U.S. consumer confidence falls the most in three years

U.S. consumer

In September 2024, consumer sentiment plummeted, marking the most significant drop in over three years, driven by escalating concerns over employment and business conditions, according to a report by the Conference Board released on Tuesday 24th September 2024.

The consumer confidence index reportedly fell to 98.7 from 105.6 in August 2024, marking the largest one-month drop since August 2021. This was contrary to the forecast of 104 and a stark contrast to the 132.6 reading in February 2020, just before the Covid pandemic’s onset.

All five components surveyed by the organisation declined this month, with the most significant decrease observed in the age bracket of 35-54 with incomes under $50,000.

Concerning

“Consumer evaluations of the present business conditions have turned negative, and the outlook on the current labour market has further weakened. There is also a growing pessimism about future labour market conditions, business conditions, and income prospects,” the Conference Board’s chief economist reportedly commented.

This significant dip in the confidence index last occurred as inflation began its ascent to the highest point in over four decades.

Following the announcement, stocks experienced temporary declines, and Treasury yields decreased.

U.S. PPI wholesale prices rose 0.2% in August 2024

U.S. PPI data

In August 2024, wholesale prices saw an increase that was roughly in line with expectations, marking the final inflation data point before the Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest rate cut due on 18th September 2024

The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Thursday 12th September 2024 that the producer price index (PPI), which measures the prices received by producers for goods and services for final demand, increased by 0.2% for the month, matching the consensus estimate.

Excluding food and energy, the PPI experienced a 0.3% increase, slightly above the 0.2% consensus estimate. This core increase persisted even when trade services were removed from the calculation.

UK retailers reported a 0.5% rebound in July 2024

Retail UK

UK retail sales up

The rise came after a significant drop in sales volumes, which track the amount purchased, in June due to unfavorable weather affecting demand.

Last month, department stores and retailers of sports equipment saw an uptick in the volume of goods sold thanks to the Euro football tournament.

However, the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which provided the data, noted that it was a challenging month for clothing and furniture retailers, with fuel sales declining even as prices at the pump decreased.

Slower and smaller-than-expected rate cuts. A slowing U.S. economy and a potential AI bubble – does this all add up to a coming bear market?

Witches' stocks cauldron

The stock markets mix of toil and trouble is in the cauldron ready for a bear market in 2025, if not before.

Why?

  • Fed to resist reducing rates to the market’s desired 3.50%.
  • Profits unlikely from now on to fulfill expectations, because the U.S. economy is slowing.
  • AI sector is in or close to ‘bubble territory’.
  • Debt.
  • Geopolitical concerns.

These concerns are now all combining, and it will likely add-up to a bear market of around 25% in 2025 (this is my best guess).

Remember – make your own decisions and always, always do your own careful research. Seek professional financial advice if in doubt.

RESEARCH! RESEARCH! RESEARCH!