bankman-Fried conviction

In 2023, a New York jury convicted Bankman-Fried on seven criminal counts, setting the 31-year-old former billionaire up for a possible long-stretch behind bars. Weeks later, Changpeng Zhao (CZ), founder of crypto exchange Binance, pleaded guilty and stepped down as the company’s CEO as part of a $4.3 billion settlement with the Department of Justice. He faces a possible prison sentence of 18 months or longer.

By the time of Bankman-Fried’s conviction and Zhao’s plea deal, the damage to the broader crypto market had mostly been realised, and investors were looking to the future. One of the biggest drivers for bitcoin this year was an easing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, which created a more attractive case for riskier assets, but only marginally.

Bitcoin halving due May 2024 & ETF’s

Prices were also bolstered by the upcoming Bitcoin halving, which takes place every four years and is scheduled for May 2024. In the halving process, the reward for mining is cut in half, capping the supply of bitcoin.

Additional buying was sparked by the potential for a flurry of bitcoin exchange-traded funds popping up in the new year.

Marathon

Among companies closely tied to Bitcoin, the best-performing stock this year was Marathon, a mining firm that just eclipsed that market cap level last week thanks to a 125% surge in December as of Tuesday’s close. On Wednesday, the shares surged another 15%.

Last year at this time, Marathon was hanging on by a thread. The company was in the midst of a quarter that ended with a loss of almost $400 million on sales of just $28.4 million because of tumbling bitcoin prices

Mining

Bitcoin mining is an expensive operation because of the high energy costs required to operate the supercomputers. A drop in bitcoin prices means a sharp reduction in the money producers make selling the coins they mine, even as their energy bills get little relief.

Outside of the mining universe, the best-performing crypto stock in the U.S. this year is Coinbase, which has soared some 386% into 2023 year end.

Coinbase

As the only major publicly traded crypto exchange in the U.S., Coinbase has long been a popular way to buy and trade cryptocurrencies in its home market. But with the struggles at Binance, the largest exchange in the world, Coinbase picked up useful market share during non-U.S. trading hours, according to a report from research firm Kaiko in late November 2023.

Crypto
Binance is still open for business (Art illustration of a fictitious crypto trading room)

Shortly after Zhao’s plea deal, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong reportedly said that the news amounted to ‘a vindication of the long-term strategy that we’ve taken to focus on compliance, make sure we were building a trusted company.’

Coinbase’s revenue and stock price are still way below where they were during the heyday of crypto trading in 2021, when retail investors were jumping into the market to buy all sorts of digital currencies, including gimmicks like Dogecoin.

But the business has stabilized following drastic cost-cutting measures starting last year and extending into early 2023.

Will 2024 be an outstanding year for crypto?

Sudden sell-off confounds analysts – is it profit taking or economic woe?

Wall Street

The Nasdaq and Dow hit new all-time highs in recent days and the S&P 500 is hot on their heels.

After nine straight days of gains, Wall Street suddenly reversed an hour and a half before the closing bell on Wednesday 20th December 2023.

The sell-off expanded into Asia overnight, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 leading losses, before stocks across Europe also slid into the red on the Thursday morning, 21st December 2023.

Some indicated Wednesday’s sell-off was as simple as investors taking profits after a nine-day mini bull run, in the absence of any obvious catalyst and with U.S. stocks widely seen as overbought.

Other market analysts pointed to a high volume of zero-day options trading as the death knell for the winning streak.

Time left for a Santa rally?

Markets have been on a tear in recent eeks and months, maybe it’s time for a breather. But some suggest U.S. equities are overbought in general – so, is this something more discerning?

If only I bought these stocks 30 years ago

Invest long-term

In 1993, amidst the hustle and bustle of family life and work commitments, I distinctly recall contemplating that should I have any disposable income, I would invest it in these particular stocks.

I worked in tech running my own business and Microsoft was one of the businesses I wondered about, Apple was another and later Amazon too.

I never bought them, but had I have done, this is what would have happened.

Microsoft

Microsoft in 1993 was trading at around $2.35 per share. Today the company’s share price is trading at around $374.00 per share. So, had I bought $1,000 (adjusting for splits and dividends), my $1000 would be worth about $160,000 now. Had I bought $10,000 – I would have made just over $1 million.

Amazon

Had I bought Amazon a little later in 1997 and held it, a $1000 investment would now be worth a staggering $1.7 million (adjusting for splits and dividends). After the IPO and subsequent stock splits Amazon shares were trading at just 7 cents each according to Amazon’s website.

Apple

And as for Apple – a stock purchase in 1993 of $1000 would now be worth approximately $900,000 (not allowing for stock splits and dividends). Apple was trading at 22 cents per share in 1993.

The question is, if I had made the stock purchases – would I still be holding them long-term?

I wonder?

Nvidia stock closes at all-time high

AI chip image

Nvidia stock closes at all-time high, a day before earnings

Shares of Nvidia closed up 2.3% at an all-time high of $504 on Monday 20th November 2023. The record comes ahead of the company’s Q3 results due Tuesday 21st November 2023, when analysts are expecting to see revenue growth of over 170%.

And, if that’s not enough, the forecast for Q4, according to some analysts, is likely to show a number close to 200% growth.

Nvidia is still by far the market leader in GPUs for AI, but high prices and competition are fast becoming an issue.

Can Nvidia continue the AI ride and hold this remarkable market share position?

AI could lead to the next financial crash!

AI created stock market crash

There is some evidence that AI could create the next financial crisis, according to some experts and regulators.

AI scenarios

AI could increase the complexity and opacity of financial markets, making it harder to monitor and prevent systemic risks. For example, AI could enable new forms of market manipulation, fraud, or cyberattacks that could destabilize the financial system.

AI could create feedback loops or cascading effects that could amplify shocks and cause contagion across different sectors and regions. For example, AI could trigger flash crashes or sudden liquidity shortages that could spread rapidly and disrupt market functioning.

AI could create new sources of concentration and interdependence that could increase the vulnerability of the financial system. For example, AI could create a reliance on a few dominant data providers, platforms, or models that could fail or malfunction.

AI bots could take control of a stock trading platform or worse a stock exchange.

These are some of the possible scenarios that AI could create the next financial crisis. However, there are many potential benefits and opportunities that AI could bring to the financial sector, such as enhancing efficiency and innovation and even enhancing easier access and personal financial control for millions of investors and savers.

AI could cause a stock market crash
AI could lead to the next financial crash! It could also enhance personal financial control.

As always, it is important to balance the risks and rewards of AI and to develop appropriate regulatory frameworks and ethical standards to ensure its safe and responsible use.

Long-term investing for a long-term win!

Run the winners!

The idea is simple – pick good companies and hold them for the long-term.

Every time you buy shares in a company, you have purchased a piece of that company. And as a share owner, you are entitled to a ‘share’ of the profits. 

When it comes to investing, the goal is to find great companies, super companies. Buy shares in these companies at good prices. And then behave like owners of these companies and enjoy all of the successes.

Then… HOLD those shares for as long as possible – as if you own the company.

Ask yourself this question: ‘Would you buy the company?’

If the answer is yes – then go buy the shares.

Holding on as long as possible means that as long as you believe a company is still a great, you are more likely to keep the shares. But if something changes and it’s no longer a good choice, then it may be time to sell up.

The message here is to believe in a long-term investing strategy – because it works!

Short-Term versus Long-Term Investing

What you must not do is gamble on shares or any other high-risk activity or product. Share prices go up and they go down all the time. And in some cases, prices continue to move even after the stock market has closed!

Long term investing is a long-term winner!

Most people aren’t successful trying to ‘bet’ on when a share is going to go up or down especially short-term bets laced over minutes, hours, days or weeks. You can’t build wealth this way. In fact, there are plenty of traders out there with tragic stories to tell of failed ‘dumb money bets’. This is one of the fastest ways to lose your hard-earned cash; just don’t do it!

Platforms

There are many investing platforms available today that offer all sorts of trading solutions, from day trading, CFDs (contract for differences), spread betting, and more recently, cryptocurrencies. These instruments aren’t really designed to assist a long-term strategy but rather a short-term punt or bet. It’s an endless game where someone, somewhere is always left with nothing. These systems will happily take your money.

Please read the small print for these services. Do not be surprised to see disclosures that read something like, ‘75%+ of retail traders lose money’. It’s true, they do, and it could be you! Its far far easier to learn to become financially successful over the long term.

Long-Term Investing

Diversify

A hard truth about investing is that sometimes you’ll get it wrong, we all do.

The term for this is firm-specific risk (sometimes referred to as unsystematic risk). And every company in the world, even industry behemoths like Amazon, Apple or Microsoft get it wrong sometimes too. It’s unavoidable.

Fortunately, such risk can be mitigated through diversification. By owning a number of companies, the returns of one successful investment can easily offset the losses of several losers. 

It is wise to aim to build a portfolio over time of around say 10 – 20 quality businesses that you believe in. If you would be prepared to ‘buy’ the company; buying shares in it is the next best option.

Have Patience

In the short term, the movements of the stock market are chaotic, unpredictable or volatile even. But over a longer period of time, a recurring pattern starts to emerge among quality businesses.

Invest long-term
Select quality companies and hold them!

Companies can’t magically double their profits overnight. Building a massive multi-billion or even trillion-pound enterprise takes time. But the investors who have the patience and financial prudence to invest in quality businesses with such long-term potential can unlock enormous wealth.

Invest consistently

Getting started with investing is the first major step. The second is to keep investing over time. Little and often. It’s not easy to ‘free up’ cash but the more money you put to work by investing in stocks, the better your portfolio will do overall.

It is easy for me to suggest for you to go invest and spend your money, you most likely need the money spare to be able to go do this in the first place. So, a little invested spread over time will help open that ‘wealth’ door as time trickles by.

However, there is a caveat to this rule. You should only invest money you don’t need to live. Invest only what you have spare or can ‘free up’.

This is the way!

Long-term investing requires holding investments for years or even decades. This strategy works – this is the way! It’s easier said than done, but a little invested now will go a long way later. It’s also a matter of priorities and sacrifice to ‘free up’ some spare cash to invest instead of buying that new must have gadget (that you don’t really need).

Also, the last place you want to find yourself in is where you are forced to sell your investment before it’s had time to ‘climb’ because you’re short on cash. Or even worse, forced to sell your holding during a stock market crash when prices are extremely low. That’s an awful place to be – don’t go there if you can avoid it. However, buying after a crash is a different matter – but again, buy only good quality companies.

Let the winners run!
Select super good companies and hold them.

In short, invest consistently. But only the money you can afford. Don’t borrow, don’t use credit. Only invest what you can afford. It will work for you over time. But invest wisely in good high quality comapnies,

Don’t panic – volatility happens!

The stock market will crash; this is an inevitable fact of investing. Naive investors, who panic during these volatile times, often end up selling their shares that are either completely unaffected by the catalysts of the crash or perfectly capable of weathering the storm.

Just take a look at what happened with Apple in 2008. The tech giant fell by over 50% in the space of 12 months despite having no exposure to the U.S. housing market – even Apple got caught up in the sub-prime lending fiasco. And while the subsequent recession did impact sales, recessions, just like stock market crashes, are temporary. Apple share price recovered, as did many other top-notch companies too.

As horrible a stock market crash is, this is actually one of the best times to buy shares, especially when investing for the long-term. And these opportunities only come around once a decade or so. So, don’t miss out on these incredible opportunities to buy fantastic businesses at major discounts if you have the cash spare.

Let your winners run

Portfolio management is something every investor has to do. Yet a common mistake, is to sell shares in thriving companies too soon. This is usually an error – bear in mind that winners have a tendency to keep winning! But I get that – I understand you may want to sell as you need the money or want some of your investment back. Try and hold if you can – but not at any odds. Keep a close eye on the market – sentiment will change and that will alter the markets direction.

Let the winners run!
Let the winners run!

Having said that, there is an exception. It’s perfectly possible for a company that was just 2% of your portfolio to grow to 20% or even higher. In these scenarios, it can be wise to sell a few shares to reduce the risk of being over-exposed to a single investment. 

But otherwise, let your winners win. LET THE WINNERS RUN!

You can do it!

There is no such thing as risk-free investing, even with a long-term approach. But many of these risk factors can be mitigated through strategies like diversification. Try and manage your portfolio, add stop losses and follow your investments through the newswires.

Remember to always do your research! No short cuts!

RESEARCH, RESEARCH, and even more RESEARCH!

Tesla stock down 15% week ending 22nd October 2023, its worst performance of the year

Tesla

The stock dropped more than 15% over the last few days after the company posted third-quarter earnings on Wednesday 20th October 2023. 

The earnings report showed that Tesla missed analysts’ expectations on revenue and earnings per share. Tesla also announced a recall of 475,000 vehicles in the US due to a potential battery fire risk.

Additionally, Tesla faced regulatory challenges in China, where it was banned from selling its AI chips due to national security concerns. These factors contributed to the negative sentiment around Tesla stock and increased its volatility.

Tesla stock has fallen 73% from its record high in November 2021. The stock is down 69% in 2022, more than double the decline in the Nasdaq. 

Tesla price crossed below 200 day moving average this is a bearish indicator.

Tesla price crossed below 200 day moving average this is a bearish indicator.

Among major carmakers, Ford is down 46% and General Motors has fallen 43%. Since its IPO in 2010, Tesla has only fallen in one other year, an 11% drop in 2016. Some analysts and investors are still optimistic about Tesla’s long-term prospects, citing its innovation, leadership, and loyal customer base. 

However, others are sceptical about Tesla’s valuation, profitability, and competition. Tesla’s stock performance in the coming months will depend on how it can overcome its current challenges and deliver on growth.

Don’t underestimate Elon Musk, but bear in mind other big car manufacturers are now catching and moving ahead of Tesla in the EV race.

If profit growth accelerates over the next two quarters – is it wise to buy the dip now?

Stocks roller coaster

Some analysts say yes!

Buying the dip means purchasing an asset, usually a stock, when its price has dropped. The expectation is that the drop is a short-term anomaly, and the asset’s price will soon go back up. It is a strategy that some traders and investors use to take advantage of price fluctuations and profit from market rebounds. 

However, buying the dip can also be risky, as there is no guarantee that the price will recover or that the asset is not in a long-term downtrend. Therefore, it is important to do your research, use indicators, and have a risk management plan before buying the dip.

Current market situation and general ‘readout’

The S&P 500 is still ‘buy the dip’ for the next six months,’ some analysts suggest.

In some reports, it is expected that the profit cycle will be positive over the next six months and for data to improve before a consumer-spending led downturn leads to a selloff in U.S. stocks! That’s the ‘general’ readout.

Corporate profit expectations are behind much of that forecast for stocks. Analysts expect profit growth to accelerate over the next two quarters and see the S&P 500 in a range of 4,050 to 4,750. A mild recession in early or middle 2024 should lead to a higher risk premium, pushing the S&P 500 back close to 3,800. This is all conjecture.

Other analysts doubt the earnings uplift potential and anticipate stocks to fall back sooner as PE ratios sit at an already high level.

Take your pick

My view, for what it’s worth, is for stocks to climb for the time being through into the New Year and then to face pullback.

Truth is, no one knows. We can all make educated guesses.

Just watch the markets and be ready for the fall – that is coming for sure!

Nikkei 225 all time high of 1989

Nikkei 225 all time high of 1989

The Nikkei 225 index, is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange. 

The Nikkei 225 reached its all-time high on 29 December 1989, during the peak of the Japanese asset price bubble, when it reached an intra-day high of 38,957.44, before closing at 38,915.87. This was after a decade-long bull run throughout the 1980s, when the index grew sixfold.

Since then, the index has never surpassed this level, and has experienced several periods of decline and stagnation. As of October 4, 2023, the index closed at 30,526.88, down by 2.28% from the previous day and 8389 points off its all-time high.

Will it ever breach the high of 1989?

Nikkei 225 all time high of 1989

Good news is bad news, and now bad news is bad news too

Stock market jitters

The stock market can’t get a break

It’s frustrating!

The stock market can be very volatile and unpredictable, especially in times of uncertainty and crisis. It seems like investors are reacting to every piece of news, whether it’s good or bad, with fear and panic.

According to some analysts, the main factors that are driving the market turmoil are the rising bond yields, the slowing global growth, the ongoing trade tensions, and the potential fiscal risks. These issues have created a lot of uncertainty and anxiety among market participants, who are looking for signs of stability and direction.

Long-term investing makes sense

Some experts suggest that the best way to deal with the market volatility is to have a long-term perspective, diversify your portfolio, and avoid emotional decisions. They also advise to stay informed, but not to overreact to every headline or rumour.

Remember that the market has gone through many ups and downs in the past and has always recovered over time.

Make sure as always… do your research!

RESEARCH! RESEARCH! RESEARCH!