Observe. Think. Chat. Do. Trade. Repeat…
I asked the ChatGPT drawing tool Dall-E, to help me come up with a suitable birthday image to celebrate 25 years of Google.
My request was, ‘draw a watercolour image of a birthday cake with Google written on it‘. This was refused as the word ‘Google’ was an infringement of copyright law. So, I then asked, ‘draw a watercolour image of a birthday cake with BIG tech written on it…’
Now, now, ChatGPT! – I know you are competitors but…
With second-quarter earnings season now largely behind the U.S. market, stock investors have been focusing on the latest economic data and for the most part been reacting positively to bad economic news, or any data that may point to an economic slowdown.
It’s been almost nine months since the trend emerged, as softening economic data and lower inflation may mean the Federal Reserve can stop raising interest rates.
Traders are reportedly pricing in an over 90% chance that the Fed will hold its policy interest rate unchanged at its September 2023 meeting, and a roughly 35% likelihood that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates by 0.25% in November 2023.
The Fed’s monetary policy has lost some of its potency and interest rates may need to rise as a result, economists say.
U.S. stocks closed higher ahead of the Labour Day holiday weekend, after data released indicated a cooling labour market, though there was speculation that summertime jobs data may have been a factor. The U.S. created 187,000 new jobs in August, while the unemployment rate jumped to 3.8% from 3.5%.
The data supports the narrative of a gradual slowdown in the U.S. labour market, but there are no dramatic signs that the economy is weakening significantly economists say. The economic data has not been bad. It is just softening.
However, if investors see a significant decline in the housing and U.S. labour markets, that could change the narrative and break the cycle in which ‘bad economic news is good news’ for stocks, economic data have to be much worse than now, indicating more damage from high interest rates and higher inflation.
The trend may also reverse if there is a meaningful downgrade of corporate earnings ‘expectations’ and then this translates into weakened profitability.
Investors should also be alert for the possibility that inflation may accelerate again. Data showed that the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.2% in July, but the yearly inflation rate crept up to 3.3% from 3%. Inflation has been trending down but that trend could turn again.
If investors start to treat ‘bad economic news as bad news’ for the stock market, it could put pressure on the 2023 stock-market rally, with the S&P 500 SPX already up 17.6% since the start of the year and the Nasdaq Composite COMP up 34%.
General concensus is that the bull run ain’t over just yet.
Just keep an eye on the data…
Henry David Thoreau 1817 –1862
He was an American naturalist, essayist, poet, and philosopher and leading transcendentalist.
Transcendentalism is a philosophical, spiritual, and literary movement that developed in the late 1820s and 1830s in the New England region of the United States.
A core belief is in the inherent goodness of people and nature, and while society and its institutions have corrupted the purity of the individual, people are at their best when truly ‘self-reliant’ and independent.
The creator of Photoshop and InDesign launched a generative AI tool called ‘firefly’, which has recently gained traction. It is quite possible that Adobe has one of the best AI generative tools available and it’s worth checking it out as a stock to *invest in.
Adobe Firefly is a generative AI-powered content creation tool from Adobe that allows you to experiment, imagine, and create an infinite range of images with simple ‘text’ prompts.
You can use Firefly to generate images from a detailed text description, apply styles or textures to words and phrases, use a brush to remove objects or paint in new ones, generate color variations of your vector artwork, and more.
Morgan Stanley thinks Adobe can benefit from artificial intelligence-powered products even more.The bank upgraded Adobe to overweight from equal weight.
Bank of America has also upgraded Adobe to buy with a revised target price of $63000 per share.
Definitely one to watch!
*Please do your own careful research – this is not a recommendation but simply an observation. Remember RESEARCH! RESEARCH! RESEARCH!
David Ferrucci, a prominent artificial intelligence researcher who led the team that created IBM Watson, has reportedly raised nearly $60 million for his AI company called Elemental Cognition.
Headquartered in New York, Elemental says on its website that the company seeks to develop AI that ‘thinks before it talks‘. It offers two enterprise products, Cogent and Cora, which are essentially chatbots designed for different scenarios. They can be used in financial services, interactive travel planning and for automating research discovery in life sciences.
IBM Watson is used in various areas of AI, such as natural language processing, machine learning, computer vision, speech recognition, and knowledge representation. IBM Watson is a cognitive computing system that can process natural language, analyze large amounts of data, and learn from its interactions with humans and machines.
IBM Watson is a question-answering computer system capable of answering questions posed in natural language, developed in IBM’s DeepQA project by a research team led by principal David Ferrucci. Watson was named after IBM’s founder and first CEO, industrialist Thomas J. Watson.
Watson Assistant: A chatbot platform that allows businesses to create conversational agents that can interact with customers and employees through text or voice. Watson Assistant can understand natural language, provide personalized responses, and integrate with other services and data sources.
Watson Discovery: A data analysis tool that can extract insights from structured and unstructured data, such as documents, web pages, social media posts, and images. Watson Discovery can perform natural language understanding, sentiment analysis, entity extraction, and document classification.
Watson Studio: A cloud-based platform that enables data scientists and developers to build, train, and deploy AI and machine learning models. Watson Studio supports various frameworks and languages, such as Python, TensorFlow, PyTorch and R. Watson Studio also provides tools for data visualization, collaboration, and automation.
Watson Visual Recognition: A computer vision service that can analyze images and videos for content, objects, faces, scenes, and emotions.
The IBM Watson computer consists of a cluster of ninety IBM Power 750 servers, each of which uses a 3.5 GHz POWER7 eight-core processor, with four threads per core. The system has 2,880 POWER7 processor threads and 16 terabytes of RAM. It can process 500 gigabytes (the equivalent of a million books) per second.
The IBM Watson computer has an avatar that is inspired by the IBM ‘Smarter Planet’ logo. The avatar is a globe with a grid pattern and four glowing stripes that represent the four main aspects of Watson: natural language processing, hypothesis generation and evaluation, dynamic adaptation, and evidence-based learning. The avatar also changes color and brightness depending on Watson’s mood and confidence level.
IBM was founded in 1911 in Endicott, New York, as the Computing-Tabulating-Recording Company (CTR) by Charles Ranlett Flint. The company changed its name to International Business Machines (IBM) in 1924 under the leadership of Thomas J. Watson, Sr. IBM is one of the oldest and most influential technology companies in the world, with a history of innovation and research in various fields of computing.
The International Business Machines Corporation (IBM), nicknamed ‘Big Blue’, is an American multinational technology corporation headquartered in New York and is present in over 175 countries. It specializes in computer hardware, middleware, and software, and provides hosting and consulting services in areas ranging from mainframe computers to nanotechnology. IBM is the largest industrial research organization in the world.
IBM holds the record for most annual U.S. patents generated by a business for 29 consecutive years from 1993 to 2021?
Big Blue quietly works on…
Google was founded 25 years ago today (4th September 2023) – by Larry Page and Sergey Brin, two Stanford University students who wanted to organise the web in a better way. They named their project after the mathematical term ‘googol’, which means 1 followed by 100 zeros.
Since then, Google has grown into a global tech’ giant that offers not only search, but also email, maps, cloud computing, artificial intelligence (AI), and many other products and services.
Google has also acquired several companies, such as YouTube, Android, and Waze.
Google remains one of the most influential and innovative companies in the world. It has changed the way we access information, communicate, entertain ourselves, and solve problems. It has also inspired many people to pursue their dreams and passions.
As Google CEO Sundar Pichai wrote in his public memo on Google at 25: ‘We started with a simple mission: to organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful. That mission still guides us today. But we’ve also learned that our responsibility goes beyond that. We have a duty to create products that improve the lives of billions of people — not just today or tomorrow but for generations to come’.
Go google!
Ha Jiang signed a record deal with Whet Records, Warner Music Group’s pan-Asian dance label in China, in 2021. Ha Jiang is the first virtual idol to conduct a record deal with a major label. The virtual idol uses AI technology to create music and has become an online sensation in Asia.
Ha Jiang is a virtual artist who uses artificial intelligence to create music. She is the first virtual idol to sign a record deal with a major label, Whet Records, which is Warner Music Group’s pan-Asian dance label in China. My understanding is that the music was composed by humans, so not entirely AI generated then.
She already has more than 100,000 followers in China and is known for her sense of style and fashion. She is also a social influencer who has been hired by the city of Shanghai to promote safe driving. Ha Jiang is not a real person, but a computer-generated avatar who only exists online. She is part of a growing phenomenon of virtual idols in Asia, especially among Gen-Z fans.
Endel, is a sound startup company that uses artificial intelligence to create personalized audio tracks. Endel was the first to sign a record deal with Warner Music Group in 2019 to release 20 albums of ambient music.
The digital pound is a proposed new form of money that would be issued by the Bank of England and backed by the government. It would be similar to a digital banknote, enabling you to use it in-store or online to make payments.
It would not be intended to replace cash, but complement it. The digital pound is also known as digital sterling or Britcoin.
The Bank of England and HM Treasury are looking at the idea of a digital pound because they think it might offer a new way to pay, help businesses, build trust in money, and better protect the UK’s financial system. They have published a Consultation Paper, which explores the need for the digital pound and proposes a set of design choices for it. They are also engaging with businesses and communities to get their views on the digital pound.
The digital pound is not a cryptocurrency or cryptoasset. Unlike cryptocurrencies, which have volatile values, the digital pound would be issued by the Bank of England and have a stable value, just like banknotes.
£10 in digital pounds would always have the same value as a £10 banknote.
Days after India’s successful moon mission, the country is now setting its sights on the sun.
According to the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), the Aditya-L1 spacecraft will be launched from the Sriharikota Spaceport on 2nd September 2023 in a bid to study the sun and its effect on space weather.
Aditya, which refers to the sun in Hindi, is to be placed in a halo orbit around the Lagrangian point 1 of the Sun-Earth system, where the sun can be observed without any obstructions, an ISRO report stated.
Lagrange points are positions in space where gravitational forces of two large masses produce ‘enhanced regions of attraction and repulsion’, according to NASA. The resulting force can be used to remain in position and reduce fuel consumption – and can be likened to ‘parking places’ for spacecraft.
The launch will mark India’s first space-based observatory to study the sun, and would offer a ‘major advantage of continuously viewing the sun without any occultation or eclipses’, the ISRO report stated.
The mission would also allow for the study of solar wind, which could potentially cause disturbances on Earth, such as disrupting communications, navigation systems and weather patterns.
India’s government had granted a $46 million budget for the mission back in 2019.
India recently became only the fourth country to land on the moon, doing so with the relatively low budget of $75 million. This was a massive achievement and one India celebrated with relish.
While a first attempt for India, other countries have successfully placed orbiters to study the sun. NASA’s Parker Solar Probe in 2021 which was sent to the sun’s corona to sample particles and magnetic fields, as well as the European Space Agency’s Solar Orbiter which was launched the year before.
See India’s moon mission article here
Much of the UK will have no train services on Friday 1st Septemebr 2023 as the latest major strike action takes place.
Members of Aslef, the train drivers’ union, who work at more than a dozen train companies, have walked out and have refused to work.
Up to 20,000 RMT union members at 14 operators will also strike on Saturday in a long-running dispute
Meanwhile, a consultation closing most ticket offices in England ends.
Unions and disability groups have also taken action against other proposed working practices in the industry, such as ticket office closures.
Currently, nearly 300 stations in England run by train companies with Department for Transport contracts have a full-time staffed ticket office – 708 are staffed part-time. Under the proposals, most would close.
The UK train strikes are part of an ongoing dispute between the rail unions and the train operators over pay and conditions.
The rail unions are demanding a pay rise that reflects the rising cost of living, as well as job security and improved working conditions. The train operators say they need to make changes to the ways of working in order to save money and improve efficiency, especially after the pandemic hit their finances hard.
The Rail Delivery Group, which represents the train operators, has offered a 5% pay rise for 2022, but the unions have rejected it as insufficient and conditional on reforms they oppose.
The train strikes have caused significant disruption and frustration for millions of passengers, especially during the peak summer holiday season. The government has urged both sides to resume talks and find a resolution
Nationwide said the drop represented a fall of £14,600 on a typical home in the UK since house prices peaked in August 2022. It also said higher borrowing costs for buyers had led to a slowdown in activity in the housing market. Mortgage approvals are also about 20% below pre-Covid levels.
Since December 2021, the Bank of England (BoE) has raised interest rates 14 times in row in a bid to clamp down on rising inflation in the UK. The bank’s base rate now stands at 5.25%. This has led to lenders raising their mortgage rates, putting increased pressure on homebuyers.
The average two-year fixed mortgage rate on Friday was 6.7%, while the average five-year fix was 6.19%.
Average house prices in the UK peaked at £273,751 in August 2022 but fell to £259,153 last month.
They are all big commercial markets but in the coming decades a new product is coming and it will be so desirable that it will dwarf these giants – it will be… the ‘robot’.
Robots will be able to understand what we want, comprehend the way the world works and looks and have the skills to execute our commands in a safe and controlled manner – at home and in the workplace.
The labour market is the biggest market that has ever existed in the history of business – it’s the market where we want things ‘done’ – where we do things – and it’s forever evolving. It carries massive stock market and investing potential right now and for the future.
Take Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Apple and Tesla as prime examples of companies pioneering technological advancements for instance – we can already enjoy and invest in these – and there’s much more to come.
In the UK, Dyson is investing in AI and robotics aimed at household chores.
One of the highest profile companies in the market is Tesla, Elon Musk’s electric car company. It is working on the Optimus humanoid robot, which Mr Musk intimates could be on sale to the public in a few years’ time.
Massive tecnological advancement in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics suggest the development of humanoid robots is accelerating… and fast. It’s a race to the become the first to succeed in the biggest practical labour market ever… and it carries huge potential for everyone, including you and me.
Twenty years at the pace the technology is developing now is is an eternity – every week, month and year there are new developments in the AI world that have introduced fundamental changes and enhancements to our world.
Mainstream interest in AI exploded late 2022 when a powerful version of ChatGPT was made public. Its ability to generate almost unlimited useful text and images has spawned rivals and a wave of investment in AI technology.
But developing the AI that would allow a robot to complete useful tasks is a different and much more difficult task. Tesla could be the company best placed to be one of the first to achieve this goal – given its advancements in ‘self driving’ technology. But, unlike ChatGPT and its rivals, humanoid robots have to navigate the physical world and need to understand how objects in that world relate to each other.
Tasks that seem easy to humans are major feats for humanoid robots. This is a problem that engages a lot of different complex issues in an AI driven robotics system. Picking up a cup and having a drink is a major undergoing for a robot.
The potential market for robots in the future depends on various factors, such as the level of technological innovation, the demand from different industries and sectors, the regulatory and ethical frameworks, and the social and economic impacts of robot adoption. But if recent developments are anything to go by – it promises to be big!
Based on the some indicative web search results, the current market size for robots is estimated to be around $55 billion to $114 billion in 2023, depending on the type and scope of robots included. The projected market size for robots in 2028 or 2029 ranges from $165 billion to $260 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.4% to 17.6%.
The professional services robots, which include medical, agricultural, and personal assistance robots, are expected to dominate the market and account for more than half of the total sales by 2030. The industrial and logistics robots, which include conventional, collaborative, and mobile robots, are also expected to grow steadily and increase their productivity and efficiency in various manufacturing and transportation applications.
However, these projections are based on assumptions – but one thing is for sure the robots are coming and the market will be massive!
I for one will be keeping a watchful eye on where to invest my hard earned cash to take advantage of this potentially high growth market in the coming years (and now).
Nvidia stock anyone?
Baidu’s Ernie bot is a ChatGPT-like chatbot that can generate natural and fluent text based on user input. It is one of the latest artificial intelligence applications from Baidu, a Chinese tech giant that specializes in search engine and AI development.
Ernie bot was released to the public on 31st August 2023, after getting approval from the Chinese regulators under the new AI regulations and quickly became the most popular app on Apple’s app store in China, surpassing other local generative AI models.
Ernie bot can be accessed through an app or a website, and users can chat with it on various topics, such as news, entertainment, sports, and education. Ernie bot is also able to learn from human feedback and improve its foundation models.
The price of bitcoin surged Tuesday 29th August 2023 after the U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was wrong to deny crypto investment giant Grayscale permission to convert its popular bitcoin trust into an ETF.
Bitcoin jumped around 7% following the ruling to $27,852. The move lifted other cryptocurrencies as well as crypto equities higher.
Grayscale’s lawsuit against the SEC has been closely watched by investors and other industry participants as a key catalyst that would shake up a market governed by low volatility and liquidity.
Earlier this month, bitcoin trading volatility fell to its lowest level in more than four years as investors had been waiting on the sidelines for more regulatory clarity on crypto activity .
Several bitcoin futures ETFs have already been approved in the U.S.
‘The denial of Grayscale’s proposal was arbitrary and capricious … The Commission failed to adequately explain why it approved the listing of two bitcoin futures ETPs but not Grayscale’s proposed bitcoin Exchange Trade Product (ETP),‘the court said in the ruling. ‘In the absence of a coherent explanation, this unlike regulatory treatment of like products is unlawful. We therefore grant Grayscale’s petition for review and vacate the Commission’s order‘.
Tuesday’s ruling may increase the chances that the SEC will approve other bitcoin ETF applications, including that of BlackRock, whose filing in late June 2023 drove one of bitcoin’s big rallies this year, as well as Fidelity, Invesco and many others.
A U.S. bitcoin ETF would provide a way to get exposure to bitcoin without having to hold it, which would invite retail and institutional investors as well as wealth managers into the market.
A spokesperson for the SEC said it’s ‘reviewing the court’s decision to determine next steps‘.
‘Today’s decision reaffirms that a bitcoin ETF in the U.S. is a matter of when, not if’, said the global head of asset management at Galaxy, which filed with Invesco for its bitcoin ETF. ‘In order for digital assets to continue to flourish, they must be accessible to all investors. We believe that the ETF structure can enable greater access to and transparency across cryptocurrency investing, and truly help further democratize the asset class‘.
The ruling also comes as a relief to many crypto market traders who have been frustrated by the SEC, particularly under Chair Gary Gensler, and its insistence on regulating by enforcement.
The crypto industry has long sought out clarity in rules businesses can apply to establish and build long-lasting, compliant companies. The U.S. regulatory crackdown on crypto in 2023 – which includes SEC enforcements and a lawsuit against the biggest U.S. crypto exchange Coinbase and also its case against XRP Ripple has been a dark cloud over the market.
Grayscale initiated its lawsuit against the SEC in June 2022 after the agency rejected its application to turn its bitcoin trust, better known by its ticker GBTC, into an ETF. The company decided to pursue the ETF, which would be backed by bitcoin rather than bitcoin derivatives, after the SEC approved ProShares’ futures-based bitcoin ETF in October 2021.
The ruling faced multiple delays but the SEC ultimately rejected the application last summer, citing failure by Grayscale to answer questions related to concerns about market manipulation and investor protections.
Nvidia shares rose 4.2% Tuesday 29th August 2023 to close at a record high, after the company announced a partnership with Google that could expand distribution of its artificial intelligence technology (AI).
The stock’s bountiful run continued, now up 234% in 2023, making it by far the best performer in the S&P 500. Facebook parent Meta is second in the index, up 148% so far this year.
The record close comes less than a week after the company said quarterly revenue doubled from a year earlier and gave a forecast indicating that sales this period could rise 170% on an annual basis. The day after the better-than-expected earnings report, the stock climbed to a record intraday high of $502.66 before declining later in the afternoon.
Nvidia’s business is booming because its graphics processing (GPU’s) are being gobbled up by cloud companies, government agencies and startups to train and deploy generative AI models like the technology deployed in OpenAI’s ChatGPT as fasta as Nvidia can make them.
On Tuesday 29th August 2023, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang appeared at a Google conference to announce an AI agreement between the two companies.
Through the partnership, Google’s cloud customers will have greater access to technology powered by Nvidia’s powerful H100 GPUs.
‘Our expanded collaboration with Google Cloud will help developers accelerate their work with infrastructure, software and services that supercharge energy efficiency and reduce costs’, the Nvidia CEO reportedly said in a blog post.
Nvidia’s GPUs are also available on competing cloud platforms from Amazon and Microsoft.
At 4.33%, the 10-year Treasury yield in the U.S. is at its highest in 16 years. That represents a risk-free, long-duration asset with relatively high returns and this is challenging the stock market.
Why should traders invest in stocks that may not return as much, or just slightly more and take unecessary risks, when there is an asset class that guarantees around 4% return or slighlty more?
Cash is now yielding 5% in the U.S., short term bonds are yielding 5% plus, so equities for the first time in a long time, have actually got some competition.
Typically stocks if they do well, are likely to return more than a risk-free asset, precisely because it isn’t certain stocks will rise. That’s called the equity risk premium, a return that’s supposed to compensate stock investors for the chance that they might lose money. But, as the premium is below 1% now. Historically, it’s been between 2% and 4% – meaning stocks are looking much less attractive than Treasuries.
Another potential issue that could crop up with high Treasury yields is that it could make the Federal Reserve’s job tougher. During the recent Jackson Hole gathering, the Fed head has indicated that more interest rate hikes are still high possibility.
But don’t panic just yet… this is likely a pullback phase of a bull market analysts suggest. That is, it’s still too early to be bearish on stocks.
Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni is reported to have said that the market is ‘going to hang in there’ and ‘a year-end rally will bring the S&P 500 back to something like 4,600‘.
That implied an increase of almost 5% in stocks – while not certain – would give Treasuries a run for their money again.
William Penn was an English writer, religious thinker and philosopher, and influential Quaker who founded the Province of Pennsylvania during the British colonial era.
Penn was an advocate of democracy and religious freedom.
Holidaymakers are stuck all over the UK and abroad, with the National Air Traffic Services (NATS) saying it had applied restrictions to traffic flow. Passengers have been advised to check if their flight has been affected on one of the biggest UK travel days of the year.
NATS reportedly apologised for the fault just after midday on bank holiday Monday 28th August 2023, before it announced at 15:15 BST that it had identified and remedied the issue that was affecting its ‘ability to automatically process flight plans’. We don’t yet know what caused the failure. NATS added that engineers would be monitoring the system’s performance as it returns to normal.
NATS had earlier stressed that ‘UK airspace was not closed, we have had to apply air traffic flow restrictions which ensures we can maintain safety’.
Several airports across the UK, and most airlines have all warned passengers of delays or cancellations to flights.
How fragile are the infrastructures systems in the UK?
This is a controversial decision that has been opposed by China, South Korea, and some Pacific island nations. They fear that the water release will harm the marine environment and human health, and affect seafood exports.
Japan says that the water release is safe and necessary for the decommissioning of the plant, which was damaged by a massive earthquake and tsunami in 2011. The water has been treated to remove most of the radioactive substances, except for tritium and carbon-14, which are considered to have low risks. The water will also be diluted to meet the international standards for drinking water before being discharged.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has endorsed Japan’s plan and said that the water release will have a negligible impact on people and the environment. The IAEA will also monitor the water release and verify Japan’s compliance with the safety standards.
The water release is expected to take about 30 years to complete, and will involve pumping out about 1.34 million tonnes of water from more than 1,000 tanks at the Fukushima site.
The amount the UK owes exceeds GDP for first time since 1961. Inflation-linked bonds mean the UK is paying more than its peers.
From the financial crisis to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UK has borrowed and spent its way out of every jam. The bill for that is becoming a massive concern for the UK treasury and for the economy.
The UK’s public debt has soared by more than 40% to almost £2.6 trillion ($3.3 trillion) since the pandemic struck, leaving the country owing more than its entire annual economic output for the first time since 1961. A heavy reliance on index-linked bonds, at a time of high inflation, also means Britain will pay more to service the debt.
The high level of debt poses a risk to the UK’s credit rating, which could affect its borrowing costs and fiscal credibility. The three main credit-rating firms are due to update their assessments of the UK over the next four months in 2023, and some analysts are concerned that the UK could face a downgrade, especially after the U.S. lost its AAA status from Fitch.
A downgrade could undermine Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s effort to rebuild Britain’s fiscal reputation after his predecessor, Liz Truss, triggered a bond-market crash in 2022 by promising huge unfunded tax cuts.
The pressure on the UK’s finances is also being compounded by a selloff in bonds amid aggressive rate hikes by the Bank of England to quell inflation. The yield on the 10-year benchmark this week rose above 4.70% to its highest since 2008.
The UK bond market is among the developed world’s worst performers this year. The rise in yields could increase the cost of servicing the debt, which is already high due to the UK’s heavy reliance on index-linked bonds that adjust with inflation.
The UK’s economic growth is forecast to remain flat through next year, which limits the scope for reducing the debt through higher revenues or lower spending. The National Health Service is stretched to breaking point and the tax burden is already at a 70-year high. The ONS warned that debt could balloon to more than three times GDP over the next half century without action.
According to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2023 (April to June), following a revised growth of 0.1% in the first quarter of 2023 (January to March). This means that the UK’s GDP growth rate for the whole year of 2023 is estimated to be 0.3%, which is lower than the previous forecast of 0.5%.
ONS data to March 2023
The main factors that contributed to the weak GDP growth in the second quarter were the slowdown in consumer spending, the decline in business investment, and the negative impact of the additional bank holiday in May due to the King’s Coronation. The services sector, which accounts for about 80% of the UK’s economy, grew by only 0.1% in the second quarter, while the production sector grew by 0.7%, and the construction sector fell by 0.2%.
The outlook for the UK’s economy remains uncertain, as it faces several challenges such as high inflation, rising interest rates, a slowing global economy, and the ongoing effects of Brexit and the effects of the war in Ukraine.
ONS data for EU countries
Some economists have warned that the UK faces a ‘very real risk’ of recession due to higher interest rates, which could dampen consumer and business confidence and increase the cost of servicing the debt.
The OECD has projected that the UK’s GDP growth will improve moderately to 1.0% in 2024, but still remain below its pre-pandemic level.
The quote is often used to inspire people to take action and avoid procrastination, as it implies that delaying something may result in missing the opportunity or losing the motivation to do it.
The quote also suggests that the present moment is the best time to pursue your goals and dreams, rather than wait for a more convenient time.
The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 7.23% in the week ending 25th August 2023, up from 7.09% the week before, according to latest bank reports from U.S. This is the highest level since June 2001, when it was 7.24%.
The rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage increased to 7.31% in the week ended 18th August 2023, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data. This is the highest level since late 2000.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.16% with 0.68 points as of August 16, according to U.S. News. This is up from 7.09% with 0.7 points the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage increased to 7.6%.
The rise in mortgage rates is driven by indications of ongoing economic strength and inflation pressures, which have also pushed up Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate expectations.
Higher mortgage rates make home buying more expensive and reduce the affordability of homeownership. They also discourage existing homeowners from selling or refinancing their homes, which contributes to the low inventory of available homes for sale.
As a result, home sales have declined and home prices have soared in many markets. Will interest rates touch 8%?
The former boss of NatWest is set to receive a £2.4m pay package this year, despite having quit in disgrace over her handling of the closure of Nigel Farage’s bank account.
A contractual obligation no doubt?
