In 2023 Apple became the biggest smartphone vendor by shipments in China for the first time.
Last year, Honor, a spin-off from Chinese company Huawei, held the second spot with almost a 17% market share, followed by Vivo, Huawei and then Oppo.
One of the biggest changes in 2023 was Huawei’s return to the top five in China in the Q4. The iphone has been one of the world’s best-selling selling products of all time.
Since the introduction of the Appleiphone in 2007 by Steve Jobs, its inventor and company joint founder, it has gone on to sell 2.3 billion and has over 1.5 billion ‘active’ users. Not bad for a product that investors initially called ‘dead on arrival’ due to lack of interest and sales.
Nokia 3310
In 2007 the Nokia 3310 was the clear market leader and easily king of the mobile phone market. Nokia sold 7.4 million units in 2007 – Apple sold just 1.4 million. Nokia was the ‘go to product’. But not for long.
Oh my, how things have changed. Apple is the now the world’s best-selling product (not just the world’s best-selling phone) – with Nokia and many others left trailing in the dust.
Apple app store
It was the apps that done it; having a product that could be any number of different ‘products’ in one and held in your hand was a game changer – and that changed the world.
The rest is history.
Apple share price chart from 1984 (the year the Apple Macintosh was introduced)
Apple share price chart from 1984 (the year the Apple mac was introduced)
The U.S. economy grew at a much faster pace than expected in the final three months of 2023.
The U.S. easily avoided a recession that many had forecast as inevitable, the U.S. Commerce Department reported Thursday 25th January 2024.
Gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of all the goods and services produced, increased at a 3.3% annualised rate in the final quarter of 2023, according to data from the Commerce Department.
Core prices for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a preferred measure by the Federal Reserve as a longer-term inflation calculation, rose 2% for the period, while the rate was 1.7%.
On an annual basis, the PCE price index rose 2.7%, down from 5.9% a year ago, while the core figure excluding food and energy posted a 3.2% increase annually, compared with 5.1%.
Good news
Inflation falling, GDP rising, stabilizing interest rates and no recession thus far the U.S. economy is looking rock-solid despite all the negativity.
Turkey’s central bank on Thursday 25th January 2024 hiked its key interest rate to 45%.
It comes amid an ongoing struggle against double-digit inflation for Turkey’s policymakers, with the rate hike the latest step in that ongoing fight.
30 Turkish Lira to 1 U.S. dollar
Inflation in Turkey increased nearly 65% year-on-year in December 2023, up from 62% in November, and the country’s currency, the lira, hit a new record low against the U.S. dollar earlier in January 2024 at 30 Lira to $1.
Analysts predict this will be the last hike for some time, especially with local elections approaching in March 2024
Bitcoin climbed to touch $49,000 after the SEC recently gave the go ahead for the Bitcoin ETF. The last time I checked it was at $39,000 (23rd January 2024). Oh, dear me – the dramatic pain of volatility.
Bitcoin volatility has increased after the launch of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) rocked wildly, reaching a high of $49,000 and a low of $46,000 in just hours of trading.
Liquidation
This caused liquidations of millions in the Bitcoin market. Some analysts predict that the ETFs will bring more institutional investors and liquidity to the Bitcoin market, while others warn of the risks and challenges of the new investment vehicle.
Bitcoin ETFs are funds that track the price of Bitcoin and trade on stock exchanges, allowing investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without buying or storing it directly.
Bitcoin chart – 3 months 24th January 2024 at 15:26
Bitcoin chart – 3 months 24th January 2024 at 15:26
Leaders at some of the world’s leading artificial intelligence (AI) companies are expecting a form of AI on a par with, or even exceeding human intelligence to arrive sometime in the near future. But what it will eventually look like and how it will be applied are unknown.
Artificial General Intelligence or AGI is coming soon
Leaders from OpenAI, Microsoft and Google’s DeepMind, and many other major tech companies debated the risks and opportunities presented by AI at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland in January 2024.
AI has become the talk of ‘town’ around the world through 2023, mainly due to the success of ChatGPT, OpenAI’s popular generative AI chatbot, brought to us by Microsoft. Generative AI tools, like ChatGPT, are powered large language models, algorithms trained on vast quantities of data, but are not AGI.
Executives at some of the world’s leading artificial intelligence companies see ‘artificial general intelligence,’ or AGI, a hypothesized form of AI with intelligence on a par or better than humans. This prospect is both exciting and worrying.
Concern
AI and AGI have created concern among governments, corporations and public consultation groups worldwide, owing to the risks around the lack of transparency of AI systems; social manipulation through computer algorithms; job losses due to increased automation; surveillance; and data privacy and worse… the lack of human control!
Extinction event possible
Many industry leaders in technology have warned that AI could lead to an ‘extinction-level’ event where machines become so powerful they get out of control and wipe out humanity.
A new powerful AI is coming but the techies have no clue as to what it will look like
Several prominent technology leaders, including Elon Musk and Steve Wozniak for example, have called for a pause in AI development, stating that a moratorium would be beneficial in allowing society to catch up.
Turing test
AI chatbots like ChatGPT have passed the Turing test, a test called the ‘imitation game,’ which was developed by British computer scientist Alan Turing to determine whether someone is communicating with a machine and a human. The one big area where AI is lacking is common sense.
It has been reported on many occasions, that the tech world is taking steps to ensure that the AI race doesn’t lead to a ‘Hiroshima moment.‘
China, which consumes over half of the global coal demand and produces over 4 billion tonnes of coal per year.
India, which consumes about 14% of the global coal demand and produces over 900 million tonnes of coal per year.
The United States, which consumes about 9% of the global coal demand and produces over 600 million tonnes of coal per year.
Japan, which consumes about 3% of the global coal demand but imports most of its coal.
These countries accounted for about 82% of the global coal production in 2021 according to 2021 data set. China alone produced more than half of the world’s coal, followed by India with nearly 10%.
Global coal use in 2023 hits few high
Global coal use in 2023 has hit a record high, surpassing 8.5 billion tons for the first time, on the back of strong demand in countries like India and China, said IEA. These countries are the world’s largest consumers of the dirtiest fossil fuel, and continued modernization puts their energy consumption on a rapid growth trajectory.
China
China and India’s growing economies will continue to fuel demand for coal even as they set ambitious renewable energy targets, according to experts.
While China is the world’s largest energy consumer, India is ranked third globally, and both countries are the top consumers of coal as they strive to fuel economic growth.
Global coal usage in 2023hit a record high, surpassing 8.5 billion tons for the first time, on the back of strong demand in emerging and developing countries such as India and China, IEA noted in a recent report.
China’s electricity sector has been in the throes of a clean revolution over the past few years, with an almost five-fold growth in wind and solar generation since 2015. As a result, the share of coal generation has fallen by 17 percentage points, from 78% in 2000 to 61% in 2022.
China has suffered from drought in recent years, which reduced hydroelectric power generation in its southern provinces. To maintain the necessary power output, the country had to turn to coal.
United States
By contrast, U.S., which is the world’s second largest consumer of coal, has seen a decrease in its usage of the fuel. According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, the amount of coal that the superpower consumes each day recorded a 62% drop from 2.8 million to 1.1 million tons a day.
75% of India’s power is derived via coal-fired plants. Coal accounts for 61% of China’s power generation, even though the country is recognized as the indisputable leader in renewable energy expansion. It has been adding new projects to the grid almost as fast as the rest of the world combined in 2022 and has ambitions of becoming carbon neutral by 2060.
Annual average capacity additions by country and region, 2016-2023
India’s coal production rose to 893 million tons during the financial year ending March 2023, jumping nearly 15% from a year earlier. China’s raw coal production in 2023 went up by 2.9% compared with the same period in 2022.
There are no signs of a slowdown, with the IEA saying coal consumption in India and Southeast Asia is projected to grow significantly.
Coal won’t go!
But the lack of reliability of renewables means coal has still very much been a critical fallback option for the two countries.
Top five coal producing countries in the world
China: 4,126.0 million tonnes
India: 762.0 million tonnes
Indonesia: 614.0 million tonnes
United States: 523.8 million tonnes
Australia: 467.1 million tonnes
Five of the Greenest energy producers in the world
Sweden
Norway
Denmark
Finland
Switzerland
The greenest were based on these five criteria: carbon emissions, energy transition, green society, clean innovation, and climate policy.
Top countries by renewable energy production
China: 2,271.9 TWh (28.2% of total electricity)
United States: 804.8 TWh (20.5% of total electricity)
Brazil: 491.9 TWh (83.3% of total electricity)
Canada: 433.6 TWh (66.9% of total electricity)
India: 303.5 TWh (24.5% of total electricity)
Note: three of the world’s worst offenders of fossil fuel use are also in the top five for energy production by renewables – China, U.S. and India.
According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Elon Musk is the wealthiest person in the world, with an estimated net worth of $243.46 billion USD as of 8th Jan 2024.
Musk is the founder and CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, X and X.ai as well as the co-founder of PayPal and Neuralink. He made his fortune from various business ventures, starting from a web software company called Zip 2 that he sold in 1999 for around $307 million. He also inherited some wealth from his father, who owned an emerald mine in South Africa.
Think about this for a moment
It’s a little difficult to imagine such wealth so, maybe think of it like this… If you had been given $10,000 every day since the birth of Jesus Christ, 2024 years ago – you would have accumulated some $7.4 billion (without interest and leap years etc).
So, Mr Elon Musk has a net worth of around $243 billion and you would have $7.4 billion and that equates to only 3% of his current wealth.
Or, if you had been given $10,000 every day since the pyramids were built in Egypt around 4500 years ago – you would have accumulated $16.4 billion. That’s still only 6.75% of Elon Musk’s current wealth.
One last thought
A recent report conducted by Oxfam calculated that just 5 of the world’s richest men (including Musk) are worth $869 billion between them.
Your $16.4 billion accumulated over 4500 years would equate to less than 2% of that combined wealth.
Now that’s crazy!
Final thought
8 of the top 10 current billionaires made their money in…technology.
Please note:figures are estimated, but it perfectly demonstrates my point.
The world’s five richest men have increased their combined fortune from $405 billion in March 2020 to $869 billion in November 2023, according to a report from Oxfam.
Wealth increased at a rate of $14 million per hour for 5 people
A report by the charity highlighted the wealth of Tesla CEO Elon Musk, LVMH boss Bernard Arnault and family, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Oracle founder Larry Ellison, and investor Warren Buffett.
Oxfam is calling for restrictions on ‘corporate power’ to reduce the massive inequality between the super-rich and the rest of society. Two of the suggestions to correct the inequality is through capping CEO pay and introducing taxes on permanent wealth and excess profits.
This report was released to coincide with the Davos meeting as the rich and wealthy business leaders and bankers gather.
Oxfam says
Fortunes of five richest men have shot up by 114% since 2020.
Oxfam predicts the world could have its first-ever trillionaire in just a decade while it would take more than two centuries to end poverty.
A billionaire is running or the principal shareholder of 7 out of 10 of the world’s biggest corporations.
148 top corporations made $1.8 trillion in profits, 52% up on 3-year average, and dished out huge payouts to rich shareholders while hundreds of millions faced cuts in real-term pay.
Oxfam urges a new era of public action, including public services, corporate regulation, breaking up monopolies and enacting permanent wealth and excess profit taxes.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index set a new record in nearly 34 years last week, breaking the 35000 barrier for the first time since February 1990. Its all-time high of 38915 was hit in December 1989? That’s a 35 year old record!
Some analysts think that the long-term prospects for the Japanese markets look good.
The Nikkei 225 index is a benchmark of the Japanese stock market. It is composed of 225 large companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index has been fluctuating between 20000 and 30000 points for most of the past decade. It recovered from the lows of the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009.
According to some market strategists, the Nikkei 225 index could reach 40000 points in the next 12 months. Fundamentals are ‘pointing in the right direction’ and investor interest in Japan is increasing.
This would breach the Nikkei’s all-time high of 38915 reached in December 1989. However, others suggest the rally will struggle somewhere between 36000 and the all-time high. This suggest that much of the good news is already priced in.
I think I could probably have guessed that too. The Nikkei hasn’t reached the original high of 1989 for 35 years!
After years of regulatory rejection, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday 10th January 2024 finally approved the Bitcoin EFT.
It has approved what are known as ‘spot’ Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), which can be purchased by anyone from pension funds to retail investors. This now means that some of the biggest asset managers in the world, including BlackRock and Fidelity can trade a crypto related ETF.
Now, instead of using a crypto asset exchange such as Binance, Coinbase or Kraken to purchase and hold a token like Bitcoin, traders can now trade a ‘spot’ Bitcoin ETF for direct exposure to the digital asset market.
It may also mean that investors could pay lower fees than they would if they bought the digital currency from a crypto exchange directly.
Basically, it is now cheaper than ever to buy Bitcoin – but is this positive for the long-term?
Crypto fans can now invest in Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) – but what exactly are they?
A Bitcoin ETF allows investors to buy a product that tracks the price of Bitcoin through the same method they already use to buy stocks and other existing products. This also reduces additional worry of managing their crypto related holdings, which typically involves maintaining a cryptocurrency wallet and a safe storage system to safeguard that investment.
But what exactly is an ETF?
ETFs are holdings or portfolios that allow investors to ‘bet’ on multiple assets, without having to buy any themselves. Traded on stock exchanges like shares, their value depends on how the overall portfolio performs in real time.
An ETF could comprise a combination of gold and silver bullion, for example, or a mixture of shares in both big technology and energy companies. Some ETFs already contain Bitcoin indirectly – but a spot Bitcoin ETF will buy the cryptocurrency directly, ‘on the spot’, at its current live price, throughout the trading day.
Bitcoin, the first cryptocurrency
Based on an idea by someone called, Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin was the first cryptocurrency and remains the most valuable and famous to-date. Its price is often seen as a barometer for the whole industry of thousands of other coins (altcoins), tokens and products built on the same blockchain technology.
Art illustration of Bitcoin blockchain
And with an influx of new money, many expect a surge in interest in cryptocurrency technology in general.
How will the decision affect cryptocurrency adoption and is this decentralisation as originally intended?
Some say this decision shows the existing ‘old financial school’ establishment is finally taking Bitcoin seriously, at least as a speculative asset. For those who consider Bitcoin legitimate ‘digital gold’, what better proof could there be than the biggest wealth-management institutions flocking to buy, and now overseen by regulators?
Others say cryptocurrency is about rejecting traditional financial systems in favour of a decentralised, people-powered alternative. And investment bankers buying Bitcoin just to get rich on U.S. dollars is not what Satoshi Nakamoto had in mind.
But judging from the chatter on social media, the prevailing sentiment is expecting the new cash injection will make existing Bitcoin investors and owners rich.
What are the risks to future investors?
It is possible to lose all of your investment
The price of Bitcoin can change rapidly and often without warning or explanation – it is a volatile asset. So investors will need to be aware when investing in ETFs linked to a digital coin.
Art illustration of Bitcoin trading
But ETFs are often sold as high-risk, high-reward products anyway. It is EXTREMELY high risk – don’t do it if you don’t understand it and even if you do, or think you do – BE CAREFUL! These products can rip the shirt off your back!
Cyber-crime risk
Another potential risk is cyber-crime. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been the subject of huge and costly attacks that have seen crypto companies drained of sometimes hundreds of millions of dollars overnight. And if the likes of Blackrock become major holders of Bitcoin, their cyber-security will be tested in ways never before. Let’s hope their security systems are extremely robust.
Cost of mining coins
Another downside is the heavy cost to the environment is that Bitcoin use a massive number of powerful computers around the world, to process transactions on the blockchain ledger and to create coins – this is known as mining.
Renewable energy use is growing – but it remains to be seen how investment companies will tackle the environmental cost of Bitcoin.
Be careful
ETFs are here now – but BE CAREFUL when entering a Bitcoin related ETF trade or investment, or any type of ETF for that matter. If it goes wrong, you will lose your money, and quickly.
The Magnificent Seven is a term coined to describe the seven most valuable and popularly owned tech companies in the U.S. stock market.
It was also a 1960’s movie…
The Seven
Apple (AAPL)
The world’s largest software company, known for its iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, AirPods, and other devices, as well as its services such as iCloud, Apple Music, Apple TV+, and App Store.
Microsoft (MSFT)
The world’s largest software company, known for its Windows operating system, Azure cloud services, LinkedIn social media platform, Office professional software suite, and Xbox gaming brand.
Alphabet (GOOGL)
The parent company of Google, the world’s leading search engine, as well as other businesses such as YouTube, Google Cloud, Google Maps, Google Ads, and Waymo.
Amazon (AMZN)
The world’s largest online retailer, as well as a leading provider of cloud computing services through Amazon Web Services (AWS), and a major player in digital entertainment through Amazon Prime Video, Amazon Music, and Kindle.
Meta Platforms (META)
The former Facebook, the world’s largest social media network, as well as the owner of other popular platforms such as Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger, and Oculus.
Nvidia (NVDA)
The world’s leading manufacturer of graphics processing units (GPUs), which are used for gaming, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and cryptocurrency mining, as well as other products such as Nvidia Shield, GeForce Now, and Omniverse.
Tesla (TSLA)
The world’s most valuable automaker, known for its electric vehicles, battery products, solar panels, and self-driving technology, as well as its visionary founder and CEO, Elon Musk.
Market dominance
These seven companies are not only dominant in their respective fields, but also at the forefront of innovation and growth in the tech sector. They collectively make up some 30% of the S&P 500 index and more than half of the Nasdaq 100 index.
They have also delivered impressive returns for investors over the past five years, with Nvidia and Tesla leading the pack with more than 800% gains. The Magnificent Seven are often compared to the FAANG stocks, which include four of the seven companies, but exclude Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla, and include Netflix instead.
Some analysts suggest that the Magnificent Seven capture the current state and future potential of the tech industry. But is it now time to rotate out of tech into other areas that have been neglected. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the bull market charge on but with other ‘less’ loved companies leading the way.
It has been calculated that the combined market cap value of these seven companies is some $9 trillion.
According the High Pay Centre, a thinktank that campaigns for fairer pay, the average pay of FTSE 100 chief executives is 103 times the £33,000 average salary for full-time UK workers.
This means that by lunchtime on the third working day of 2024, a FTSE 100 company boss will have been paid more than a UK worker’s full annual salary.
So, this means that it takes approximately just three working days for a CEO to earn the FULL years pay of an average worker in the UK.
The study also shows that the pay gap between bosses and workers has increased since 2020, as executive pay has risen by 9.5% while worker pay has risen by only 6%.
Shocking inequality
This is a disturbing example of inequality in the UK workplace, which has been exacerbated by the cost-of-living crisis and the strike action by many low-paid workers.
Some economists have called for UK government to intervene and reduce the unfair pay gap, such as putting workers on company boards, taxing wealth more fairly, and working with employers and unions to create better living standards.
Wealth creators
There is a place for wealth creators but not for greedy wealth takers. We need businesses to be successful to maintain good levels of employment. But unnecessary wealth greed has no place in our modern society.
The metaverse is a hypothetical concept that has not yet been fully realized, but many experts and companies are working on developing it. Mark Zuckerberg is one of these ‘believers’.
Future challenge
The metaverse is quite likely to happen in the future, as technology advances and demand for immersive and interactive online experiences grows. Ai will help develop the metaverse at a greater speed.
However, there are also many challenges and uncertainties that could affect the development and adoption of the metaverse, such as interoperability, privacy, regulation, social issues, and user safety. Therefore, it is hard to predict when and how the metaverse will become a mainstream platform. Some estimates suggest that it could take another 10 to 15 years for the metaverse to reach its full potential.
What does Meta have to say about the Metaverse?
Meta and Mark Zuckerberg think that the metaverse is the next evolution of social technology and the successor to the mobile internet. They believe that the metaverse will enable people to feel present and connected with others in immersive and interactive digital spaces, where they can socialize, learn, work, play, and create. They also think that the metaverse will be a collaborative and open platform, where different companies and creators can build and interoperate with each other.
Product investment
Meta is investing heavily in developing the technologies and tools that will power the metaverse, such as virtual and augmented reality devices, software, and content.
Mark Zuckerberg has shared his vision and enthusiasm for the metaverse in various interviews and events, such as the Protocol interview, Connect 2021 keynote and the Lex Fridman podcast.
He has also demonstrated some of the impressive features and capabilities of the metaverse, such as photorealistic avatars, mixed reality experiences, and NFTs. He has said that he wants Meta to be a social technology company that helps bring the metaverse to life together with the community.
Time will tell if the Metaverse really is the future. So far it has failed to fully establish the following as Facebook enjoyed in its early days.
Mark Zuckerberg and Meta will not give up and will likely make his version of the Metaverse a success, one way or another.
‘Jimi, don’t forget to take the headset off if you go out again!’
Federal Reserve officials in December concluded that interest rate cuts are likely in 2024, though they appeared to provide little in the way of when that might occur, according to minutes from the meeting released Wednesday 3rd January 2024.
FOMC meeting minutes
The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) agreed to keep its rate steady in a range between 5.25% and 5.5%. Members indicated they expect 0.75% cut by the end of 2024.
Uncertainty
However, the meeting summary noted a high level of uncertainty over how, or even if, that will happen. Markets have reacted negatively to this news.
The minutes noted an unusually elevated degree of uncertainty about the policy path. Several members said it might be necessary to keep the funds rate at an elevated level if inflation doesn’t cooperate, and others noted the potential for additional increases.
But, despite this cautionary tone from Fed officials, markets expect the central bank to cut rates in 2024.
Dot plot
The dot plot of individual members’ indications released following the meeting showed that members expect cuts over the coming three years. This will bring borrow back to the 2% desired target.
The minutes indicated that clear progress had been made against inflation, with a six-month measure of personal consumption expenditures even indicating that the inflation rate has edged below the Fed’s 2% target.
FOMC Dot plot projections through 2026
However, the document also noted that progress has been uneven across sectors, with energy and core goods moving lower but core services still moving higher.
The Dot plot – what is it?
The dot plot, in relation to the FED or FOMC, is a chart that shows the projections of the Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents for the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate that U.S. banks charge each other for overnight loans.
The dot plot is updated four times a year, after each FOMC meeting, and reflects the individual views of the policymakers on the appropriate level of the federal funds rate for the current year, the next few years, and the longer run.
The graph (dot plot) can help markets and the general public understand the Fed’s monetary policy stance and expectations for the future path of interest rates.
However, the dot plot is not a policy commitment or a forecast, but rather a snapshot of the opinions of the FOMC participants at a given point in time. The dot plot can change over time as new information and economic conditions develop.
Wasted wind power will add £40 to the average UK household’s electricity bill in 2023, according to a think tank.
That figure could increase to £150 in 2026, Carbon Tracker has estimated.
When it is very windy, the grid cannot handle the extra power generated. So, wind farms are paid to switch off and gas-powered stations are paid to fire up. The cost is passed on to consumers.
The government said major reforms will halve the time it takes to build energy networks to cope with extra wind power. Energy regulator Ofgem announced new rules in November 2023, which it said would speed up grid connections.
Bottleneck
Most of the UK’s offshore wind farms are in England. Dogger Bank, off the coast of Yorkshire is the largest in the world. Meanwhile, around half of onshore wind farms are in Scotland but most electricity is used in south-east England.
Carbon Tracker said the main problem in getting electricity to where it is needed is a bottleneck in transmission.
Wind curtailment
The practice of switching off wind farms and ramping up power stations is known as wind curtailment. This cost is passed on to consumers, it said. Carbon Tracker researches the impact of climate change on financial markets. It said since the start of 2023, wind curtailment payments cost £590m, adding £40 to the average consumer bill.
It warned the costs were set to increase adding £180 per year to bills by 2030. Wind farms are being built faster than the power cabling needed to carry the electricity.
Cable issue
‘The problem is, there are not enough cables. The logical solution would be to build more grid infrastructure,‘ said an analyst at Carbon Tracker. ‘It’s not even that expensive,’ he added, compared with mounting wind curtailment costs.
Industry group RenewableUK reportedly said that grid constraints, ‘reflect a chronic lack of investment in the grid.’
‘We need to move from a grid which is wasteful, to one that’s fit for purpose as fast as possible.’
However, historically it has taken between 10 and 15 years for new transmission cables to be approved.
Maybe more battery storage plants around the UK would help reduce the bottlenecks? As renewable power continues to expand, this would enable the extra power to be stored to use later.
This would be better than firing up antiquated fossil fuel power plants.
Are you selling online and making a little extra income?
Well, if you are, as from 1st January 2024 you will now fall foul of UK tax rules if you do not declare the income generated from these sales.
Companies like Etsy, eBay, Vinted, Airbnb etc. are obliged to collect and share details of such transactions with the tax authorities. That will allow HMRC to zero in on anyone who should be declaring the extra income but isn’t.
While HMRC was already able to request information from UK-based online operators, from the start of this year there are new rules that the UK has signed up to in cooperation with the OECD – Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, as part of a global effort to clamp down on tax evasion.
New rules
The new rules require digital platforms to report the income sellers are getting through their site on a regular basis.
It will apply to sales of goods such as second-hand clothes and items that have been handcrafted, but also services such as: food delivery, taxi hire, freelance work and accommodation lets or even renting out your driveway for parking.
Rule summary
Online sellers already paying tax do not need to alter what they are already doing.
Individuals have a £1,000 tax-free allowance for money made through property.
There is also a £1,000 allowance for trading income – for example, if you offer tutoring or gardening, or if you are selling new or second-hand items online.
People earning below those thresholds may not have to fill in a tax return, but should keep records in case they are asked for them.
The information will be shared between countries that have signed up to the OECD tax rules.
The UK government said the new rules would help it ‘bear down on tax evasion’, as sellers on digital platforms would now be treated more like traditional businesses.
Bitcoin surged Monday and Tuesday 1st and 2nd January 2024, climbing above $45,000 to hit its highest level in nearly 21 months, as the rally in cryptocurrencies continues. Other cryptocurrencies have joined in the rally, with Ether and Solana both rising.
Traders are anticipating the potential approval of a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S., as well as the upcoming Bitcoin ‘halving’ due to happen in May 2024.
U.S. news organisation the New York Times is suing ChatGPT-owner OpenAI over claims its copyright was infringed to train the system.
The New York Times has filed a lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft for using its news stories to train chatbots without permission or compensation. The lawsuit claims that the defendants have infringed on the paper’s intellectual property rights and seek to ‘free-ride’ on its investment in journalism.
The lawsuit also alleges that the chatbots pose a threat to the jobs of journalists and the quality of news reporting. The New York Times is seeking damages and an injunction to stop the defendants from using its content. The lawsuit, which also names Microsoft as a defendant, says the firms should be held responsible for ‘billions of dollars’ in damages.
Permission
ChatGPT and other large language models (LLMs) ‘learn’ by analysing a massive amount of data often sourced online. The lawsuit claims ‘millions’ of articles published by the New York Times were used without its permission to make ChatGPT smarter, and claims the tool is now competing with the newspaper as a trustworthy information source.
It alleges that when asked about current events, ChatGPT will sometimes generate excerpts ‘verbatim’ from New York Times articles, which cannot be accessed without paying for a subscription.
Subscription
According to the lawsuit, this means readers can get New York Times content without paying for it – meaning it is losing out on subscription revenue as well as advertising clicks from people visiting the website.
It also gave the example of the Bing search engine – which has some features powered by ChatGPT – producing results taken from a New York Times-owned website, without linking to the article or including referral links it uses to generate income.
Tesla recalled more than two million cars in December 2023 after the U.S. regulator found its driver assistance system, Autopilot, was partly defective, it was reported.
It follows a two-year investigation into crashes which occurred when the tech was in use. The recall applies to almost every Tesla sold in the U.S. since the Autopilot feature was launched in 2015.
The update happens automatically and does not require a visit to a dealership or garage but is still referred to by the U.S. regulator as a recall.
The UK Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency reportedly said it was not aware of any safety issues involving Teslas in the UK, noting that cars sold in the UK are not equipped with all of the same features as cars in the U.S.
Chinese company, Build Your Dreams (BYD), has moved another step closer to over-taking Tesla as the world’s biggest-selling manufacturer of electric vehicles.
The firm said on Monday it had sold a record 526,000 battery-only vehicles in the last three months of 2023, aided by more than a 70% surge in sales in December 2023.
Tesla is scheduled to release its latest quarterly vehicle production and delivery figures before Wall Street opens on Tuesday.
For the year, BYD said it had sold more than 3 million new energy vehicles (NEVs), which includes battery-only vehicles and hybrids. Almost 1.6 million of its total sales were battery-only vehicles, the firm said.
Industry analysts have forecast that Tesla sold around 483,000 electric vehicles in the last three months of 2023 and 1.82 million for the year as a whole.
This was the famous UK advertising slogan of a once famous and proud Japanese business that later fell from grace. It became a 1980’s advertising hit for Toshiba in the UK.
There was a time when more than one of your TV’s, computers, laptop’s, Hi-Fi’s, speaker systems or other essential electronic goods would have been made by Toshiba.
Once an untouchable powerful conglomerate for Japan’s dominance in electronics – known as Japan Inc – the company for forced to delist, ending a 74-year history with Tokyo’s stock exchange.
So why did one of Japan’s most famous industrial names have such a spectacular fall from grace?
It all started in 2015 when accounting malpractices came to light, with many of them involving top management. For seven years, Toshiba had overstated its profits.
In 2020, Toshiba found further accounting irregularities
There were also allegations related to corporate governance. An investigation launched in 2021 found that Toshiba had colluded with Japan’s trade ministry – which saw Toshiba as a strategic asset – to suppress the interests of foreign investors.
At the time, analysts said this made foreign investors uncertain about investing in Japanese stocks, making it not just a Toshiba problem, but an issue for Japan’s entire stock market.
In late 2016, Toshiba said it would take charge of several billion dollars related to the construction of a nuclear power plant that U.S. unit Westinghouse Electric had bought a year earlier. Just months later, Westinghouse filed for bankruptcy leaving Toshiba facing a collapse of its nuclear business and more than $6bn in liabilities.
Sell-off
Toshiba sold off businesses including medical systems, mobile phones, and white goods try to thwart these difficulties. But it was later forced to place its flag ship chip unit, Toshiba Memory, up for sale – a deal that was delayed for a number of months over a dispute with one of its partners.
At a time when companies were investing heavily in the future of technology and innovation, Toshiba was having to sell off a prized asset to raise cash – a resentful place to be.
Cash injection
Toshiba managed to secure a $5.4bn cash injection at the end of 2017 from overseas investors, helping it avoid a forced delisting. But that meant shareholders had more of a say in the about the company.
That lead to protracted battles that paralysed the maker of batteries, chips and nuclear and defence equipment. After a great deal of debate over whether the company should split up into smaller companies, Toshiba set up a committee to explore whether it should be taken private.
In June 2022, Toshiba received eight buyout offers
Earlier in 2023, the company announced it would be taken over by a group of Japanese investors led by state-backed Japan Investment Corp (JIC) for $14bn. It’s not clear yet what the new owners plan for Toshiba – maybe AI products will come to the rescue?
Japan Investment Corp
JIP does reportedly have a positive track record in making businesses from big manufacturers including Sony’s laptop division and Olympus’s camera unit. After acquiring Sony’s Vaio laptop business in 2014, it helped the company achieve record sales last year.
But Toshiba is a much bigger company, it employs around 106,000 people and some of its operations are seen as critical to national security.
It has now de-listed and hopefully will find a way to re-gain back to its former glory.
The original extremely memorable and successful Toshiba advertising campaign from the 1980’s
The original extremely memorable and successful Toshiba advertising campaign from the 1980’s
The UK Supreme Court has upheld earlier decisions to reject a bid to allow an artificial intelligence to be named as an inventor in a patent application.
Dr Stephen Thaler (an ‘inventor’), had sought to have his AI, called Dabus, recognised as the inventor of a food container and a flashing light beacon. But in 2019, the Intellectual Property Office (IPO) rejected this, saying only a person could be named as an inventor. The decision was then backed by both the High Court and Court of Appeal. The IPO argued, and courts have supported the view, that only ‘persons’ can have patent rights, not Artificial Intelligence.
Now five Supreme Court judges have dismissed a bid to reverse those decisions, concluding that ‘an inventor must be a person’, and that an AI cannot be named as an inventor to secure patent rights.
The judgement does not deal with the issue of whether Dabus did in fact invent the food container and light.
This issue will likely be debated for some time yet – maybe an AI court of the future could decide?
Social media platform X suffered global outages for just over an hour on Thursday 21st December 2023.
According to Downdetector, which tracks outages by collating status reports, more than 47,000 U.S. users encountered issues with X and X Pro.
Some users in the UK were also unable to view posts on the site with the message ‘Welcome to X!’ X, (formerly Twitter), is owned by Elon Musk which he bought for $44 billion (£35 billion) in 2022.
The hashtag #TwitterDown started trending within minutes of reports of the outages emerging. But the outage was short-lived, with users able to access the platform again after just over an hour. Since Mr Musk bought the platform, it has been experiencing a loss of advertising revenue.
He has also been accused of allowing antisemitic posts next to advertising. X sued a left-leaning pressure group, Media Matters for America, which made the accusation.
Last month, Elon Musk slammed advertisers that left X, saying they would kill the social media platform.
Unfortunately, X has been attracting the wrong kind of attention in recent months – the question is, can it weather the storm?
The 10-year Treasury yield slipped further on Monday 18th December 2023, as the final full trading week of 2023 gets underway.
Traders are attempting to digest the ‘dovish’ tone of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The central bank held its key interest rate at 5.5% and revealed that policymakers were pencilling in at least three rate cuts in 2024 marking a more aggressive series of cuts than what was previously expected.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was marginally lower at 3.913%. Last Thursday, the yield fell below the 4% level, hitting its lowest since July this year.
Bank strategists described the Fed’s move as a ‘big shift’
Guessing game starts
The question now is when will these rate cuts happen, and on Friday we had some mild pushback from Fed officials against the market excitement.
In 1993, amidst the hustle and bustle of family life and work commitments, I distinctly recall contemplating that should I have any disposable income, I would invest it in these particular stocks.
I worked in tech running my own business and Microsoft was one of the businesses I wondered about, Apple was another and later Amazon too.
I never bought them, but had I have done, this is what would have happened.
Microsoft
Microsoft in 1993 was trading at around $2.35 per share. Today the company’s share price is trading at around $374.00 per share. So, had I bought $1,000 (adjusting for splits and dividends), my $1000 would be worth about $160,000 now. Had I bought $10,000 – I would have made just over $1 million.
Amazon
Had I bought Amazon a little later in 1997 and held it, a $1000 investment would now be worth a staggering $1.7 million (adjusting for splits and dividends). After the IPO and subsequent stock splits Amazon shares were trading at just 7 cents each according to Amazon’s website.
Apple
And as for Apple – a stock purchase in 1993 of $1000 would now be worth approximately $900,000 (not allowing for stock splits and dividends). Apple was trading at 22 cents per share in 1993.
The question is, if I had made the stock purchases – would I still be holding them long-term?
Deflation is an economic phenomenon characterized by a general decline in prices for goods and services. It occurs when the inflation rate falls below 0%, resulting in a negative inflation rate.
This means that the purchasing power of currency increases over time, allowing you to buy more with the same amount of money. It can be as damaging to the economy as inflation.
Consumer and Asset Prices: During deflation, both consumer and asset prices decrease, which might seem like a good thing because it increases the purchasing power.
Economic Impact: However, deflation can be harmful to the economy. It often signals an impending recession or hard economic times. If people expect prices to fall further, they may delay purchases, hoping to buy later at a lower price. This leads to reduced spending, which can cause producers to earn less, potentially leading to unemployment and higher interest rates.
Measurement: Deflation is measured using economic indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the prices of commonly purchased goods and services. When the CPI shows that prices are lower than in a previous period, the economy is experiencing deflation.
Causes: The main causes of deflation include a decrease in demand or an increase in supply. A decline in aggregate demand can lead to lower prices if supply remains unchanged. Conversely, an increase in supply can also cause prices to drop if demand does not increase accordingly.
It’s important to note that deflation is different from disinflation. Disinflation refers to a slowdown in the rate of inflation, where prices are still rising but at a slower pace than before.
Deflation can have complex effects on an economy, and while it may benefit consumers in the short term, it can lead to broader economic challenges.
Deflation, friend or foe?
Deflation, often perceived as a relief during times of high prices, is a complex economic condition that presents both benefits and challenges. It is defined by a general decrease in the price level of goods and services, leading to an increase in the real value of money. This means consumers can buy more for less, but this apparent advantage masks the potential dangers lurking beneath the surface.
The immediate effect of deflation is an increase in consumer purchasing power. As prices drop, money buys more, which can be particularly beneficial for individuals on fixed incomes. However, this boon is short-lived if deflation persists. Consumers, anticipating further price drops, may postpone purchases, leading to a decrease in consumer spending, the lifeblood of any economy. This reduction in demand can force businesses to lower prices further, creating a vicious cycle that’s hard to break.
Deflation can lead to a reduction in demand and can force businesses to lower prices, creating a vicious cycle that’s difficult to break.
Moreover, deflation can exacerbate debt burdens. As prices and revenues fall, the real value of debt increases, making it more challenging for borrowers to repay their obligations. This can lead to increased loan defaults and financial instability. For businesses, falling prices mean reduced profit margins, leading to cost-cutting measures such as layoffs, reduced investment, and even bankruptcy.
Causes
The causes of deflation are multifaceted, often stemming from a decrease in aggregate demand or an oversupply of goods. Technological advancements, while boosting productivity, can also contribute to deflation by lowering production costs and increasing supply faster than demand. Additionally, a strong currency can make imports cheaper, contributing to lower prices domestically.
Tools
Central banks and governments typically combat deflation with monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stimulating demand. Lowering interest rates, increasing government spending, and quantitative easing are common strategies employed to inject money into the economy and encourage spending.
While deflation can initially seem like a welcome development, its long-term effects can be detrimental to economic health. It is a delicate balance that policymakers must navigate carefully to ensure stability and growth in the economy.
During this period of inflationary pressure, no country is beyond the grasp of deflation.
A message for governments and central banks around the world – don’t push too hard!
