Tag: Consumer

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U.S. consumer confidence falls the most in three years

U.S. consumer

In September 2024, consumer sentiment plummeted, marking the most significant drop in over three years, driven by escalating concerns over employment and business conditions, according to a report by the Conference Board released on Tuesday 24th September 2024.

The consumer confidence index reportedly fell to 98.7 from 105.6 in August 2024, marking the largest one-month drop since August 2021. This was contrary to the forecast of 104 and a stark contrast to the 132.6 reading in February 2020, just before the Covid pandemic’s onset.

All five components surveyed by the organisation declined this month, with the most significant decrease observed in the age bracket of 35-54 with incomes under $50,000.

Concerning

“Consumer evaluations of the present business conditions have turned negative, and the outlook on the current labour market has further weakened. There is also a growing pessimism about future labour market conditions, business conditions, and income prospects,” the Conference Board’s chief economist reportedly commented.

This significant dip in the confidence index last occurred as inflation began its ascent to the highest point in over four decades.

Following the announcement, stocks experienced temporary declines, and Treasury yields decreased.

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U.S. consumer spending improved in July 2024 as retail sales increased by 1% – better than forecast

U.S. retail

In July 2024, U.S. consumer spending exceeded expectations, and inflation pressures continued to ease, as reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Thursday 15th August 2024.

Retail sales in the U.S. rose by 1% for the month, with advanced figures adjusted for seasonality but not for inflation. This surpassed the 0.3% increase anticipated. The initially flat reported sales for June 2024 were revised to a 0.2% decrease.

Removing auto-related items, sales saw a 0.4% rise, which was substantially more favourable than the predicted 0.1%.

The number of weekly jobless claims fell to 227,000, a drop of 7,000 from the preceding week, and was below the forecasted 235,000.

Markets have responded positively to all this good news, and together with other favourable developments, it appears increasingly likely that the Federal Reserve will have no reason other than to cut rates in September 2024.