U.S. to ban some U.S. investments in China tech sector

U.S. AI tech restrictions plan proposed

The U.S. will ban American investment in some areas of China’s high-tech sector, including artificial intelligence, adding to strained relations between the two superpowers.

U.S. firms will also be invited to disclose what investments they make in China in high-tech sectors.The much-anticipated move gives the U.S. government new power to screen foreign dealings by private companies. The U.S. said the measure would be narrowly targeted. However, it is poised to further chill economic relations between the world’s two largest economies. China has reportedly said it was ‘very disappointed‘. The U.S. ‘has continuously escalated suppression and restrictions on China‘. He added that White House claims that the US was not seeking to hurt China’s economy or separate the two countries did not match its actions. ‘We urge the US side to honour its words‘.

Biden order

The order by U.S. President Biden formally kicks off the push to introduce rules to restrict, even prevent American businesses from investing in firms from ‘countries of concern‘ that are active in advanced semiconductors, quantum computing and certain areas of artificial intelligence.

The government will also require U.S. firms to notify the Treasury Department of investments in firms working on a wider range of artificial intelligence and semiconductor technology.

AI tech
U.S. restriction on AI related tech knowledge to China

The rules are not expected to apply to ‘portfolio’ investments, in which firms invest passively in companies via the stock market, but are focused on active investments made by private equity and venture capital businesses. They will now enter a public ‘reflection’ period, which is expected to further clarify what kinds of investments are off-limits. The rules are not expected to go into effect for sometime yet. This new ‘order’ is quite a big deal.

In a briefing with reporters, senior administration officials said the measure was a ‘national security action, not an economic one‘. They said the U.S. remained committed to open investment.

Investment control

Controls on outbound investment are rare among advanced economies, currently present only in Japan and Korea, according to a 2022 report.

In the U.S., prior restrictions on China trade have relied on limiting sales of sensitive technology by U.S. firms and screening Chinese investments in American companies. The Trump administration had also barred investments in firms tied to China’s military.

The latest measure has widespread support in Washington, where it is seen as fixing a regulatory gap concerning financial flows that risks allowing American money and know-how to to flow into China.

International support

The U.S. has been trying to build international support for the investment curbs with some signs of success.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in May 2023 said the UK government would consider curbs on outbound investment; the European Commission put forward a proposal focused on investments in sensitive technologies earlier this summer. It is not clear how significantly the order would affect flows of investment.

China was the number two destination for foreign investment in 2022, behind the U.S., but many reports suggest money flowing into the country from the U.S. and elsewhere has dropped sharply as geopolitical relations sour. In the UK, a recent survey by the Institute of Directors found that one in five UK importers had already switched investments away from the country due to geopolitical tensions.

China has responded to the curbs with its own rules, including limits on exports of some critical minerals used to make computer chips.

Gallium and Germanium
Gallium and Germanium considered critical elements required in the production of microchips

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who visited China in July 2023 in an attempt to ease tensions, said last month she did not think the coming curbs would have a fundamental impact on the investment climate in the country.

Will these measures likely damage the U.S. in the future by escalating issues and restricting the U.S. from other shared advancements in technology – only time will tell.

Tech’ rivalry

U.S. and China are two of the world’s leading powers in artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors, which are essential components for many AI applications such as self-driving cars, smart phones, and cloud computing. However, the two countries have also been engaged in a fierce competition and rivalry over these technologies, as they seek to gain an edge in innovation, security, and economic growth. Some of the issues that have caused tensions between U.S. and China include trade disputes, intellectual property theft, cyberattacks, human rights violations, and military expansion.

AI chips

AI semiconductors are designed to perform complex calculations and tasks that require high levels of intelligence, such as natural language processing, computer vision, and machine learning.

These chips can be classified into two types: general-purpose chips that can run various AI algorithms, and specialized chips that are optimized for specific AI functions or domains.

The race is on…

Alarm bells sound for China as data indicates deflationary pressure

Deflation

Deflation or inflation?

China’s consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3% in August from a year ago, while the producer price index (PPI) fell by 4.4% last month. This is the first time since February 2021 that the CPI has fallen, and the 10th consecutive month that the PPI has contracted. This indicates that China is experiencing deflation pressure as demand in the world’s second-largest economy weakens.

Factors that contribute to the deflation risk

  • A prolonged property market slump, which reduces investment and consumption.
  • A plunging demand for exports, due to the global economic slowdown and trade tensions with the United States.
  • A subdued consumer spending, due to the coronavirus pandemic and rising unemployment.

Deflation can have negative effects on the economy

  • Lowering profits and incomes for businesses and households.
  • Increasing the real value of debt and making it harder to repay.
  • Reducing incentives for investment and innovation.
  • Creating a downward spiral of falling prices and demand.

The Chinese government and the central bank have taken some measures to stimulate the economy and prevent deflation.

  • Cutting interest rates and reserve requirement ratios for banks.
  • Increasing fiscal spending and issuing special bonds for infrastructure projects.
  • Providing tax relief and subsidies for businesses and consumers.

However, these measures have not been enough to offset the deflationary pressure, and some analysts expect more monetary easing and fiscal support in the coming months.

Deflation definition

Deflation is the opposite of inflation. It means that the prices of goods and services are going down over time. This may sound good for consumers, who can buy more with the same amount of money. But deflation can also have negative effects on the economy.

Deflation can be caused by a decrease in the supply of money and credit, a fall in demand, or an increase in productivity. To prevent or reverse deflation, the central bank and the government can use monetary and fiscal policies to stimulate the economy, much the same as we are now seeing to deal with ‘inflation’.

China’s exports take a dive!

China’s exports plunge

According to latest figures the country’s trade fell more sharply than expected in July 2023, as both global and domestic demand receded amid the pandemic and ongoing tensions with the United States.

China’s exports fell by 14.5% in July 2023 from a year ago, the biggest drop since February 2020, while imports dropped by 12.4%, according to Chinese data. This was much worse than the 5% decline in both exports and imports analysts were expecting.

Poor trade performance

Some of the reasons for the poor trade performance are the rising costs of raw materials, the global shortage of semiconductors, the Covid-19 outbreaks in some regions, and the U.S. sanctions on some Chinese companies. 

China’s trade with the U.S., its largest trading partner, fell in the first seven months of the year. The trade slump has added pressure on China to provide more support for the economy, which has lost momentum after a strong recovery in late 2020 and early 2021.

China’s trade drop July 2023 more than expected

China’s trade situation is also closely watched by other countries, as it reflects the health of the global economy and demand for goods. Some analysts have warned that China’s trade slowdown could signal a broader weakening of consumer spending in developed economies, which could lead to recessions later this year.  China’s trade data also has implications for inflation and monetary policy, as lower import prices could ease inflationary pressures and allow central banks to keep interest rates low.

China’s export to the U.S. and EU down

China’s exports to the U.S. plunged by 23.1% year-on-year in July 2023, while those to the European Union fell by 20.6%, CNBC analysis of customs data showed. Exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations fell by 21.4%, according to the data. Chinese imports of crude oil dropped by 20.8% in July from a year ago, while imports of integrated circuits fell by nearly 17%.

China’s imports from Russia fell by around 8% in July 2023 from a year ago, the data showed.

A slowdown in U.S. and other major economies’ growth has dragged down Chinese exports this year. Meanwhile, China’s domestic demand has remained subdued.

Growth areas

Among the few higher-value export categories that saw a significant increase in the first seven months of the year were: cars, refined oil, suitcases and bags. And for imports: paper pulp, coal products and edible vegetable oil were among the categories seeing significant growth in the January to July period from a year ago.

What China’s new stance in microchip battle means

Gallium and Germanium

Gallium and germanium

No, nor me – never heard of them, but they are extremely important elements needed in microchip manufacturing and China is the world’s largest producer.

Germanium and gallium are two elements that are used in the production of semiconductor chips, which are essential for various electronic devices and technologies. They have different properties and applications, and they are both considered critical materials.

Germanium

Germanium is a metalloid, which means it has properties of both metals and non-metals. It is a shiny, hard, gray-white element that is brittle and can be cut easily with a knife. It has a high melting point of 938°C and a low boiling point of 2830°C. It is mainly obtained as a by-product of zinc production, but it can also be extracted from coal.

Germanium is used in, solar cells, fibre optic cables, infrared lenses light-emitting diodes (LEDs), and transistors. It is also used in some alloys to improve their strength and hardness. Germanium is essential for the defence and renewable energy sectors, as well as for space technologies. It can resist cosmic radiation better than silicon, and it can enhance the performance and efficiency of some semiconductors.

Gallium

Gallium is a metal that has a very low melting point of 29.8°C, which means it can melt in your hand. It is a soft, silvery-white element that can be easily cut with a knife. It has a high boiling point of 2403°C.  It is mainly obtained as a by-product of processing bauxite and zinc ores.

Gallium and Germanium considered critical elements required in the production of microchips

Gallium is used in the electronics industry to produce heat-resistant semiconductor wafers that can operate at higher frequencies than silicon-based ones. It is also used in LEDs, solar panels, microwave devices, sensors, and lasers. Gallium is important for the development of new technologies such as electric vehicles, high-end radio communications, and Blu-Ray players. It can also improve the power consumption and reliability of some semiconductors.

China the largest producer

China is the largest producer and exporter of both germanium and gallium, accounting for about 60% and 80% of the global supply. However, China has recently announced new export restrictions on these two elements, requiring special licences for exporters. This move is seen as a response to the western sanctions on China’s access to advanced microchip technology. 

The export curbs could affect the global supply chain of semiconductor chips and have implications for various industries and markets

AI race gathers momentum as China’s Baidu claims its Ernie Bot is Better than ChatGPT on key tests

AI Robots Chatting

Baidu said its AI system called Ernie 3.5 outperformed OpenAI’s ChatGPT and GPT4 in several key areas.

  • The Chat Bot was revealed in March 2023 and has since been publicly testing it in China. The chatbot is based on Baidu’s foundational AI model called ERNIE.
  • Baidu’s advancements underscore the intense competition taking place in the area of generative AI with technology giants in the US and China rapidly advancing their AI models.

 ERNIE Enhanced Language RepresentatioN with Informative Entities

US and China AI Bots go head to head

Ernie was first introduced in 2019, and since then, Baidu has been improving and upgrading it with new versions. The latest version, Ernie 3.5, was announced in June 2023, and it claims to outperform OpenAI’s ChatGPT and GPT 4 in several key areas

Baidu’s Ernie is an artificial intelligence (AI) model that powers the company’s chatbot service, Ernie Bot. Ernie stands for Enhanced Language RepresentatioN with Informative Entities, and it is a natural language processing (NLP) deep-learning model that can understand and generate natural language.

Trained on large data sets

Ernie 3.5 is based on Baidu’s foundational AI model, which is trained on huge amounts of data from various domains, such as news, social media, encyclopedias, books, and more. Ernie 3.5 can handle various NLP tasks, such as question answering, dialogue generation, text summarization, sentiment analysis, and more.

According to a test by the China Science Daily journal, Ernie 3.5 surpassed ChatGPT and GPT 4 in general abilities and outperformed the more advanced GPT 4 on several Chinese-language capabilities. 

ERNIE version 3.5 boosted its training and efficiency, making it faster and cheaper to upgrade to future versions. Baidu hopes that ERNIE Bot will become the next must-have app in China’s internet market, attracting users because of its natural and engaging conversations.

Intergration

Baidu has been integrating ERNIE Bot across multiple business applications, ranging from cloud computing to smart speakers. 

Chat Bot
AI Chatbot

ERNIE Bot is one of the examples of how Baidu is investing in AI technology and competing with other tech giants in the US and China. Baidu’s founder Robin Li, reportedly said that ‘foundation models are an engine driving global economic growth and represent a major strategic opportunity that cannot be missed‘.

The major BIG players, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft & META all have their own versions of AI. Hopefully it will be used ‘intelligently’.