U.S. Inflation Slows Slightly in September, Easing Pressure on Fed

U.S. Inflation data

The latest U.S. inflation figures show a modest increase in consumer prices. The annual rate rose to 3.0% in September 2025, up from 2.9% in August. 2025.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.3% month-on-month, slightly below economists’ expectations.

Core inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—also rose by 0.2% in September. This brought the year-on-year rate to 3.0%, again undercutting forecasts of 3.1%.

A notable contributor to the headline figure was a 4.1% surge in petrol prices. This offset declines in other areas such as used vehicles and household furnishings.

Federal Reserve

The data arrives just ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting, where a 0.5% rate cut is widely anticipated. Softer inflation readings have buoyed market sentiment, with futures posting gains on hopes of looser monetary policy.

Despite a partial government shutdown, the inflation report was released on schedule, underscoring its significance for financial markets and policymakers.

With inflation now hovering near the Fed’s target, attention turns to wage growth and consumer spending as key indicators of future price stability.

The next CPI update is due mid-November.

This CPI news added to the possibility of a Fed rate cut in conjunction to the possibility of a U.S. China ‘tariff trade’ deal and relaxation of Rare Earth material sales pushed markets to new all-time highs!

China’s rare Earth clampdown continues to send shockwaves through global markets

Rare Earth Materials

China’s latest tightening of rare earth exports has reignited global concerns over supply chain fragility and strategic resource dependence.

With Beijing now requiring special permits for the export of key rare earth elements—used in everything from electric vehicles to missile guidance systems—the move is widely seen as a geopolitical lever in an increasingly fractured global trade landscape.

Rare earths, despite their name, are not scarce—but China controls over 60% of global production and an even larger share of refining capacity. The new restrictions, framed as national security measures, have already begun to ripple through equity markets.

Shares of Western mining firms such as Albemarle and MP Materials surged on the news, as investors bet on alternative sources gaining traction. Meanwhile, defence and tech stocks in Europe dipped, reflecting fears of supply bottlenecks and rising input costs1.

This isn’t China’s first foray into rare earth brinkmanship. Similar curbs in 2010 triggered a scramble for diversification, but progress has been slow.

The current squeeze coincides with rising tensions over semiconductor access and military technology, suggesting a broader strategy of resource weaponisation.

For investors, the message is clear: rare earths are no longer just a niche commodity—they’re a geopolitical flashpoint. Expect increased volatility in sectors reliant on high-performance magnets, batteries, and advanced optics.

Countries like the US, Australia, and Canada are accelerating domestic mining initiatives, but scaling up remains a long-term play.

In the short term, China’s grip on rare earths is tightening—and markets are reacting accordingly.

As the global economy pivots toward electrification and AI-driven infrastructure, the battle over these elemental building blocks is only just beginning. The stocks may rise and fall, but the strategic stakes are climbing ever higher.

China’s sweeping export restrictions on rare earths have triggered a sharp rally in related stocks, especially among U.S.-based producers and processors.

The market is interpreting Beijing’s move as both a supply threat and a strategic opportunity for non-Chinese firms to gain ground.

📈 Some companies in the spotlight

  • USA Rare Earth surged nearly 15% in a single day and is up 94% over the past five weeks, buoyed by speculation of a potential U.S. government investment and its vertically integrated magnet production pipeline.
  • NioCorp Developments, Ramaco Resources, and Energy Fuels all posted gains of approximately between 9–12%.
  • MP Materials, the largest U.S. rare earth miner, rose over 6% following news of tighter Chinese controls. The company recently secured a strategic equity deal with the U.S. Department of Defence.
  • Albemarle, Lithium Americas, and Trilogy Metals also saw modest gains, reflecting broader investor interest in critical mineral plays.
Company / SectorStock MovementStrategic Note
MP Materials (US)↑ +6%DoD-backed, key US supplier
USA Rare Earth↑ +15%Magnet pipeline, gov’t investment buzz
NioCorp / Ramaco / Energy Fuels↑ +9–12%Domestic mining surge
European Defence Stocks↓ 2–4%Supply chain fears
Chinese Magnet Producers↔ / ↓Export permit uncertainty

China’s new rules, effective December 1st, require export licences for any product containing more than 0.1% rare earths or using Chinese refining or magnet recycling tech. This has intensified scrutiny on global supply chains and elevated the strategic value of domestic alternatives.

🧭 Investor sentiment is shifting toward companies that can offer secure, non-Chinese sources of rare earths—especially those with downstream capabilities like magnet manufacturing. The rally suggests markets are pricing in long-term geopolitical risk and potential government backing.

Weekend update

Is President Trump in control of the stock market? A comment on TruthSocial suggesting that more China tariffs might be introduced in response to China’s restrictions on rare earth materials reportedly wipes out around $2 trillion from U.S. stocks.

Then it reverses as Trump says, ‘All will be fine’. Stocks climb back up. What’s going on?

It’s just a game.

But who is the game master?

China’s restriction of rare earth materials hurts

Chinas rare earth material dominance

China’s recent export restrictions on rare earth elements are sending shockwaves through multiple industries worldwide.

As the curbs continue to take effect, sectors reliant on these critical minerals—including automotive, defence, and clean energy—are beginning to feel the strain.

China controls about 60–70% of global rare earth production and nearly 90% of the refining capacity.

Even when rare earths are mined elsewhere, they’re often sent to China for processing, since few countries have the infrastructure or environmental tolerance to handle the complex and polluting refining process.

In April 2025, China introduced export controls on seven key rare earth elements and permanent magnets, citing national interests and responding to rising trade tensions—particularly with the U.S.

Automotive industry in crisis

The auto sector is among the hardest hit. Rare earth elements are essential for both combustion engines and electric vehicles, particularly in the production of magnets used in motors and batteries.

European auto suppliers have already reported production shutdowns due to dwindling inventories.

Germany’s car industry, a global powerhouse, has reportedly warned that further disruptions could bring manufacturing to a standstill.

Japan’s Nissan and Suzuki have also expressed concerns, with Suzuki reportedly halting production of its Swift model due to shortages.

Defence and technology sectors at risk

China’s dominance in rare earth refining, controlling nearly 90% of global capacity, poses a strategic challenge for defense industries.

The U.S. military relies heavily on these materials for missile guidance systems, radar technology, and advanced electronics.

With nearly 78% of defence platforms dependent on Chinese-processed rare earths, the restrictions expose vulnerabilities in national security.

Clean energy ambitions under threat

The clean energy transition depends on rare earths for wind turbines, solar panels, and electric vehicle batteries.

China’s curbs threaten global efforts to reduce carbon emissions, forcing countries to scramble for alternative sources. India’s electric vehicle sector, for instance, faces potential setbacks as manufacturers struggle to secure supplies.

As industries grapple with these disruptions, governments and corporations are urgently seeking solutions. Whether through diplomatic negotiations or investment in domestic rare earth production, the race is on to mitigate the fallout from China’s tightening grip on these critical resources.

Several countries have significant rare earth reserves and can supply these materials in high quantities.

Top rare earth materials suppliers

China – The dominant player, with 44 million metric tons of reserves.

Brazil – Holds 21 million metric tons of rare earth reserves.

Vietnam – Has 22 million metric tons, making it a rising supplier.

India – Contains 6.9 million metric tons.

Australia – A key producer with 5.7 million metric tons.

Russia – Holds 10 million metric tons.

United States – While not a leading producer, it has 1.8 million metric tons.

Greenland – An emerging supplier with 1.5 million metric tons.

China remains the largest supplier, but countries like Brazil, Vietnam, and Australia are working to expand their production to reduce reliance on Chinese exports.

Ukraine?

Ukraine reportedly has significant reserves of rare earth elements, including titanium, lithium, graphite, and uranium. These minerals are crucial for industries such as defence, aerospace, and green energy.

However, the ongoing conflict with Russia has disrupted access to many of these deposits, with some now under Russian control.

Despite these challenges, Ukraine is being considered for strategic raw material projects by the European Union, aiming to strengthen supply chains and reduce reliance on China. The country’s mineral wealth could play a key role in post-war recovery and global supply diversification

Greenland?

Greenland is emerging as a key player in the global rare earth supply chain. The European Union has recently selected Greenland for new raw material projects aimed at securing critical minerals.

The island holds significant deposits of rare earth elements, including graphite, which is essential for battery production.

However, Greenland faces challenges in developing its rare earth industry, including harsh terrain, environmental concerns, and geopolitical tensions.

The U.S. and EU are keen to reduce reliance on China, which dominates rare earth processing, and Greenland’s resources could play a crucial role in this effort.

Greenland has indicated it has little desire to be transformed into a mining territory. It could have little choice.

Canada?

Canada is emerging as a significant player in the rare earth supply chain. The country has over 15.2 million tonnes of rare earth oxide reserves, making it one of the largest known sources globally.

Recently, Canada opened its first commercial rare earth elements refinery, marking a major step toward reducing reliance on Chinese processing.

The facility, located in Saskatchewan, aims to produce 400 tonnes of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) metals per year, enough for 500,000 electric vehicles annually.

Additionally, Canada is investing in critical minerals infrastructure to unlock rare earth development in Northern Quebec and Labrador.

The government has allocated $10 million to support mining projects, including the Strange Lake Rare Earth Project, which contains globally significant quantities of dysprosium, neodymium, praseodymium, and terbium.

Rare earth materials are a necessity for our modern technological lives – big tech tells us this. The hunger for these products needs to be fed, and China, right now, does the feeding.

And the beast needs to be fed.

India’s Rare Earths Future: A growing contender in a strategic market

Rare Earth Elements

As the world transitions toward cleaner technologies and digital connectivity, rare earth elements (REEs) have emerged as vital components in everything from electric vehicles and wind turbines to smartphones and defence systems and of course AI.

Currently, China dominates the global supply chain, accounting for over 60% of global rare earth production and an even greater share of refining capacity.

But India, rich in untapped reserves and increasingly assertive in its industrial strategy, is positioning itself to become a major player in this crucial sector.

India possesses the world’s fifth-largest reserves of rare earths, largely located in coastal monazite sands.

For decades, however, its output has remained modest, constrained by limited infrastructure, outdated regulations, and a lack of downstream processing capabilities. That is changing.

In recent years, the Indian government has taken clear steps to ramp up domestic production and attract investment.

One significant move was allowing private and foreign players into the exploration and processing of REEs -previously controlled by a single government-run firm.

Coupled with India’s broader push to diversify supply chains away from China, this signals a shift in ambition.

India is also pursuing strategic partnerships. Collaborations with countries such as Australia and Japan – both of which have rare earth expertise and a shared desire to counterbalance Chinese dominance – are paving the way for technology transfers and joint ventures.

Moreover, India’s participation in the Quad (with the U.S., Australia, and Japan) adds a geopolitical dimension to these efforts.

Challenges remain. India still lacks the sophisticated separation and refining technologies that make rare earths commercially viable. Environmental concerns around mining also demand a careful, sustainable approach.

Rare Earth Elements table – top 10 producers

Total global reserves are estimated at approximately 131 million metric tons. See worlpopulationreview.

Yet, with incentives under the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes, and growing demand for localised electronics and green tech manufacturing, momentum is building.

So, is India likely to become a major competitor? Not overnight. But ‘possible’ is rapidly morphing into ‘plausible.’ As the global rare earths map continues to shift—fueled by geopolitics, technological change, and strategic realignment – India is no longer on the sidelines.

Whether it becomes a global leader or a key alternative supplier, its role is poised to expand.

The world should watch closely—not just for the metals it may mine, but for the strategic leverage they may bring.

And we have Greenland and Ukraine reserves yet to be discovered?

China suffers U.S. tariff driven falls in exports and increased deflation concerns

China exports to U.S. suffer due to tariffs

China’s economic landscape is facing mounting challenges as exports to the United States plummet and consumer prices decline, sparking fears of deflation.

The latest trade data reveals that Chinese exports to the U.S. fell by 34.5% in May 2025, marking the sharpest drop in over five years. This decline comes despite a temporary trade truce that paused most tariffs for 90 days.

China’s consumer prices have continued their downward trend, raising concerns about deflation and its long-term impact on the economy.

The sharp fall in exports is largely attributed to high U.S. tariffs and weakening demand. While China’s overall exports grew by 4.8%, shipments to the U.S. suffered significantly, reflecting the ongoing trade tensions between the two economic giants.

Imports from the U.S. also dropped by 18%, further shrinking China’s trade surplus with America. In response, Chinese exporters are shifting their focus to other markets, particularly Southeast Asia and Europe, where demand remains relatively strong.

China’s CPI reading

At the same time, China’s consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% in May 2025, deepening concerns about deflation. Deflation, the opposite of inflation, can lead to lower corporate profits, wage cuts, and job losses, creating a vicious cycle of economic stagnation.

The decline in consumer prices is largely driven by weak domestic demand, exacerbated by the ongoing real estate crisis. Many Chinese consumers are hesitant to spend, fearing further declines in property values and economic uncertainty.

China’s rare earth materials olive branch

China appears to have offered U.S. and European auto manufacturers a reprieve after industry groups warned of increasing production threats over a rare earth shortage.

China’s Ministry of Commerce on Saturday 7th June 2025 reportedly said it was willing to establish a so-called ‘green channel’ for eligible export licence applications to expedite the approval process to European Union firms.