Markets rally as EU–U.S. trade deal eases some tariff tension

U.S. EU tariff trade deal

European and American financial markets rallied following the announcement of a new trade pact between the EU and the U.S on Sunday 27th July 2025., easing months of escalating tensions.

The deal introduces a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the United States—well below the previously threatened 30% rate—providing greater predictability across key sectors.

Global markets surged on Monday following the announcement of a landmark trade agreement between the European Union and the United States, announced by President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at Trump’s Turnberry golf resort in Scotland.

The deal imposes a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the U.S., significantly lower than the previously threatened 30% rate.

It would appear that Trump’s global tariff rate will end up between 15% – 20%

While still a sharp increase from pre-2025 levels—when many goods faced tariffs under 3%—the agreement has been hailed as a pragmatic compromise that averts a full-blown transatlantic trade war.

In exchange, the EU has reportedly committed to $750 billion in U.S. energy purchases and $600 billion in investment into the American economy, with further spending on military equipment also expected.

European negotiators secured zero tariffs on strategic goods such as aircraft components, select chemicals, and semiconductor equipment

Strategic exemptions for aircraft components, semiconductors and select chemicals help preserve supply chain efficiency, while agricultural and consumer goods will adapt to the new rate over time.

In return, the EU has reportedly committed to over $1.3 trillion in investments focused on U.S. infrastructure, renewable energy and defence technologies.

Investors responded positively to the agreement as futures surged

  • The FTSE 100 futures hit 9,172 overnight
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 1.3%.
  • DAX hit overnight futures high of: 24,550
  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq Tech 100 hit overnight futures highs of: 6,422 and 23,440
  • Wall Street’s major indices extended futures gains, boosted by trade optimism and tech strength.

However, European stocks trimmed back ‘futures’ gains after the opening bell.

While some concerns remain over unresolved steel and pharmaceutical tariffs, analysts view the pact as a turning point that restores confidence.

The deal sets the stage for further cooperation on digital standards, regulation and intellectual property later in 2025.

This step toward economic stability is expected to foster stronger ties and benefit export-driven industries across both regions.

Trump is getting his deals, but how good are they really?

China’s restriction of rare earth materials hurts

Chinas rare earth material dominance

China’s recent export restrictions on rare earth elements are sending shockwaves through multiple industries worldwide.

As the curbs continue to take effect, sectors reliant on these critical minerals—including automotive, defence, and clean energy—are beginning to feel the strain.

China controls about 60–70% of global rare earth production and nearly 90% of the refining capacity.

Even when rare earths are mined elsewhere, they’re often sent to China for processing, since few countries have the infrastructure or environmental tolerance to handle the complex and polluting refining process.

In April 2025, China introduced export controls on seven key rare earth elements and permanent magnets, citing national interests and responding to rising trade tensions—particularly with the U.S.

Automotive industry in crisis

The auto sector is among the hardest hit. Rare earth elements are essential for both combustion engines and electric vehicles, particularly in the production of magnets used in motors and batteries.

European auto suppliers have already reported production shutdowns due to dwindling inventories.

Germany’s car industry, a global powerhouse, has reportedly warned that further disruptions could bring manufacturing to a standstill.

Japan’s Nissan and Suzuki have also expressed concerns, with Suzuki reportedly halting production of its Swift model due to shortages.

Defence and technology sectors at risk

China’s dominance in rare earth refining, controlling nearly 90% of global capacity, poses a strategic challenge for defense industries.

The U.S. military relies heavily on these materials for missile guidance systems, radar technology, and advanced electronics.

With nearly 78% of defence platforms dependent on Chinese-processed rare earths, the restrictions expose vulnerabilities in national security.

Clean energy ambitions under threat

The clean energy transition depends on rare earths for wind turbines, solar panels, and electric vehicle batteries.

China’s curbs threaten global efforts to reduce carbon emissions, forcing countries to scramble for alternative sources. India’s electric vehicle sector, for instance, faces potential setbacks as manufacturers struggle to secure supplies.

As industries grapple with these disruptions, governments and corporations are urgently seeking solutions. Whether through diplomatic negotiations or investment in domestic rare earth production, the race is on to mitigate the fallout from China’s tightening grip on these critical resources.

Several countries have significant rare earth reserves and can supply these materials in high quantities.

Top rare earth materials suppliers

China – The dominant player, with 44 million metric tons of reserves.

Brazil – Holds 21 million metric tons of rare earth reserves.

Vietnam – Has 22 million metric tons, making it a rising supplier.

India – Contains 6.9 million metric tons.

Australia – A key producer with 5.7 million metric tons.

Russia – Holds 10 million metric tons.

United States – While not a leading producer, it has 1.8 million metric tons.

Greenland – An emerging supplier with 1.5 million metric tons.

China remains the largest supplier, but countries like Brazil, Vietnam, and Australia are working to expand their production to reduce reliance on Chinese exports.

Ukraine?

Ukraine reportedly has significant reserves of rare earth elements, including titanium, lithium, graphite, and uranium. These minerals are crucial for industries such as defence, aerospace, and green energy.

However, the ongoing conflict with Russia has disrupted access to many of these deposits, with some now under Russian control.

Despite these challenges, Ukraine is being considered for strategic raw material projects by the European Union, aiming to strengthen supply chains and reduce reliance on China. The country’s mineral wealth could play a key role in post-war recovery and global supply diversification

Greenland?

Greenland is emerging as a key player in the global rare earth supply chain. The European Union has recently selected Greenland for new raw material projects aimed at securing critical minerals.

The island holds significant deposits of rare earth elements, including graphite, which is essential for battery production.

However, Greenland faces challenges in developing its rare earth industry, including harsh terrain, environmental concerns, and geopolitical tensions.

The U.S. and EU are keen to reduce reliance on China, which dominates rare earth processing, and Greenland’s resources could play a crucial role in this effort.

Greenland has indicated it has little desire to be transformed into a mining territory. It could have little choice.

Canada?

Canada is emerging as a significant player in the rare earth supply chain. The country has over 15.2 million tonnes of rare earth oxide reserves, making it one of the largest known sources globally.

Recently, Canada opened its first commercial rare earth elements refinery, marking a major step toward reducing reliance on Chinese processing.

The facility, located in Saskatchewan, aims to produce 400 tonnes of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) metals per year, enough for 500,000 electric vehicles annually.

Additionally, Canada is investing in critical minerals infrastructure to unlock rare earth development in Northern Quebec and Labrador.

The government has allocated $10 million to support mining projects, including the Strange Lake Rare Earth Project, which contains globally significant quantities of dysprosium, neodymium, praseodymium, and terbium.

Rare earth materials are a necessity for our modern technological lives – big tech tells us this. The hunger for these products needs to be fed, and China, right now, does the feeding.

And the beast needs to be fed.

Trump announces 25% tariffs on car imports to U.S. and pledges pharma tariffs to come

Trump's Tariffs

Trump’s tariffs have been a cornerstone of his trade policy, aimed at protecting American industries and reducing trade deficits

These measures include tariffs on steel, aluminum, and a wide range of goods from countries like China, Canada, and the European Union.

While supporters argue that these tariffs have bolstered domestic manufacturing and created jobs, critics highlight the retaliatory tariffs imposed by other nations, which have affected American exporters.

President Donald Trump said he will soon announce tariffs targeting automobiles and pharmaceuticals.

Trump later added the timber and semiconductor industries to his list.

It was unclear whether the newly announced sector-specific tariffs would take effect after the tit-for-tat ‘reciprocal tariffs’ – which are set to take effect on for 2nd April 2025

The president’s latest comments at a Cabinet meeting came hours after he unveiled a plan to place 25% tariffs on all countries that buy oil and gas from Venezuela.

Trump’s tariffs have had widespread economic effects, both domestically and globally

Higher Prices for Consumers

Tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, which often leads to higher prices for consumers. This can reduce purchasing power and affect living standards.

Impact on Businesses

Companies relying on imported materials face higher production costs due to tariffs. Some businesses may pass these costs onto consumers, while others might struggle to remain competitive.

Retaliatory Measures

Countries affected by U.S. tariffs often impose their own tariffs on American goods. This can hurt U.S. exporters and lead to trade wars.

Economic Growth

Studies suggest that tariffs can reduce GDP growth. For example, the U.S. GDP has been estimated to decrease by 0.4% due to these measures.

Employment

While tariffs aim to protect domestic jobs, they can also lead to job losses in industries affected by higher input costs or reduced export opportunities.

Global Trade Dynamics

Tariffs disrupt international trade relationships, leading to uncertainty and reduced investment in affected sectors.

These measures have sparked retaliatory tariffs from other countries, creating a complex web of trade disputes further sowing chaos and unrest.

Markets have reacted negatively to Trumps tariffs.

One thing is certain regarding the imposition of Trump’s tariffs – consumers suffer!

Euro zone economy grows 0.4% in third quarter – better than expected

Euro Zone GDP

The euro zone’s economy expanded by 0.4% in the third quarter, according to flash figures released by the European Union’s statistics office (Eurostat) on Wednesday 30th October 2024.

Economists had anticipated a growth of 0.2%, following a 0.3% increase in the second quarter.

Analysts predict that euro zone growth may pick up cautiously in the upcoming months, in light of lower interest rates and subsiding inflation.

At its October 2024 meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced rates for the third time this year, following a final reading of September’s EU headline inflation at 1.8%.

The ECB pointed to sustained indications of sluggish activity in the euro area as a significant reason for the rate cut in October.

Markets have completely factored in another 0.25% reduction by the ECB for its final meeting of the year in December 2024.

Germany, the largest economy in the euro zone, reported an unexpected 0.2% growth in the third quarter, as per figures released on Wednesday 30th October 2024. This growth helped the country steer clear of the recession predicted by some economists.

European Union vote to slap tariff charge on Chinese EV imports

EU EV Charge

On Friday 4th October 2024, the European Union voted to implement definitive tariffs on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) made in China

‘The European Commission’s proposal to levy definitive countervailing duties on imports of Chinese battery electric vehicles has garnered the requisite support from EU Member States to proceed with the imposition of tariffs,‘ stated the EU.

Initially, the EU announced in June its intention to impose higher tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles, citing substantial unfair subsidies that threaten economic harm to European electric vehicle manufacturers.

The EU disclosed specific duties for companies based on their level of cooperation and the information provided during the bloc’s investigation into China’s EV production, which commenced last year. Provisional duties have been in effect since early July.

Following the receipt of ‘substantiated comments on the provisional measures‘ from stakeholders, the European Commission updated its tariff strategy in September 2024.

A spokesperson from China’s Ministry of Commerce indicated that Beijing maintains its stance that the EU’s investigation into China’s electric vehicle industry subsidies has led to predetermined outcomes – suggesting that the EU is fostering unfair competition.

China responded by vowing a suitable response.