Singapore among world’s first to agree stablecoin crypto regulation – the race is on…

Stablecoins

Big news for the crypto industry

Singapore’s financial regulator has reportedly said it had finalised rules for a type of digital currency called ‘stablecoin’, placing it among some of first the regulators worldwide to do so.

Stablecoins are a type of digital currency designed to hold a constant value against a fiat currency. Many claim to be backed by a reserve of real-world assets, such as cash or government bonds.

Reserves that back stabelcoins must be held in low-risk and highly-liquid assets. They must equal or exceed the value of the stablecoin in circulation at all times, the rules say. The stablecoin market is valued at around $125 billion, with two tokens – Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC – dominating roughly 90% of the market cap value. Stablecoins are broadly unregulated around the world.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) framework requirement

  • Reserves that back stabelcoins must be held in low-risk and highly-liquid assets. They must equal or exceed the value of the stablecoin in circulation at all times
  • Stablecoin issuers must return the par value of the digital currency to holders within five business days of a redemption request.
  • Issuers must also provide ‘appropriate disclosures‘ to users, including the audit results of reserves.

These rules will apply to stablecoins that are issued in Singapore and mimic the value of the Singapore dollar, or of any G10 currencies, such as the U.S. dollar.

Stablecoin regulation
‘Shackles being removed from crypto regulation paving way for stablecoin adoption’

Last year, the collapse of a so-called algorithmic stablecoin named UST put this type of stablecoin in the crosshairs of regulators. Unlike USDT and USDC, UST was governed by an algorithm and did not have real-world assets like bonds in its reserves.

Singapore’s stablecoin framework puts it among one of the first jurisdictions to have such rules. In June, the U.K. passed a law that gives regulators the ability to oversee stablecoins, though there are no concrete rules yet. Hong Kong is meanwhile undergoing a public consultation on stablecoins and seeks to introduce regulation next year.

What is a stablecoin

A stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency that tries to maintain a stable value by being pegged to another asset, such as a fiat currency, a commodity, or another cryptocurrency. Stablecoins aim to offer the benefits of cryptocurrencies, such as decentralisation, security, and transparency, without the drawbacks of high volatility and price fluctuations.

Stablecoins can be used for payments, remittances, trading, and storing value. However, stablecoins also face some challenges and risks, such as regulatory uncertainty, technical issues, and trust issues.

There are different ways to create and manage stablecoins, depending on the mechanism used to stabilize their value.

Main types of stablecoins

  • Fiat-backed: These stablecoins are backed by a reserve of fiat currency, such as the US dollar or the euro, held by a third-party entity. The stablecoin issuer promises to redeem the stablecoin for the fiat currency at a fixed ratio. Examples of fiat-backed stablecoins are Tether (USDT), USD Coin (USDC), and TrueUSD (TUSD).
  • Commodity-backed: These stablecoins are backed by a reserve of physical commodities, such as gold, silver, or oil, held by a third-party entity. The stablecoin issuer promises to redeem the stablecoin for the commodity at a fixed ratio. Examples of commodity-backed stablecoins are Paxos Gold (PAXG), Tether Gold (XAUT), and Digix Gold (DGX).
  • Crypto-backed: These stablecoins are backed by a reserve of other cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, held in a smart contract. The stablecoin issuer uses over-collateralization or algorithmic adjustments to maintain the stability of the stablecoin. Examples of crypto-backed stablecoins are Dai (DAI), sUSD (SUSD), and BitUSD (BITUSD).
  • Algorithmic: These stablecoins are not backed by any reserve, but instead use an algorithm to control the supply and demand of the stablecoin. The algorithm adjusts the supply of the stablecoin according to the market conditions and the target price. Examples of algorithmic stablecoins are Basis Cash (BAC), Empty Set Dollar (ESD), and TerraUSD (UST).

What is ‘crypto’

Crypto has attracted a lot of attention in recent years. Crypto is short for cryptocurrency, which is a digital or virtual currency that uses cryptography to secure and verify transactions. Crypto can also refer to the underlying technology that powers cryptocurrencies, such as blockchain.

Some examples of popular cryptocurrencies are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple ( XRP)and Cardano (ADA).

Cryptoman superhero

Cryptocurrencies have many advantages over traditional currencies, such as decentralisation, transparency, anonymity, and lower fees. However, they also face some challenges, such as volatility, regulation, security, and scalability. Crypto enthusiasts believe that cryptocurrencies have the potential to revolutionise the world of finance and beyond.

Some examples of popular stablecoins are Tether, USD Coin and Binance USD.

Asia promotes Crypto clarity as U.S. muddles through with uncertainty

Asia embracing crypto

Clear crypto rules

Asia is promoting clear crypto rules at a time when large businesses are facing regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. 

Some Asian countries that have taken the lead in crypto regulation include Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea. They have proposed or implemented frameworks that protect investors, prevent money laundering, and encourage innovation in the crypto industry.

Lack of clarity in U.S.

In contrast, the U.S. has been singled out for its lack of clarity and consistency in crypto regulation. The SEC for instance and other agencies have different views on how to classify and regulate crypto assets – take alook at the case with XRP and ripple of recent years.

Some industry leaders have threatened to leave the U.S. or sued the regulators over their actions. There is also a debate in Congress that could level crypto transactions with a tax.

Attractive

As a result, some analysts have suggested that Asia could become more attractive to investors and innovators in the crypto industry, as it offers more certainty and stability in the regulatory environment. 

However, there are also challenges and risks involved in crypto regulation, such as balancing security and innovation, ensuring compliance and enforcement, and dealing with cross-border issue.

Welcome to the birth of digtal currency.

UK strike action and wage growth – repeats

Strike action

Wages grew at a record annual pace between April and June 2023, according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Regular pay grew by 7.8%, the highest annual growth rate since comparable records began in 2001.Inflation, which measures the pace at which prices are rising, has eased but remains relatively high at 7.9%. Thhe ONS suggested these latest figures demonstrates ‘people’s real pay is recovering‘ and that basic pay is growing at its fastest since current records began’.

However, wage growth is still not quite outstripping the pace of price rises and inflation is still high. Figures suggest that, taking into account the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure of inflation, average regular pay fell by 0.6%.

There are signs in the ONS’s data that the UK employment market is easing. The jobless rate rose from 4% to 4.2%, while the number of people in employment ticked lower.

Backward stats..?

The fall in employment in the three months to June and the further rise in the unemployment rate will be welcomed by the Bank of England as a sign labour market conditions are cooling. These comments from an analyst were presented as welcome news – but they are odd really when an economy needs good levels of employment (not unemployment). We live in weird times! Good news! Bad news!

The Bank of England is still generally expected by many pundits to increase its key interest rate again to 5.5% before ending the current run of rate rises.

The number of vacancies in the UK jobs market fell again, down 66,000 between May and July 2023. However, there are still more than one million vacancies.

Strike action adds to inflationary pressure

List of workers striking for higher pay

  • Teachers
  • Tube staff
  • Railway workers
  • Doctors
  • Nurses
  • NHS staff
  • Ambulance workers
  • Passport Office workers
  • Border control staff
  • Airport workers
  • Civil servants
  • University staff
  • Barristers

This is by no means an exhaustive list – just a sample of the demands placed on resources through strike action that impacts inflation through a period of fast wage growth.

Russia surprises with massive interest rate hike hit of 3.5%

Russia Interest rate increase

Interest rate pushed to 12%

Russia’s central bank has announced a surprise hike in its key lending rate by 3.5%, from 8.5% to 12%, as the country’s economic recovery loses steam amid a resurgence of COVID-19 cases and weak domestic demand.

The decision was announced after an emergency meeting of the bank’s board of directors was called a day earlier as the ruble declined. The fall comes as Moscow increases military spending and Western sanctions weigh on its energy exports.

The Russian currency passed 101 roubles to the dollar on Monday, losing more than a third of its value since the beginning of the year and hitting the lowest level in almost 17 months. It had recovered slightly after the central bank announced the meeting.

The central bank blamed the weak ruble on ‘loose monetary policy‘, suggesting that bank has ‘all the tools necessary‘ to stabilize the situation.

More imports, less exports

By raising borrowing costs, the central bank is trying to fight price spikes as Russia imports more and exports less, especially oil and natural gas, with defense spending going up and sanctions taking a toll. Importing more and exporting less means a smaller trade surplus, which typically weighs on a country’s currency.

The bank also made a big rate hike of 1% last month, saying inflation is expected to keep rising and the fall in the ruble is adding to the risk.

After Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the ruble plunged to a low of 130 to the dollar, but the central bank enacted capital controls that stabilized its value.

China cuts interest rates to boost economic recovery

China interest rate

Surprise cut

China’s central bank has announced a surprise cut in its key lending rates as the country’s economic recovery loses steam amid as domestic demand remains weak.

The PBOC trimmed the interest rate on 401 billion yuan ($55.25 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans from 2.65% to 2.50%.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said on Monday 14th August 2023 that it would lower the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 10 basis points from 3.55% to 3.45%, and the five-year LPR by 10 basis points from 4.2% to 4.1%. The LPRs are benchmark rates that reflect the cost of borrowing for banks and businesses.

Easing domestic contraints

The rate cuts are aimed at easing the financial constraints on households and businesses to boost their financing demand and stimulating economic growth, which slowed to 5.2% year-on-year in the second quarter, down from 6.8% in the first quarter.

Analysts said the rate cuts also indicated a shift in China’s monetary policy stance from neutral to moderately easing, as the PBOC faces increasing pressure to support the economy amid rising deflationary risks, falling producer and consumer prices, and subdued real estate activity.

The PBOC reportedly said it would continue to implement a prudent monetary policy and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the market.

Britain to unlock £50 billion in pension funding for tech startups

Money in case

UK to unleash £50 billion in pension funding for tech startups

The U.K. government has unveiled a series of reforms that will allow pension funds to invest more in private and high-growth companies, especially in the tech sector. The move is expected to boost economic growth, support innovation and increase returns for future retirees.

The reforms include an agreement with the country’s largest defined contribution pension schemes to allocate 5% of assets in their default funds to unlisted equities by 2030. This could unlock up to £50 billion of investment in high-growth firms if all other defined contribution pension schemes follow suit, according to the government.

AI

The government will also create new investment vehicles that will give pensioners a stake in homegrown private companies, such as fintech and biotech startups, that have increasingly snubbed the London Stock Exchange and turned to foreign investors for cash. The aim is to make the U.K. a more attractive market for technology and a global leader in emerging fields like artificial intelligence.

The Treasury claimed that the reforms would not only help burgeoning industries, but could also result in higher returns for workers’ retirement funds. The government estimates that the average earner’s pension pot could rise up to 12% to as much as £16,000 with defined contribution pension schemes committing to more effective investments.

Unlock

The announcement comes amid criticism that the U.K. is losing its edge in technology and innovation, as evidenced by the recent decision of U.K. chip design giant Arm to list in New York rather than London. The chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, reportedly said that he wanted to make the U.K. ‘the world’s next Silicon Valley and a science superpower’ by unlocking investment from the U.K.’s £2.5 trillion pensions sector.

The reforms were welcomed by industry groups and experts, who said that they would help address the funding gap faced by many U.K. startups and scale-ups, and create more opportunities for long-term growth and value creation.

U.S. to ban some U.S. investments in China tech sector

U.S. AI tech restrictions plan proposed

The U.S. will ban American investment in some areas of China’s high-tech sector, including artificial intelligence, adding to strained relations between the two superpowers.

U.S. firms will also be invited to disclose what investments they make in China in high-tech sectors.The much-anticipated move gives the U.S. government new power to screen foreign dealings by private companies. The U.S. said the measure would be narrowly targeted. However, it is poised to further chill economic relations between the world’s two largest economies. China has reportedly said it was ‘very disappointed‘. The U.S. ‘has continuously escalated suppression and restrictions on China‘. He added that White House claims that the US was not seeking to hurt China’s economy or separate the two countries did not match its actions. ‘We urge the US side to honour its words‘.

Biden order

The order by U.S. President Biden formally kicks off the push to introduce rules to restrict, even prevent American businesses from investing in firms from ‘countries of concern‘ that are active in advanced semiconductors, quantum computing and certain areas of artificial intelligence.

The government will also require U.S. firms to notify the Treasury Department of investments in firms working on a wider range of artificial intelligence and semiconductor technology.

AI tech
U.S. restriction on AI related tech knowledge to China

The rules are not expected to apply to ‘portfolio’ investments, in which firms invest passively in companies via the stock market, but are focused on active investments made by private equity and venture capital businesses. They will now enter a public ‘reflection’ period, which is expected to further clarify what kinds of investments are off-limits. The rules are not expected to go into effect for sometime yet. This new ‘order’ is quite a big deal.

In a briefing with reporters, senior administration officials said the measure was a ‘national security action, not an economic one‘. They said the U.S. remained committed to open investment.

Investment control

Controls on outbound investment are rare among advanced economies, currently present only in Japan and Korea, according to a 2022 report.

In the U.S., prior restrictions on China trade have relied on limiting sales of sensitive technology by U.S. firms and screening Chinese investments in American companies. The Trump administration had also barred investments in firms tied to China’s military.

The latest measure has widespread support in Washington, where it is seen as fixing a regulatory gap concerning financial flows that risks allowing American money and know-how to to flow into China.

International support

The U.S. has been trying to build international support for the investment curbs with some signs of success.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in May 2023 said the UK government would consider curbs on outbound investment; the European Commission put forward a proposal focused on investments in sensitive technologies earlier this summer. It is not clear how significantly the order would affect flows of investment.

China was the number two destination for foreign investment in 2022, behind the U.S., but many reports suggest money flowing into the country from the U.S. and elsewhere has dropped sharply as geopolitical relations sour. In the UK, a recent survey by the Institute of Directors found that one in five UK importers had already switched investments away from the country due to geopolitical tensions.

China has responded to the curbs with its own rules, including limits on exports of some critical minerals used to make computer chips.

Gallium and Germanium
Gallium and Germanium considered critical elements required in the production of microchips

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who visited China in July 2023 in an attempt to ease tensions, said last month she did not think the coming curbs would have a fundamental impact on the investment climate in the country.

Will these measures likely damage the U.S. in the future by escalating issues and restricting the U.S. from other shared advancements in technology – only time will tell.

Tech’ rivalry

U.S. and China are two of the world’s leading powers in artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors, which are essential components for many AI applications such as self-driving cars, smart phones, and cloud computing. However, the two countries have also been engaged in a fierce competition and rivalry over these technologies, as they seek to gain an edge in innovation, security, and economic growth. Some of the issues that have caused tensions between U.S. and China include trade disputes, intellectual property theft, cyberattacks, human rights violations, and military expansion.

AI chips

AI semiconductors are designed to perform complex calculations and tasks that require high levels of intelligence, such as natural language processing, computer vision, and machine learning.

These chips can be classified into two types: general-purpose chips that can run various AI algorithms, and specialized chips that are optimized for specific AI functions or domains.

The race is on…

Credit card debt in the U.S. reaches new high of $1 trillion

Credit cards

Problem?

Americans are using their credit cards more than ever, pushing the total balance to over $1 trillion for the first time in history, according to a report from the New York Federal Reserve.

The report, released August 2023, showed that credit card balances rose by $45 billion to $1.03 trillion in the second quarter of 2023, reflecting robust consumer spending as well as higher prices due to inflation. The increase was the largest quarterly gain since 2008 and surpassed the previous record of $1.02 trillion set in 2019.

The rise in credit card debt also coincided with a higher payment failure rate, which measures the share of borrowers who are at least 30 days behind on their payments. The failure measure climbed to 7.2% in the second quarter, up from 6.5% in the first quarter and the highest level since 2012.

The New York Fed reportedly said that the increase in failure rates may reflect a normalization to pre-pandemic levels, as many lenders offered relief programs and forbearance options to borrowers during the Covid-19 crisis. However, some analysts warned that the high level of credit card debt could pose a risk to the financial stability of households and the economy if interest rates rise or incomes fall.

Expensive debt

Credit card debt is one of the most expensive forms of debt, and it can quickly spiral out of control if not managed. ‘Consumers should aim to pay off their balances in full every month, or at least pay more than the minimum due, to avoid paying unnecessary interest and fees.

The burden of debt is all to consuming!

Interest rates and fees on credit cards are one of the highest payable and if you fall into the debt spiral it can be almost impossible to liberate yourself from that consuming debt.

Younger users

The New York Fed also noted that credit card usage has become more widespread among Americans, especially among younger and lower-income borrowers. The share of adults with at least one credit card increased from 76% in 2019 to 79% in 2021, while the share of those with four or more cards rose from 18% to 21% over the same period.

Tool

The report suggested that credit cards have become an essential tool for many consumers to access credit and smooth purchases over time, especially during periods of economic uncertainty and volatility. However, it also cautioned that credit cards can also lead to overborrowing and financial distress if not used responsibly.

It is one of the most expensive ways to borrow money and far too easy to access.

Alarm bells sound for China as data indicates deflationary pressure

Deflation

Deflation or inflation?

China’s consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3% in August from a year ago, while the producer price index (PPI) fell by 4.4% last month. This is the first time since February 2021 that the CPI has fallen, and the 10th consecutive month that the PPI has contracted. This indicates that China is experiencing deflation pressure as demand in the world’s second-largest economy weakens.

Factors that contribute to the deflation risk

  • A prolonged property market slump, which reduces investment and consumption.
  • A plunging demand for exports, due to the global economic slowdown and trade tensions with the United States.
  • A subdued consumer spending, due to the coronavirus pandemic and rising unemployment.

Deflation can have negative effects on the economy

  • Lowering profits and incomes for businesses and households.
  • Increasing the real value of debt and making it harder to repay.
  • Reducing incentives for investment and innovation.
  • Creating a downward spiral of falling prices and demand.

The Chinese government and the central bank have taken some measures to stimulate the economy and prevent deflation.

  • Cutting interest rates and reserve requirement ratios for banks.
  • Increasing fiscal spending and issuing special bonds for infrastructure projects.
  • Providing tax relief and subsidies for businesses and consumers.

However, these measures have not been enough to offset the deflationary pressure, and some analysts expect more monetary easing and fiscal support in the coming months.

Deflation definition

Deflation is the opposite of inflation. It means that the prices of goods and services are going down over time. This may sound good for consumers, who can buy more with the same amount of money. But deflation can also have negative effects on the economy.

Deflation can be caused by a decrease in the supply of money and credit, a fall in demand, or an increase in productivity. To prevent or reverse deflation, the central bank and the government can use monetary and fiscal policies to stimulate the economy, much the same as we are now seeing to deal with ‘inflation’.

Bad Bank Practice

Central banker

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has asked the City watchdog to speed up a probe into whether people have had bank accounts closed due to their political views

It follows a row over the closure of former UKIP leader Nigel Farage’s Coutts account.

Mr Hunt requested the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to ‘urgently investigate how widespread this practice is, and put a stop to it’. The FCA reportedly said Mr Hunt’s request is ‘in line with our plans‘.

It comes after Mr Farage obtained a report from Coutts which indicated his political views were considered as a factor in his account closure. Mr Farage had his account re-instated and has launched a campaign against account closures which has received support from government ministers.

Express or suppress?

The FCA is already preparing to look into this, and banks also face government reforms over account closures. Mr Hunt reportedly said: ‘You can agree or disagree with Nigel Farage but everyone wants to be able to express their opinions’.

‘In today’s society, you need a bank account function and so a threat to be de-banked is a threat to your right to express your opinions‘.

Mr Hunt expressed the FCA has the power to fine banks ‘very large sums of money if they find this practice widespread’.

Bank of England says inflation rate 5% by Christmas 2023?

Bank Governor

That’s still 3% above the target of 2%

The Bank of England’s forecasting, which has a major impact on the UK economy, is being reviewed and has been criticised.

After the Bank raised interest rates for a 14th time in a row in an effort to slow price rises in Augts 2023, officials have predicted inflation to fall from the current rate of 7.9%, to ‘around 5%‘ by the end of the year. The Bank puts rates up when they are concerned that too much spending will send prices spiralling.

So, in light of its estimating techniques being challenged, how much faith should we put in ‘5% by Christmas’?

For the last two years, the Bank of England has been underestimating the likely rate of inflation in the short term. MPs have been critical of the Bank’s forecast, and its officials have acknowledged they have got some judgements wrong in their forecasting.

The Central Bank has also announced a review into how it makes forecasts.

This was one of the questions put to the Bank of England governor

Mr Baron: Good morning, everyone. In looking at the bank rate going forward, some of us, it is fair to say, have long believed that central banks, including the Bank of England, have been well behind the curve with regard to inflation. As the Chair has said, forecasting has been awry. The Bank of England is one among others that has been too slow in raising interest rates, allowing inflation to mushroom well above the 2% target.

I have put it as strongly as suggesting that it has been a woeful neglect of duty. It is causing real pain out there for people and businesses. We should always remember, as we sit in our, sometimes, white ivory towers, having these debates, that we are talking about people’s lives and businesses that are having to grapple with double-digit inflation and interest rates perhaps going up too quickly. I think that you get it, but it is useful to remind ourselves of that.

Why should the public have confidence in your ability to get it right going forward? What lessons do you think that you have learned? What are you going to do differently? I am not hearing a satisfactory answer to that...

See the full report here – be prepared, it’s an acquired taste and a long read…

More wrong than right

However, some critics have argued that the BoE’s forecasts are often too optimistic or pessimistic, and that they fail to capture the impact of major shocks or structural changes in the economy. For example, the BoE was widely criticised for underestimating the severity of the 2008 financial crisis and overestimating the negative effects of Brexit on the economy. Some have also questioned the usefulness of the BoE’s forecasts for guiding monetary policy decisions, as they may be influenced by political or psychological factors.

Therefore, it may be wise to take the BoE’s forecasts with a grain of salt, and not to rely on them too much for making economic or financial decisions. The BoE’s forecasts are not useless, but they are not infallible either. They are one of many sources of information and analysis that can help us understand the state and prospects of the UK economy, but they should not be treated as gospel truth.

The Bank of England has been wrong with too many forecasts, so why bother? Target 2%, actual above 10%!

I rest my case.

‘All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others’

George Orwell quote from Animal Farm, 'All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others'

George Orwell 1903 – 1950 

This is the famous quote in the novel Animal Farm where it suggests ‘we are all equal, but some are more equal than others’.

Animal Farm is a fable by George Orwell that criticizes the corruption of power and the dangers of totalitarianism.

It appears in the last chapter of the novel, when the pigs have changed the original commandment of ‘All animals are equal‘ to justify their tyranny and privilege over the other animals. It is an example of how the pigs use language to manipulate and deceive the other animals, and how they betray the ideals of the ‘revolution’ that Old Major inspired.

Draw your own conclusions and comaparisons to ‘human’ behaviour…

George Orwell quote from Animal Farm, 'All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others'
George Orwell quote from Animal Farm, ‘All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others’

See other quotes

Hunt – caught in a trap

Chancellor

According to the chancellor Jeremy Hunt, the UK economy is caught in a trap

The UK and other advanced economies are facing a low-growth trap that is hard to escape. This means that the potential growth of the economy, which depends on factors such as productivity, innovation, investment, and labour force, is very low and insufficient to meet the demand and expectations of the people.

Brexit

The UK economy has been hit by huge global shocks that have disrupted its normal functioning and recovery. These include the Covid-19 pandemic, which caused lockdowns, restrictions, and health crises; the energy crisis, which led to soaring gas prices and supply shortages; and the Brexit transition, which created uncertainty and trade barriers.

Inflation

The UK economy is also struggling with high inflation, which erodes the purchasing power of consumers and businesses. Inflation is driven by various factors, such as rising energy costs, global supply chain bottlenecks, labour shortages, and pent-up demand.

Chancellor
‘Don’t you just love numbers?’

The Bank of England has raised interest rates to 5.25% as of August 2023 – the highest level since 2008, to curb inflation and maintain price stability. The Bank of England inflation target is 2%.

The plan?

The chancellor reportedly has vowed to stick to the plan that he believes will bring down inflation and boost growth in the long term.

He said that he will unveil a plan in the autumn statement that will show how the UK can break out of the low-growth trap and become one of the most entrepreneurial economies in the world. He also said that he will not ‘veer around like a shopping trolley‘ and change course in response to short-term pressures.

Western EV makers look to tech to compete in the world’s top EV market, China

Electric Car

Leader

China has been leading the global electric vehicle (EV) market for years, thanks to its large domestic demand, generous government subsidies, and well-established battery and electronics industry. However, the west is not giving up on the race to electrify the transport sector and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Europe reportedly surpassed China in terms of new EV registrations in 2020, driven by stricter emission regulations, higher consumer awareness, and more diverse and affordable models. The United States also saw a growth in EV sales, despite the Covid-19 pandemic and lower fuel prices. How are western countries and companies now competing with China in the EV market?

Global automakers such are using advanced tech such as driver-assist software to compete in the world’s largest EV market – China. ‘China’s domestic brands are leading the market in the development and implementation of advanced assisted driving systems, capitalizing on their early-entry advantages in the electric and intelligent vehicle sector‘, a recent report suggests.

BofA reportedly said it expects China to still be the world’s largest EV market in 2025, standing at 40%-45% market share.

Strategy

One of the strategies is to invest more in research and development, innovation, and collaboration. Western automakers are trying to improve the performance, efficiency, and cost of their EVs by developing new technologies and designs, such as advanced batteries, smart and autonomous features, and sustainable materials. They are also partnering with other players in the EV ecosystem, such as battery suppliers, charging network operators, software developers, and regulators, to create synergies and overcome challenges.

EV

Another strategy is to adapt to local market conditions and consumer preferences. Western automakers are aware that China is not a homogeneous market, but rather a complex and dynamic one with different regional characteristics, customer segments, and competitive landscapes. They are tailoring their products and services to meet the specific needs and expectations of Chinese consumers, such as offering more connectivity options, longer driving ranges, and lower prices. They are also leveraging their global brand reputation, quality standards, and customer loyalty to differentiate themselves from local competitors.

Niche markets

A third strategy is to diversify their portfolio and target niche markets. Western automakers are not only focusing on passenger cars, but also exploring other types of EVs, such as commercial vehicles, motorcycles, scooters, and buses. They are also targeting niche markets that have high growth potential or specific demands, such as luxury cars, sports cars, or green cars. By doing so, they can tap into new customer segments and create more opportunities.

The EV market is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years, as more countries and regions adopt policies and measures to support the transition to low-carbon mobility. China will remain a dominant player in the global EV scene, but the west will not lag behind.

How do EV’s compare to traditional vehicles?

Electric vehicles (EVs) are becoming more popular and competitive with traditional cars in terms of performance and cost. Here are some of the main differences and similarities between EVs and traditional cars:

Performance: EVs have a faster acceleration and are more efficient than traditional cars. They can reach high speeds in a short time, thanks to their instant torque rovided by the electric motor. They also have a smoother and quieter ride, as they do not have gears or transmissions. However, traditional cars perform better at high speeds and have a longer driving range than EVs. They can also handle different terrains and weather conditions better than EVs, as they have more power and stability.

Cost: EVs have a higher retail price than traditional cars, on average. But EVs may be a better financial deal for consumers over the long term. That’s because maintenance, repair and fuel costs tend to be lower than those for fossil fuel cars. EVs have fewer moving parts and fluids, which means they require less servicing and repairs. They also run on electricity, which is cheaper and cleaner than fossil derived fuels. However, traditional cars have lower upfront costs and more financing options than EVs. They also have a higher resale value and more availability than EVs, as they are more common and therefore familiar to buyers.

Environmental impact: EVs are more environmentally friendly than traditional cars, as they do not emit greenhouse gases or pollutants that contribute to air quality problems. They can also use renewable energy sources, such as solar or wind power, to charge their batteries and use fossil derived energy too.

However, EVs are not completely carbon-neutral, as they still depend on the electricity grid, which still uses fossil fuels to generate power. They also produce emissions during their manufacture and disposal processes.

Traditional cars, on the other hand, are a major source of carbon emissions and environmental damage, as they burn fossil fuels and release harmful substances into the atmosphere such as carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide. They also consume natural resources and create waste during their production and operation.

Energy generation
Fossil fuels generate power for the electric vehicle

As the EV population grows, so too will the energy requirement – and it will most likely be met moreso by fossil fuels in the short term as well as by renewables.

According to various sources, electric cars are generally cheaper to run than petrol cars in terms of fuel, road tax, maintenance, and insurance. However, the initial purchase price of electric cars is usually higher than petrol cars, so the overall cost of ownership may depend on how long you plan to keep the car and how much you drive it.

Running cost examples of electric cars vs petrol cars – (Spring 2023 data)

  • According to British Gas – fully charging a typical 60kW electric car at home costs £15.10 and gives you a 200-mile range, whereas filling up a petrol car with a similar range costs over £104. Electric cars also pay zero road tax, while petrol cars pay between £30 to £2,365 per year depending on their CO2 emissions. Electric cars also tend to have lower maintenance and insurance costs than petrol cars.
  • According to Regit – charging an electric car like the Vauxhall Corsa-E costs roughly £9.50 in electricity for a 200-mile range, while fuelling a petrol car with a similar range costs £41.63 in petrol. Electric cars also save money on road tax, maintenance, and congestion charges compared to petrol cars.
  • According to Which? – the electric Mini Cooper SE costs £8,000 more to buy than the petrol Mini One, but it costs £2,591 less to run over three years, mainly due to fuel savings. The electric car also pays no road tax or congestion charges, while the petrol car pays £155 and £11.50 per day respectively.
  • According to Auto Express – the annual running costs of an electric car are 21% less than those of a petrol car, excluding the purchase price. The average annual running cost for an electric car is £1,742, compared to £2,205 for a petrol car.
  • According to RAC – the annual running costs of an electric car like the Nissan Leaf are £1,233 less than those of a petrol car like the Ford Focus, excluding the purchase price. The electric car costs £1,062 per year to run, while the petrol car costs £2,295

Conclusion

There are many factors that affect the running costs of electric cars vs petrol cars, and different sources may have different assumptions and methods of calculation. However, the general trend is that electric cars are cheaper to run than petrol cars in most cases.

Hydrogen and hybrids are fast becoming future contenders. Watch this space…

What China’s new stance in microchip battle means

Gallium and Germanium

Gallium and germanium

No, nor me – never heard of them, but they are extremely important elements needed in microchip manufacturing and China is the world’s largest producer.

Germanium and gallium are two elements that are used in the production of semiconductor chips, which are essential for various electronic devices and technologies. They have different properties and applications, and they are both considered critical materials.

Germanium

Germanium is a metalloid, which means it has properties of both metals and non-metals. It is a shiny, hard, gray-white element that is brittle and can be cut easily with a knife. It has a high melting point of 938°C and a low boiling point of 2830°C. It is mainly obtained as a by-product of zinc production, but it can also be extracted from coal.

Germanium is used in, solar cells, fibre optic cables, infrared lenses light-emitting diodes (LEDs), and transistors. It is also used in some alloys to improve their strength and hardness. Germanium is essential for the defence and renewable energy sectors, as well as for space technologies. It can resist cosmic radiation better than silicon, and it can enhance the performance and efficiency of some semiconductors.

Gallium

Gallium is a metal that has a very low melting point of 29.8°C, which means it can melt in your hand. It is a soft, silvery-white element that can be easily cut with a knife. It has a high boiling point of 2403°C.  It is mainly obtained as a by-product of processing bauxite and zinc ores.

Gallium and Germanium considered critical elements required in the production of microchips

Gallium is used in the electronics industry to produce heat-resistant semiconductor wafers that can operate at higher frequencies than silicon-based ones. It is also used in LEDs, solar panels, microwave devices, sensors, and lasers. Gallium is important for the development of new technologies such as electric vehicles, high-end radio communications, and Blu-Ray players. It can also improve the power consumption and reliability of some semiconductors.

China the largest producer

China is the largest producer and exporter of both germanium and gallium, accounting for about 60% and 80% of the global supply. However, China has recently announced new export restrictions on these two elements, requiring special licences for exporters. This move is seen as a response to the western sanctions on China’s access to advanced microchip technology. 

The export curbs could affect the global supply chain of semiconductor chips and have implications for various industries and markets

Bank of England raises interest rate by 0.25% to 5.25% – highest in the G7

Bank of England

15 year high… and counting

The Bank of England (BoE) announced another increase in its base rate, from 5% to 5.25%, the highest level in over 15 years as of 3rd August 2023. This is the 14th consecutive rise since December 2021, when the BoE started to tighten monetary policy in response to rising inflation.

The Bank said that inflation, which fell to 7.9% in June, remained well above its 2% target and that further action was needed to bring it down. It also cited the risks posed by the global economic situation, especially the conflict in Ukraine and the slowdown in China.

Affect on borrowers

The rate hike will affect millions of borrowers and savers across the UK. Fixed-rate mortgages will not change until the end of their term, but new deals will be hit borrowers hard. Savers may see some benefit from higher interest rates, but only if banks and building societies pass on the increase, which they are slow to do.

Bear in mind that for the past 15 years many have benefitted from ultra low interest rates and cheap money, this is not the ‘norm’. And now, as more ‘normal’ interest rates return it will initially disrupt financial stability for some, and it will be difficult for many for a time. But money has been cheap and mortgages have always been the cheapest way to borrow long term and that is still the case – even if it doesn’t feel like it right now.

Expected

The Bank of England’s decision was widely expected by market analysts, but some have warned that further rate rises could damage the UK economy, which is already showing signs of weakness. House prices are falling, manufacturing activity is contracting and consumer confidence is low.

The prime minister, Rishi Sunak, said he was disappointed that inflation was not falling faster, but claimed that he was making progress and that there was ‘light at the end of the tunnel‘.

And a train too if he isn’t careful!

UK has the highest interest rate in the G7

Interest rates have been increasing across the world in recent months.

The Bank of England’s latest rate hike means the UK now has the highest rates in the G7 – a group of the world’s seven largest so-called ‘advanced’ economies.

That’s higher than France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada and the U.S.

If you think the UK’s got it bad, spare a thought for these countries where interest rates are rampant

  • Zimbabwe: 95%
  • Argentina: 97%
  • Ghana: 30%
  • Malawi: 24%
  • Iran: 23%
  • Turkey: 10.50%

Let’s not talk about inflation, just yet…

UK to issue new oil and gas licences for energy independence

Fossil fuels still needed for energy security

Green?

The UK government has announced a plan to issue over 100 new oil and gas licences in the North Sea, as part of its drive to make Britain more energy independent and reduce reliance on imports. The Prime Minister said that even when the UK reaches net zero by 2050, a quarter of its energy needs will still come from oil and gas.

Carbon Capture

The new licences will be subject to a climate compatibility test and will aim to unlock carbon capture and storage and hydrogen opportunities in the region. The government has also approved two new carbon capture projects in Scotland and the Humber, which are expected to be delivered by 2030.

Criticised

The move has been criticised by environmental groups, who argue that opening up new fossil fuel projects is incompatible with the UK’s climate goals and will undermine its leadership ahead of the COP26 summit in Glasgow. 

They also question the claim that domestic production is cleaner than imports, as the UK’s oil and gas sector is still responsible for significant emissions.

The government has said that it will support the transition of the North Sea industry to low-carbon technologies and protect more than 200,000 jobs in the sector. The UK government has also pledged to invest in renewable energy sources, such as offshore wind, to diversify the UK’s energy mix. 

FedNow: A New Instant Payment System for US Banks

Digital Dollar

New FED Payment System

The FEDNOW payment system is a new instant payment infrastructure developed by the Federal Reserve that allows financial institutions of every size across the U.S. to provide safe and efficient instant payment services. 

Live system

It went live on July 20, 2023 and enables individuals and businesses to send and receive money in near real-time, 24/7/365, through their depository institution accounts. 

The service is a flexible, neutral platform that supports a broad variety of instant payments and offers optional features such as fraud prevention tools, request for payment capability, and tools to support payment inquiries. 

FedNow is the first new payment rail in the United States since the introduction of the Automated Clearing House (ACH) in the early 1970s.

Digital Dollar?

Is this a possibly a pre-emptive strike to get ahead of international digital currency deployment and set the scene to adopt a digital payment structure of a new ‘crypto coin system’ for the future – the digital dollar?

Greed or need?

British Gas owner Centrica and Shell see profits soar as bills rise. 

Profit for the six months ending in June 2023 for British Gas owner Centrica rose to around £1.34bn from £262m a year earlier. The rise in profits came from the company’s nuclear and oil and gas business, rather than from the British Gas energy supply business which performed much worse. The average annual British Gas profit has been £584m in recent years.

Profit increase down to Ofgem ‘tweak’

However, the profit boom is surprisingly down to a ‘tweak’ to the regulator Ofgem’s energy price cap that allows the supplier to recover elements of the costs of supplying its 10 million customers during the energy crisis. 

The supplier’s current profit highs are likely to upset consumer groups that have campaigned against the supplier’s treatment of vulnerable energy customers as record energy market prices forced millions into fuel poverty. Some have called the profit making ‘legalised robbery’, and demanded to bring energy into public ownership.

Dividend plans

Centrica plans to raise its interim dividend by around a third but remarks that its underlying profitability will ease significantly in the second half of the year. Energy firms saw their profit margins hit last year when wholesale prices surged in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Wholesale prices also jumped as th UK emerged from the dark cloud Covid as markets undicated that the UK was ill prepared for the enconomic recovery. Brexit blues didn’t help either.

The energy price cap remains £1,000 above its pre-pandemic average, despite oil and natural gas costs easing significantly. It is predicted by industry ‘experts’ to remain around the £2,000 a year average for the coming winter months, maintaining excessive pressure on household budgets.

Some ‘windfall’ tax recovery, over the years will apparently go back to ‘society’, British Gas says.

Centrica chief executive reportedly said that a lot of the firm’s profits were ‘going back into society’.

I know it’s difficult to see the word profits, or dividends, or similar words when people are having a tough time. I’m very conscious of this,’ he reportedly said.

Windfall

‘Bear in mind, over the next couple of years we are expecting to pay a windfall tax of ‘probably‘ well over £600m on our UK gas business off the back of the profits that we’re seeing, so a lot of this is going back into society.’

A contentious thought

A business needs to make profits otherwise there is no business. It exits to make a profit and to supply a service or product – but it is about how that business makes its profit, isn’t it?

Token windfall tax temporarily slapped on by the UK government is only payable on UK profits. Oil and gas recovery companies will only pay a tax windfall on UK related profits not on overseas returns!

Profits from fossil fuel recovery invested in greener energy for the future – that’s a topic for another article.

Ripple effect! XRP surges after U.S. judge rules it is not a security in… some instances

XRP Ripple

SEC Ruling – July 2023

XRP, the native token of the blockchain company Ripple, soared more than 60% on Thursday after a U.S. judge delivered a major victory to the firm in its legal battle with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The SEC had sued Ripple in December 2020, alleging that it had raised over $1.3 billion through the sale of XRP in an unregistered securities offering. The SEC claimed that XRP was an investment contract that gave buyers the expectation of profits based on Ripple’s efforts.

However, the Judge ruled that XRP was not a security “on its face” and that some aspects of its sale did not violate the federal securities laws.

Crypto
Digital coin

The judge drew a distinction between the sales of XRP to institutional investors, which she said could constitute investment contracts, and the sales of XRP to the general public on exchanges, which did not.

Argument

The judge also denied Ripple’s argument that the SEC lacked jurisdiction over XRP transactions because they were not domestic, and agreed with the SEC that the Howey test, a four-pronged criteria to determine whether an asset is a security, applied to cryptocurrency transactions.

The ruling was welcomed by Ripple and its supporters, who argued that XRP was a utility token that facilitated cross-border payments and did not depend on Ripple’s efforts for its value.

Ripple’s chief legal officer, reportedly tweeted: “A huge win today – as a matter of law – XRP is not a security. Also, a matter of law – sales on exchanges are not securities. Sales by executives are not securities. Other XRP distributions – to developers, charities, and employees- are not securities.”

A lawyer representing over 19,000 XRP holders who intervened in the case, reportedly called on U.S. exchanges to relist XRP in solidarity with the decision.

Crypyo boost

The ruling also boosted the sentiment in the broader crypto market, as it suggested that the SEC did not have unlimited authority over digital assets and that some tokens could escape the securities classification.

Cryptocurrency
‘Have you seen the news? Crypto might possibly could be going manstream.’ ‘Oh WOW! – What’s crypto?’

Crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase and crypto-coins such as ADA, HBAR, BITCOIN & ETH surged following the news.

More to come?

However, the case is not quite over yet, as the SEC said it would continue to review the decision and pursue its claims against Ripple for the sales of XRP to institutional investors.

The SEC also responded to the judge’s ruling by saying that it did not change its position that XRP was a security and that it would seek to prove that Ripple violated the securities laws in certain circumstances.

The outcome of the case could have significant implications for the crypto industry, as it could set a precedent for how other tokens are regulated and how other lawsuits are resolved.

House Prices up 0.1% in June say Nationwide Building Society

Mortgae rates closing in on 6%

UK house prices have defied expectations by increasing slightly in June 2023 but annual prices fell at the fastest rate since 2009 as soaring mortgage costs took a toll on the market, according to Nationwide Building Society.

The surprise monthly rise of 0.1% reversed a 0.1% fall in May 2023 and surprised economic forecasts of a 0.3% fall! It pushed the average cost of a house in the UK up slightly to £262,239. House prices were 3.5% lower in June 2023 compared with a year earlier, the sharpest rate of decline since 2009.

The sharp increase in borrowing costs is likely to exert a significant drag on near-term housing market activity 

EZPC LOANS LTD. ‘How does 6% sound to you?’

It is important to note that the housing market is subject to fluctuations and can be influenced by various factors such as economic conditions, government policies, inflation, interest rate increases and global events.

Virgin Galactic rocket plane enters commercial service

It’s taken nearly 20 years, but Sir Richard Branson has finally begun commercial space flights with his Virgin Galactic rocket ship, Unity

On 29th. June 2023, Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic successfully launched its first commercial flight to the edge of space. The flight was carried out by the company’s SpaceShip Two space plane Unity with a special passenger on board: the company’s billionaire founder Richard Branson. Branson was accompanied by three crewmates and two pilots on the historic flight.

Virgin Galactic
Virgin Galactic 1

The flight took off from New Mexico in the US after being carried into launch position by Virgin Galactic’s carrier plane, Eve. The rocket ship reached an altitude of 53.5 miles above Earth’s surface before gliding back down to land at Spaceport America .

The vehicle flew high over the New Mexico desert on Thursday to enable three Italian astronauts to conduct science experiments in weightless conditions. Sir Richard will now begin sending up the 800 or so space flight customers who’ve bought tickets to ride on Unity.

72 minute mission

The 72-minute mission took off from Spaceport America at 08:30 local time (14:30 GMT) and was livestreamed around the world.

Just under an hour into the mission, after reaching an altitude of 13,600m (44,500ft), the carrier plane, Eve, then released Unity to ignite its engine and boost up to the edge of space. At the top of its climb, the rocket ship was at an altitude of 279,00ft (85km), touching the edge of space.

Success

This successful launch marks a major milestone for Virgin Galactic and the space tourism industry as a whole. With this achievement, Virgin Galactic has joined a small club of companies that can ferry paying customers to space, including Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin.

Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic has made history with its successful rocket ship launch on June 29th, 2023. This achievement marks a significant milestone for the space tourism industry and opens up new possibilities for commercial space travel in the future.