Observe. Think. Chat. Do. Trade. Repeat…
Rolls-Royce, a prominent jet engine manufacturer for commercial aircraft along with power systems for ships and submarines and other major projects posted an underlying operating profit of £1.6 billion in 2023, compared to £652 million in 2022.
Rolls-Royce was the top performer in the UK’s FTSE 100 in 2023, climbing over 200% on the back of a profit forecast upgrade and the announcement in November 2023 that profits ‘could‘ quadruple by 2027.
The company also expects sales to grow by 3% in 2024/25 but warned that attacks on shipping in the Red Sea could cause delays and disruptions to its stock supply.
NEXT’s full price sales were up 5.7% in the nine weeks to 30th December, £38 million ahead of its previous guidance of 2%.
Is this an indication of better news for the UK high street in general?
Congratulations NEXT.
Shares of Nvidia closed up 2.3% at an all-time high of $504 on Monday 20th November 2023. The record comes ahead of the company’s Q3 results due Tuesday 21st November 2023, when analysts are expecting to see revenue growth of over 170%.
And, if that’s not enough, the forecast for Q4, according to some analysts, is likely to show a number close to 200% growth.
Nvidia is still by far the market leader in GPUs for AI, but high prices and competition are fast becoming an issue.
Can Nvidia continue the AI ride and hold this remarkable market share position?
The Omaha-based conglomerate’s operating earnings totalled $10.761 billion last quarter, 40.6% higher than from the same quarter in 2022.
Berkshire held a record level of cash at the end of September 2023 of $157.2 billion.
The ‘Oracle of Omaha’ has been taking advantage of surging bond yields, buying up short-term Treasury bills yielding at least 5%.
Geico, the crown jewel of Berkshire’s insurance empire, reported another profitable quarter.
Warren Buffet probably the greatest consistent investor the world has ever seen.
The chief executive of JP Morgan Chase told investors recently that he was concerned about the risks to the economy from rising geo-political tensions. He said wars in Ukraine and Israel could hit energy and food prices, and global trade.
Thousands have been killed in Israel and Gaza after an unprecedented attack by Palestinian militant group Hamas. Mr Dimon, who leads America’s biggest bank, was speaking as the firm revealed its latest quarterly results.
The bank reported $13 billion (£10.7 billion) in profit over the three months to September 2023, up 35% from the same period in 2022.
Dimon said the bank had benefited from U.S. households and business in healthy financial shape but warned that he remained cautious about the state of the global economy, given the many risks emerging. What about the effect of interest rate increases on profits the bank has benefitted from too?
‘My caution is that we are facing so many uncertainties out there,‘ he reportedly said. So helpful Mr. Dimon. He told investors they should be prepared to face higher interest rates, persistent inflation, as well as fallout from the violent conflicts.
I wouldn’t necessarily call his comments very intuitive – interest, inflation and conflict is there for all to see.
Shame he didn’t use his super magical powers of detection to get ahead of the inflation problem earlier.
Buying the dip means purchasing an asset, usually a stock, when its price has dropped. The expectation is that the drop is a short-term anomaly, and the asset’s price will soon go back up. It is a strategy that some traders and investors use to take advantage of price fluctuations and profit from market rebounds.
However, buying the dip can also be risky, as there is no guarantee that the price will recover or that the asset is not in a long-term downtrend. Therefore, it is important to do your research, use indicators, and have a risk management plan before buying the dip.
The S&P 500 is still ‘buy the dip’ for the next six months,’ some analysts suggest.
In some reports, it is expected that the profit cycle will be positive over the next six months and for data to improve before a consumer-spending led downturn leads to a selloff in U.S. stocks! That’s the ‘general’ readout.
Corporate profit expectations are behind much of that forecast for stocks. Analysts expect profit growth to accelerate over the next two quarters and see the S&P 500 in a range of 4,050 to 4,750. A mild recession in early or middle 2024 should lead to a higher risk premium, pushing the S&P 500 back close to 3,800. This is all conjecture.
Other analysts doubt the earnings uplift potential and anticipate stocks to fall back sooner as PE ratios sit at an already high level.
My view, for what it’s worth, is for stocks to climb for the time being through into the New Year and then to face pullback.
Truth is, no one knows. We can all make educated guesses.
Just watch the markets and be ready for the fall – that is coming for sure!
Rolls-Royce share price soared by 20% in july 2023 after it raised its profit guidance and reported strong demand in its jet engine and defence businesses.
The company, which makes engines for aeroplanes, ships and submarines, repoertedly said it expects to make between £1.2 billion and £1.4 billion in underlying operating profit this year, up from its previous forecast of £800 million to £1 billion.
The profit upgrade reflects the improvement in Rolls-Royce’s operations under its new chief executive, who took over in January with a mandate to turn the companyaround. A transformation programme was launched to boost productivity, efficiency and innovation across all divisions. It appears to be working.
One of the main drivers of Rolls-Royce’s recovery is the revival in air travel and flying hours as Covid restrictions were eased. The company charges customers for the number of hours its jet engines run, which have dramatically rebounded from the slump caused by the pandemic. Rolls-Royce said it expects to generate £750 million in free cash flow this year, up from its previous target of £500 million.
Another factor behind Rolls-Royce’s growth is the increased defence spending following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The company makes propulsion systems for Royal Navy warships and submarines, as well as engines for military aircraft. Rolls-Royce reportedly said its defence unit had delivered ‘exceptional‘ performance and secured new contracts.
Rolls-Royce’s share price hit its highest level since March 2020, when the prospect of travel bans caused aviation-related stocks to plunge. The stock has almost doubled in value this year, making it the best-performing stock on the FTSE 100 over the past six months.
Analysts and investors have welcomed the signs of progress at Rolls-Royce, which had struggled with profitability and cash flow issues even before the pandemic.
Rolls-Royce is scheduled to report its half-year results next week, which are expected to show profits of between £660 million and £680 million some analysts suggest, more than double market expectations. The company said it remains confident in its medium-term outlook and its ability to deliver value for customers and shareholders.
Definitely one to watch. It’s been on my ‘share radar’ for a couple years now. Share price hit intraday high of £1.94 on 28th July 2023
Profit for the six months ending in June 2023 for British Gas owner Centrica rose to around £1.34bn from £262m a year earlier. The rise in profits came from the company’s nuclear and oil and gas business, rather than from the British Gas energy supply business which performed much worse. The average annual British Gas profit has been £584m in recent years.
However, the profit boom is surprisingly down to a ‘tweak’ to the regulator Ofgem’s energy price cap that allows the supplier to recover elements of the costs of supplying its 10 million customers during the energy crisis.
The supplier’s current profit highs are likely to upset consumer groups that have campaigned against the supplier’s treatment of vulnerable energy customers as record energy market prices forced millions into fuel poverty. Some have called the profit making ‘legalised robbery’, and demanded to bring energy into public ownership.
Centrica plans to raise its interim dividend by around a third but remarks that its underlying profitability will ease significantly in the second half of the year. Energy firms saw their profit margins hit last year when wholesale prices surged in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Wholesale prices also jumped as th UK emerged from the dark cloud Covid as markets undicated that the UK was ill prepared for the enconomic recovery. Brexit blues didn’t help either.
The energy price cap remains £1,000 above its pre-pandemic average, despite oil and natural gas costs easing significantly. It is predicted by industry ‘experts’ to remain around the £2,000 a year average for the coming winter months, maintaining excessive pressure on household budgets.
Centrica chief executive reportedly said that a lot of the firm’s profits were ‘going back into society’.
‘I know it’s difficult to see the word profits, or dividends, or similar words when people are having a tough time. I’m very conscious of this,’ he reportedly said.
‘Bear in mind, over the next couple of years we are expecting to pay a windfall tax of ‘probably‘ well over £600m on our UK gas business off the back of the profits that we’re seeing, so a lot of this is going back into society.’
A business needs to make profits otherwise there is no business. It exits to make a profit and to supply a service or product – but it is about how that business makes its profit, isn’t it?
Token windfall tax temporarily slapped on by the UK government is only payable on UK profits. Oil and gas recovery companies will only pay a tax windfall on UK related profits not on overseas returns!
Profits from fossil fuel recovery invested in greener energy for the future – that’s a topic for another article.