The UK FTSE 100 stock index has reached a new record closing price on Monday 22nd April 2024
The new all-time high was likely propelled by a weakening pound and reduced tensions in the Middle East. The FTSE 100 has been the laggard for many months.
The index concluded Monday at 8023 points, setting a new record and eclipsing its previous peak of 8012 from February of the preceding year.
At the close, it had risen by 1.62%, with retailers such as, Tesco, Sainsbury’s, M&S and Ocado being among the top gainers of the day.
The shares have gained from the depreciating pound since the London Stock Exchange index includes numerous companies with significant international operations.
A depreciated pound lowers the cost of exported goods for overseas buyers and boosts the value of international business transactions.
Update
On Tuesday morning 23rd April 2024 the FTSE 100 climbed to a new intraday high of: 8080
FTSE 100 5 day chart showing the intraday high of Tuesday morning 23rd April 2024
Meta’s complimentary artificial intelligence (AI) assistant, known as Meta AI, is being introduced across its social media platforms, including WhatsApp, Instagram, Facebook, and Messenger.
The assistant is reportedly designed to respond to queries, craft animations, and produce ‘high-quality’ images, according to Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg in a recent video posting.
Zuckerberg also noted that the company has integrated ‘real-time knowledge’ from Google and Microsoft’s Bing to enhance the assistant’s responses.
The development of MetaAI is based on the company’s most advanced large language model, Meta Llama 3, which was unveiled on the same day – Thursday 18th April 2024.
Norway’s massive sovereign wealth fund reported a first-quarter profit of 1.21 trillion kroner ($109.9 billion) – bolstered by strong returns from its technology stock investments it was announced on Thursday 18th April 2024.
Established in the 1990s, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the largest in the world, invests the surplus revenue from the nation’s oil and gas sector. The fund has invested in over 8,800 companies across more than 70 countries to date.
Net revenue: 592.64 billion New Taiwan dollars ($18.87 billion), vs. NT$582.94 billion
Net income: NT$225.49 billion, vs. NT$213.59 billion
TSMC announced that its net revenue has increased by 16.5% from the previous year to NT$592.64 billion, and its net income has risen by 8.9% to NT$225.49 billion. The company has forecasted its revenue for the first quarter to be in the range of $18 billion to $18.8 billion.
As the world’s largest producer of advanced processors, TSMC serves high-profile clients including Nvidia and Apple.
The company intends to reduce its global workforce by over 10%, amounting to roughly 14,000 employees
As of December, Tesla had a total of 140,473 employees worldwide.
This decision is believed to be a response to the obstacles Tesla is encountering with slowing growth and operational effectiveness and cheaper competition.
In an internal memo, billionaire owner Elon Musk addressed the layoffs, acknowledging that it was a difficult decision but necessary for the company’s future. He emphasized the need to streamline operations and prepare for the next phase of growth.
The layoffs have already begun and also include some key executives.
Why?
Analysts offer diverse interpretations of the layoffs. Some perceive them as indicative of cost pressures stemming from Tesla’s investments in new models and artificial intelligence (AI).
The company’s delay in updating its aging vehicle lineup, coupled with high interest rates, has weakened consumer demand. Moreover, the influx of affordable electric vehicles, especially from China, such as BYD, has intensified the competition.
Efficiency drive?
While the layoffs indicate challenges, they also highlight Tesla’s dedication to adaptability and efficiency. As the electric vehicle (EV) industry progresses, Tesla strives to stay lean, innovative, and strategically positioned for ongoing growth. The company is scheduled to announce its quarterly earnings later this month, which analysts will scrutinize in the context of the recent workforce reductions.
In summary, Tesla’s layoffs are indicative of the intricate dynamics within the automotive sector, where innovation, cost control, and market forces converge.
The company’s capacity to steer through these complexities will determine its future prosperity.
Nvidia, manufacturer of one of the most advanced graphics processing units (GPUs), has significantly benefited from the artificial intelligence (AI) surge due to the high demand for its microchips.
The company’s shares have fallen 10% from their recent all-time high, which was over $950. On Tuesday, 9th April 2024, the stock closed at $853.54, but it saw a slight recovery on Wednesday 10th April 2024, to $870.39.
Nvidia Corporation share price off recent all time high
Nvidia Corporation share price off recent all time high
On Tuesday, 9th April 2024, Intel, a competitor in the chipmaking industry, introduced a new AI chip named Gaudi 3. This chip is designed to drive large language models and stands as a contender against Nvidia’s most sophisticated chips.
U.S. inflation data coming in higher than expected along with a climb in treasuries has led to doubts of a Fed rate cut anytime soon.
These concerns combined together, pushed Nvidia and some other tech stocks lower.
The recent surge of interest in artificial intelligence (AI) has ignited a significant rally in technology stocks.
Firms engaged in AI development, such as semiconductor producers crucial to AI technology and cloud service providers offering the necessary computing infrastructure, have experienced significant returns.
The stock market is abuzz with excitement over artificial intelligence (AI). With technology stocks on the rise, some investors are questioning whether this signifies an AI bubble that could eventually pop.
The AI Rally Early Winners
In recent months, a select group of large U.S. companies has spearheaded advancements. These pioneers include semiconductor manufacturers critical for AI technology and cloud service providers equipped to commercialise it. The financial returns have been remarkable.
Not Your Typical Bubble
Despite the rally, experts argue that we’re not in a traditional bubble.
Market Concentration: The market rally has shown a high level of concentration. A mere 15 companies have contributed to more than 90% of the returns in the S&P 500 Index from January to June. Given that these frontrunners are predominantly large corporations, the equity market has experienced an exceptional concentration of returns.
Valuations and Balance Sheets: Contrary to previous bubbles, such as the internet bubble of 2000, the valuations of today’s leading technology stocks are not overly inflated. These firms have strong balance sheets and deliver significant returns on investment. It’s probable that we are still in the initial phases of a new technological cycle, which may result in continued superior performance.
U.S. vs European Tech: Valuations in the U.S. technology sector have garnered an unusual premium compared to European tech companies. This highlights the significance of the AI narrative, considering that the majority of leading AI companies are based in the U.S.
Future Growth Assumptions: Investors seem to expect much higher future growth for these tech giants, despite rising rates.
The AI Bubble Debate
Although tech stock valuations are high compared to historical standards, this doesn’t automatically indicate a bubble. The present price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the U.S. tech sector is indeed high, but context is key. The top seven US companies at the forefront of the generative AI industry have an average P/E ratio of 25.
Conclusion
The AI market has not reached bubble status as of now, but careful monitoring is essential. Staying vigilant about valuations, market dominance, and growth projections is important as we venture through this dynamic technological terrain, distinguishing genuine potential from mere speculation.
AI is here to stay, and this is just the beginning of a new ever powerful revolution.
Samsung Electronics anticipates its profits for the first quarter of 2024 to surge more than tenfold compared to the previous year.
This projection is due to the recovery in chip prices following a post-pandemic decline and a surge in demand for artificial intelligence (AI) related products.
As the world’s leading manufacturer of memory microchips, smartphones, and televisions, the South Korea-based Samsung reportedly plans to publish a comprehensive financial report on 30th April 2024.
Projected profit
The tech giant has projected that its operating profit for the January-March 2024 quarter soared to 6.6 trillion won ($4.9bn; £3.9bn), marking a 931% increase from the same period in 2023, surpassing analysts’ forecasts of approximately 5.7 trillion won.
Rebound in microchip prices
A rebound in global semiconductor prices, following a significant downturn the previous year, is expected to bolster its earnings. Over the past year, global memory microchip prices have reportedly increased by about 20%. The semiconductor division of Samsung typically generates the most revenue for the company.
The demand for semiconductors is projected to stay robust throughout the year, fueled by the expansion in AI technologies. Furthermore, the earthquake that struck Taiwan on 3rd April 2024 could potentially constrict the worldwide chip supply, possibly enabling Samsung to further elevate its prices.
Taiwan a key player
Taiwan houses several key chipmakers, including TSMC, which supplies Apple and Nvidia. Despite TSMC reporting minimal impact on its production from the earthquake, it did experience some operational disruptions.
Additionally, Samsung is poised to benefit from the sales of its newly launched flagship Galaxy S24 smartphones, introduced in January.
Nvidia have announced a new generation of artificial intelligence chips and software for running AI models. It’s called: The Blackwell B200 GPU
Blackwell B200 GPU
The Blackwell B200 is the successor to Nvidia’s Hopper H100 and H200 GPUs.
It represents a massive generational leap in computational power.
AI Performance: The B200 GPU delivers 4 times the AI training performance and 30 times the inference performance compared to its predecessor.
Transistor Count: It packs an impressive 208 billion transistors, more than doubling the transistor count of the existing H100.
Memory: The B200 features 192GB of HBM3e memory with an impressive bandwidth of 8 TB/s.
Architecture: The Blackwell architecture takes over from H100/H200.
*Dual-Die Configuration: The B200 is not a single GPU in the traditional sense. Instead, it consists of two tightly coupled die, functioning as one unified CUDA GPU. These chips are linked via a 10 TB/s NV-HBI connection to ensure coherent operation.
*Dual-die packaging technology is used to pack two integrated circuit chips in one single package module. It doubles functionality levels.
Process Node: The B200 utilizes TSMC’s 4NP process node, a refined version of the 4N process used by Hopper H100 and Ada Lovelace architecture GPUs.
The Blackwell B200 is designed for data centres and AI workloads but will likely be available to expect consumer in the future, although these may differ significantly from the data centre model.
Grace Blackwell GB200 Superchip:
Nvidia’s GB200 Grace Blackwell Superchip, with two B200 graphics processors and one Arm-based central processor
This superchip pairs the Grace CPU architecture with the updated Blackwell GPU.
It’s another addition to Nvidia’s lineup, combining CPU and GPU power for advanced computing tasks.
Nvidia continues to push the boundaries of accelerated computing, and these new GPUs promise remarkable performance improvements for AI and other workloads.
Onwards and upwards for Nvidia and the advancement of AI.
UK chancellor Jeremy Hunt revealed the British ISA as part of the Spring Budget 2024.
The British ISA aims to boost demand for UK businesses and encourage investment in UK-focused assets.
Key Features
Additional Allowance
The British ISA provides a separate £5,000 annual allowance in addition to the existing £20,000 ISA allowance.
Tax Advantages
Like other ISAs, investors in the British ISA will not pay tax on capital gains or income.
Investment Focus
While it’s not yet clear whether the new ISA will be exclusively for UK shares, it is expected to support UK-focused funds and investment trusts.
Eligibility Uncertainty
The inclusion of UK gilts or UK corporate bonds remains uncertain.
Consultation Period
The consultation period for the British ISA runs until June 6, 2024.
Potential Impact – Reviving UK Stock Market
The British ISA aims to revive interest in the UK stock market, which has faced challenges since the Brexit vote in 2016.
Supporting UK Companies
By providing tax-free savings opportunities, the ISA encourages investment in UK businesses.
Fund Industry Support
Fund management firms, including Premier Miton, lobbied for the British ISA’s creation.
Historical Context
The British ISA draws parallels with its predecessor, the personal equity plan (PEP), which focused on UK shares and funds.
ISAs replaced PEPs in 1999.
Conclusion
In summary, the British ISA introduces an additional allowance for UK-focused investments, supporting savers and UK companies alike. Its impact on the stock market and investor sentiment remains to be seen, but it represents a step toward bolstering the UK’s economic landscape
By ensuring that companies are valued fairly, a stronger stock market will facilitate the capital raising process for companies that seek to grow and attract more listings. This will have a positive impact on the economy and employment and is ultimately in everyone’s interest.
As tech giant Nvidia soars on hype around artificial intelligence (AI), and as global stock indexes claim record highs, debate has grown about whether the stock market has entered a ‘bubble.’
An AI bubble of boom
We are reminded of the dotcom bubble where investment was rife in anything tech – so, are we now potentially facing a new tech bubble – an AI bubble of boom?
That’s generally seen as a period in which asset prices inflate rapidly, potentially beyond their core value; and risk crashing just as fast.
Other AI stocks are chasing the dream too adding to the hype. However, some are in the slow lane playing catch-up and this may suggest there is much, much more to come.
The likes of AMD, Intel, Amazon, OpenAI, Arm and a myriad of other tech companies big and small have much more AI to bring to the tech table.
Let’s use Nvidia as an example of a potential stock bubble
If we look at the valuation of Nvidia, justifiably it is actually very high, too high even – that’s the first sign of a potential problem, valuation. The second issue is investor positioning – whenever you have a market bubble, investors are very clustered or very concentrated, either in one market or in one sector as a whole.
Nvidia one year chart as of 29th February 2024. Price 791
Nvidia one year chart as of 29th February 2024. Price 791
Sectors
It doesn’t matter which markets you look at – the U.S., Europe or Asia markets – the problem is the same. We now have an historic valuation between the tech sector, the AI sub-sector of the tech sector, and the rest of the market.
Investors are very clustered in this tech sector. However, some leading commentators say of tech that this is not hype – this is real. It most probably is, for now, and with much more to come from the smaller tech and AI companies that have yet to show their true AI value. But all bubbles burst in the end.
Pop!
There is certainly plenty of room for AI to grow – it’s in its infancy – but the question is: ‘how and when will the bubble burst? Because, in my humble opinion, it most certainly will.
We may not see a dramatic market crash like 1999-2000 or 2007/2008, but an investor rotation out of areas of concentration into the broader market will likely happen.
If you look at the bubbles of 1999-2000, and then in 2007/2008, one key characteristic was investor leverage. And we had, whether it was retail investors or institutional investors, a very high level of leverage, and that was either through borrowings or it was through derivatives.
The AI tech boom has legs but there will almost inevitably be a rotation from AI to other sectors – that will then adjust the overvalued AI sector. And it could pullback quite hard.
Intuitive Machines initially reported Odysseus was standing upright. But in an update on Friday 23rd February 2024, the company reported they believe the spacecraft caught its landing gear sideways in the moon’s surface while touching down and tipped over.
Intuitive Machines’ cargo lander, Odysseus, returned its first images from the moon’s surface over the weekend.
Historic achievement
The company’s historic IM-1 mission is now operating on the moon after landing on Thursday 22nd February 2024, becoming the first privately developed spacecraft to soft land on the lunar surface.
Despite resting on its side, Odysseus is still sending back data. Intuitive Machines expects Odysseus to operate until Tuesday morning, when its solar panels will no longer be exposed to the sun.
Intuitive Machines’ stock fell 35% in trading on Monday 26th February 2024 to close down at $6.27 a share.
Artist’s impression of Intuitive Machines luna lander on the moon
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index hit a new all-time high on Monday 26th February 2024. In contrast China markets slipped after a nine-day winning streak.
The Nikkei 225 ended 0.4% higher at 39233 comfortably above its previous closing record of 39,098.68. The index breached its 1989 all-time high of 38915 on Thursday 22nd February 2024.
Nikkei 225 hit new all-time high Monday 26th February 2024 – one year chart
Nikkei 225 hit new all-time high Monday 26th February 2024
Rolls-Royce, a prominent jet engine manufacturer for commercial aircraft along with power systems for ships and submarines and other major projects posted an underlying operating profit of £1.6 billion in 2023, compared to £652 million in 2022.
Rolls-Royce was the top performer in the UK’s FTSE 100 in 2023, climbing over 200% on the back of a profit forecast upgrade and the announcement in November 2023 that profits ‘could‘ quadruple by 2027.
The S&P 500 surged to a new all-time high on Thursday 22nd February 2024
Microchip maker Nvidia reported much stronger-than-expected quarterly results, lifting tech sector and markets higher.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 gained just over 2% to close at 5087, notching its best day since January 2023. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.96% for its best day since February 2023, closing at 16041 and ever closer to its all-time high.
Nasdaq
The tech-heavy index is very close now to its all-time closing high of 16,057.44.
Dow
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 456 points to surpass 39000 for the first time ever and close at a new high of 39069.
Shares of Nvidia climbed around 16% to an all-time high after the company said total revenue rose a massive 265% from a year ago.
Nvidia, which has become one of the largest U.S. companies by market capitalization, also forecast another stellar revenue gain for the current quarter.
The excitement surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) technology appears to show few signs of abating
The technology company at the heart of the AI chip boom reported its Q4 earnings after the stock market’s close on Wednesday 21st February 2024, beating expectations for both earnings and sales. The company’s total revenue is up 265% from a year ago.
Investors are looking to Nvidia’s latest quarterly earnings report to see whether the company’s meteoric growth can last.
Nvidia one year share price as at 22nd February 2024
Nvidia one year share price as at 22nd February 2024
AI chips
Nvidia makes powerful computer chips that power popular AI tools like OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Microsoft’s Copilot. High demand for those chips has propelled the company into the exclusive trillion-dollar club.
As of market close on 21st February 2024 the company’s market cap sat at $1.667 trillion, putting it behind Alphabet’s $1.779 trillion market cap. It’s also behind Microsoft and Apple, which hold market caps of $2.988 trillion and $2.819 trillion, respectively.
Nvidia’s stock price has been on an upward trajectory so far this year. Shares have gained by nearly 40% since the beginning of 2024. On top of that, they’ve soared by over 225% in the last 12 months.
Although short-term demand for Nvidia’s AI chips has been strong, major companies such as Microsoft and Meta have indicated interest in buying them from other companies.
If you had invested $1,000 in Nvidia
If you had invested $1,000 in Nvidia five, 10 or 24 years ago, here’s how much your investment would be worth now.
$1,000 in Nvidia five years ago, your investment would have increased by an eye-watering 1,015% and be worth around $17,542 as of 20th February 2024.
If you had invested $1,000 in Nvidia 10 years ago, your investment would have soared by about 22,340% and be worth around $148,226 as of 20th February 2024.
But, if you had invested $1,000 in Nvidia in January 1999, when Nvidia first went public, your investment would have grown by around 277,708% and be worth close to $2,784,065 as of 20th February 2024.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 hit a record high of: 39098 on Thursday 22nd February 2024.
The rally was propelled by electronics, banking and consumer stocks as robust earnings and investor-friendly measures fuel a blistering rally in Japanese equities.
The Nikkei 225 jumped 2%, surpassing the previous record high of 38,915.87 reached in 1989.
Standout performance
Both the Nikkei and the broader Topix have been standout performers in Asia up more than 10% so far in 2024 after surging more than 25% in 2023. Their best annual gains in at least a decade.
Japan Inc’s solid third-quarter corporate earnings have prompted Bank of America analysts to upgrade their 2024 year-end forecasts for the Nikkei 225 to 41000 from 38500. They raised their forecasts for the Topix to 2,850 from 2,715.
The rally has also been supported by a weaker yen.
The Magnificent Seven, or MAMA ANT, is a term coined by Bank of America to describe the seven most dominant tech companies in the world
The Seven are: Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, and Alphabet. These companies have not only led the tech sector in terms of innovation, growth, and profitability, but have also become some of the most valuable entities in the world by market capitalization.
Valuation at $15 trillion
Market capitalization, or market cap, is the total value of all the shares of a company that are traded on the stock market. It reflects the market’s perception of the company’s future prospects and earnings potential.
As of January 2023, the Magnificent Seven had a combined market cap of about $15 trillion, which was more than the gross domestic product (GDP) of almost every country in the world, except for the United States, China and Japan (just).
Magnificent Seven
The Magnificent Seven have achieved such a remarkable feat by leveraging their core competencies in various fields of technology, such as artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, social media, e-commerce, gaming, electric vehicles, and online advertising. They have also diversified their revenue streams by acquiring or developing new products and services, such as Activision Blizzard, AWS, Oculus, iPhone, GeForce, SpaceX, and YouTube. They have also benefited from the increased demand for digital solutions amid the Covid-19 pandemic, which accelerated the adoption of online platforms, remote work, and entertainment.
Challenges
However, the Magnificent Seven also face some challenges and risks that could threaten their dominance and valuation. These include increasing competition from other tech companies, especially from China, such as Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, and Huawei.
They also face regulatory scrutiny and pressure from governments and consumers over issues such as antitrust, privacy, taxation, content moderation, and environmental impact. Furthermore, they may encounter technical difficulties, security breaches, or ethical dilemmas that could damage their reputation and customer trust.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Magnificent Seven are the most powerful and influential tech companies in the world, and their market cap surpasses that of almost every country in the world.
List of 10 countries by stock market capitalization
List of 10 countries by stock market capitalisation
The meteoric rise in the profits and market capitalisations of the Magnificent 7 U.S. tech giants: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla – outstrip those of all listed companies in almost every G20 country. Of the non-U.S. G20 countries, only China and Japan (and the latter, only just) have greater profits when their listed companies are combined.
They have achieved this by exploiting their competitive advantages in various domains of technology and expanding their offerings and markets. However, they also need to overcome some challenges and risks that could hamper their growth and value in the future.
A forced size reduction to stop the monopolising of market share could help tame these beasts too and open up fairer competition.
Should we worry?
Basically, yes, we should be concerned about the size and dominance of these companies.
This level of wealth and power concentrated in just a handful of companies has led some analysts to voice concerns over related risks in the U.S. and global stock markets.
Economists and stock market analysts have cautioned that the U.S. stock market is rivalling 2000 and 1929 in terms of being at its most concentrated in history.
Shares of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase soared 12% Friday 16th February 2024 after the company reported its first profit in two years.
Coinbase, the largest U.S. venue for buying and selling cryptocurrencies, said that net income totalled $273 million in Q4.
This is the first time that the company has reported positive net income since the fourth quarter of 2021.
Net revenue
Coinbase reported its net revenue was $905 million in the Q4 of 2023, up almost 50% from $605 million in the same period of the previous year.
Bitcoin ETFs
Cryptocurrencies saw a huge amount of interest from investors in the fourth quarter of 2023, following news of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approving the first Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Bitcoin ETFs enable retail investors to access the cryptocurrency as a share that’s traded on a regulated exchange without directly exposing them to the underlying asset.
The news has driven demand for cryptocurrencies due to anticipation that it could drive interest from retail investors.
Jeff Bezos filed a statement indicating his sale of nearly 12 million shares of Amazon stock worth more than $2 billion
The Amazon executive chairman notified the U.S. SEC – Securities and Exchange Commission of the sale of 11,997,698 shares of common stock on the 7th and 8th February 2024.
The collective value of the shares of Amazon, which is based in Seattle where he founded the company in a garage around thirty years ago, was about $2.04 billion.
More to come
In a separate SEC filing, Bezos listed the proposed sale of 50 million Amazon shares on or around 7th February 2024 with an estimated market value of $8.4 billion.
Taxing decision?
Jeff Bezos moved from Seattle to Miami in November 2023, shortly before he announced his plan to sell up to 50 million Amazon shares by January 2025.
Florida does not have a capital gains tax, unlike Washington state, which imposes a 7% tax on any gains of more than $250,000 from the sale of stocks and bonds. Therefore, by moving to Florida, Bezos could save up to $600 million in taxes on his stock sale – more than enough for a luxury yacht and 2 or 3 more luxury properties.
But, of course, we do not know if this was the real reason for his move.
Arm’s strong growth forecast has led investors to declare it an AI darling
Arm shares soared 29% on Monday, extending last week’s rally as investors continue to applaud the chipmaker’s better-than-expected third-quarter earnings and its position in the artificial intelligence boom.
Up 93% since 8th February 2024
Arm is now up 93% since it reported quarterly figures on 8th February 2024. There is no obvious reason for the 29% climb on Monday. The fear of missing out (FOMO) could be playing a part in the meteoric share price move.
The stock has almost tripled since Arm’s initial public offering in September 2023, closing at $148.97 and is now worth almost $153 billion, that’s a little more than $30 billion below Intel’s market cap.
Arm 1 year chart showing huge gain in February 2024
Arm 1 year chart showing huge gain in February 2024
AI demand fuels Arm’s success
Last week, Arm said it could double the price for its latest instruction set, which accounts for 15% of the company’s royalties, suggesting it can expand its margin and make more money off new chips. It also said it was breaking into new markets, such as cloud servers and automotive, due to AI demand.
Its royalty strength combined with Arm’s optimistic growth forecast has made the company the latest AI darling among investors, despite a higher earnings multiple than Nvidia or AMD.
The index continues its march breaking all-time records on its way
The index continues on its march breaking all-time records on its journey
Nasdaq 100 climbs to new record 9th February 2024
A solid earnings season, easing inflation data and a resilient economy have charged 2024′s market rally. It has helped propel the Nasdaq 100 to close at these new highs!
We are enjoying good news at an economic and earnings level, and the market is reacting positively. The longer the good news story plays out, the more likely it will be that the market will hold from here.
FOMO or the fear of missing out is likely playing its part here too.
The S&P 500 climbed to a new all-time high of 5026 on 9th February 2024
Stocks rose on Friday 9th February 2024 after December’s revised inflation reading came in lower than first reported, and the S&P 500 closed above the key 5,000 level as strong earnings and economic news came in.
A solid earnings season, easing inflation data and a resilient economy have charged 2024′s market rally. It propelled the S&P 500 to close above the 5,000 level after first touching the milestone during the trading week. The index first crossed 4,000 in April 2021.
We are enjoying good news at an economic and earnings level, and the market is reacting positively. The longer the good news story plays out, the more likely it will be that the market will hold from here.
But it won’t take much to spoil the party, right now I don’t know what that might be…?
S&P 500 1-year chart 9th February 2024 – new all-time high of 5026
S&P 500 1 year chart 9th February 2024 – new all-time high of 5026
FOMO or the fear of missing out is likely playing its part here too.
After a decade-long bull run throughout the 1980’s, the Nikkei 225 index reached an all-time high of 38,915 on December 29, 1989, the last trading day of the year.
Few could have imagined, on New Year’s Eve of 1989, that the index would be lower 34 years later. As the New Year arrived, the bubble burst.
And now, Japan’s stock markets are on a tear and closing in on that elusive 38195 high of 1989 – but there’s a catch – the Zombies are coming.
Zombie companies
Zombie firms are businesses that are unprofitable and struggling to keep afloat. They don’t have excess capital to invest and grow the business, or to pay down the loan capital.
Concerns about zombie firms are coming into focus as the Bank of Japan is tipped to raise interest rates in 2024 for the first time since 2007.
It comes as the Nikkei 225 rises to its highest point in almost 34 years
Japan’s stock markets have been on a meteoric run since the start of 2023, repeatedly breaching 33-year highs and outperforming the rest of Asia.
However, there are rising concerns that so called ‘zombie’ firms, which are unprofitable and struggling to keep afloat, could cut short that rally. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise interest rates this year, and that could easily tip many of these firms into bankruptcy, which could have a broader impact on the economy and stock market,
Nikkei 225 1-year chart 9th February 2024
Nikkei 225 1-year chart 9th February 2024
Bankrupt businesses
Zombie firms are nothing new in Japan. They first emerged after the stock ‘bubble’ and subsequent crash of the 1990s, when banks continued to support companies that would have otherwise gone bankrupt.
The pandemic of 2020 accelerated the problem of zombie businesses, with the number of zombie firms in Japan reportedly jumping by around 33% between 2021 and 2022.
At the end of 2023, Japan reportedly had around 250,000 companies that are technically zombie businesses
Some experts argue that zombie firms are a drag on Japan’s productivity, innovation, and growth, as they occupy resources and crowd out more efficient firms. The debate on how to deal with zombie firms is ongoing and may have implications for Japan’s economic recovery and future prospects.
Others suggest that zombie firms may have a positive effect, such as preserving employment, social stability, and industrial diversity.
Surely, there is no room for inefficiently run businesses making little or no profit in any economy.
U.S. stocks have had a good year in 2023, and a great start to 2024 with new record highs being set.
Many major indices have recorded double-digit gains. However, some analysts have warned that the rally may not last, as it has been driven by a few large-cap technology and growth stocks, while many other sectors and regions have lagged behind.
A stock market rally is a broad and rapid rise in share prices, often defined as a 20% increase from a recent low.
This could indicate a lack of breadth and sustainability in the rally, and potentially signal a market pullback, correction or even a crash in the future.
Bull bear, bull?
Chartists with their technical analysis might see a pattern that points to a substantial upside, but they should not get too carried away with their own observations, right now would be a sensible time for markets to find level ground, if only temporarily.
The bullish view is that the ‘laggards’ should catch up the ‘mega cap’ stalwarts once again. The bearish view is that the ‘mega cap’ stocks’ will realise they’ve gone too far and need to ride back to the rest of the market. Too few stocks in the same sector hold the balance of power – go check out the Magnificent 7 or even the old FANG stocks.
Catch-up
Either way, there ought to be an opportunity for underrepresented sectors and industries to gain lost ground.
The question is, will there be a pause to allow laggards to catch-up, or will the mega caps simply continue on their march?
