Category: Observation

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Bank of Japan ends negative rates: a seismic shift in monetary policy

The flag of Japan

In a move that reverberated across global financial markets, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) recently bid farewell to its negative interest rate policy – the last of its kind in the world. This decision marks a pivotal moment in the realm of central banking and has far-reaching implications for economies and investors worldwide.

The Negative Interest Rate Saga

To understand the significance of this shift, let’s rewind the clock. Japan, grappling with deflation for years, embarked on an ambitious economic experiment known as ‘Abenomics’ in 2013. The strategy combined massive government spending with unconventional monetary measures. The BOJ, under the leadership of then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, injected liquidity into the system by purchasing bonds and other assets. The goal? Achieve a 2% inflation target and kickstart growth.

Among these measures was the adoption of negative interest rates. The idea was simple: discourage banks from hoarding excess reserves and encourage lending. However, the path to higher inflation proved elusive, and the BOJ found itself navigating uncharted waters.

The Change

Fast forward to 2024. Japan’s economy has experienced a moderate recovery, prompting policymakers to reassess their strategic options. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has elevated its short-term interest rate from minus 0.1% to a range between zero and 0.1%. This adjustment marks the first increase in rates since 2007, representing a significant, even a ‘seismic’ policy shift.

The Effect

  1. Policy Pivot: The BOJ acknowledges that negative rates have played their part. With improving wages and corporate profits, the time is ripe for a change. The new rate range signals a departure from the era of ultra-accommodative policies.
  2. Global Implications: Japan now stands as the last central bank to exit negative rates. For years, central bankers worldwide wielded cheap money and unconventional tools. Now, the tide turns. The era of negative rates draws to a close, and other central banks take note.
  3. Market Response: Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index responded positively, gaining 0.7%. The Japanese yen weakened against the dollar. Investors recalibrate their strategies, adjusting to a world where negative rates are no longer the norm. The Nikkei is sitting close to or at its all-time high!

Nikkei 225 3 month chart at: 40003 – close to its recent new all-time high of 40109

Nikkei 225 3 month chart at: 40003 – close to its recent new all-time high of 40109

The future?

As the BOJ takes its first step toward policy normalization, questions abound. Will further rate adjustments follow? How will markets adapt? And what does this mean for global liquidity?

One thing is certain: The decision of the Bank of Japan resonates beyond the confines of the nation. It heralds the beginning of a new era in which central banks adjust their strategies, economies establish stability, and investors once more chart a course through unfamiliar territory.

Within the chronicles of monetary history, the cessation of negative rates at the Bank of Japan will be marked as a pivotal moment. As the final details of this policy transition are solidified, the global community observes, prepared for the forthcoming developments.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article do not constitute financial advice. Readers are encouraged to consult professional advisors before making any investment decisions.

Remember to always do your own research

RESEARCH! RESEARCH! RESEARCH!

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Why is Byju’s, India’s most valuable start-up once valued at $22 billion, fighting for survival?

Online teaching

In 2018, Byju Raveendran’s edtech company, Byju’s, was the darling of India’s start-up scene.

It was valued at a staggering $22 billion. However, recent times have seen its fortunes take a dramatic downturn.

Financial Crisis and Valuation Plunge

Once India’s leading privately-held company, Byju’s is now regarded as a cautionary tale. Investment company BlackRock recently slashed its valuation to a mere $1 billion.

The company faced mounting debt, unhappy investors, and lawsuits by lenders. Its valuation plummeted.

Leadership Turmoil

In February, many shareholders voted to remove Byju Raveendran as CEO during an extraordinary general meeting (EGM). Reportedly, allegations of ‘management failures’ led to this decision.

Raveendran and his family dispute the allegations, challenging the vote’s validity in court. The High Court temporarily halted the implementation of the resolutions passed in the EGM.

Legal and Financial Crises

Byju’s has been struggling with a growing number of legal and financial challenges. These include: investigations by India’s financial crimes agency, layoffs, delayed salaries, and a liquidity crisis.

Customers have reportedly accused the company of pressure selling, coercing parents into buying courses they couldn’t afford.

Missed Financial Deadlines

In January, Byju’s reported a consolidated loss of around 82 billion rupees ($1 billion) for 2022. The company is yet to present its audited accounts for 2023.

The company’s struggle to pay salaries due to a lack of funds has further exacerbated its woes.

Global Expansion and Acquisitions

Byju’s expanded globally, acquiring other edtech start-ups and firms. However, these ambitious moves came at a cost.

Initially focused on online tutoring for schoolchildren and competitive exam preparation in India, Byju’s later introduced learning apps in various Indian languages.

Rights Issue and Cash Crunch

The current standoff between Byju’s and its investors revolves around a rights issue. Byju’s proposed raising up to $200 million through this issue, inviting existing shareholders to purchase additional new shares in the company.

The pandemic darling became infected

Through the pandemic, as schools were forced to close, the business kept growing and expanding – until it all started to unravel.

It used to be India’s top private firm with a $22bn (£17.38bn) valuation, but now some see it as a warning for local start-ups, after investment firm BlackRock cut its worth to $1bn.

Byju’s, once a rising star, now faces a massive task and fight back to regain its former glory.

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More than 20% of UK adults not seeking work

Not working

More than a fifth of working-age adults in the UK are currently not actively seeking employment, according to recent figures.

The economic inactivity rate during the period from November 2023 to January 2024 stood at 21.8%, a slight increase compared to the previous year. This means that approximately 9.2 million people aged between 16 and 64 are neither employed nor actively searching for jobs. The total figure has risen by over 700,000 since before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.

Several factors contribute to this problem

Long-Term Illness: Approximately one-third of the working-age population not participating in the labour force cite long-term illness as the primary reason for their inactivity. Health-related issues have kept a significant portion of the population away from work.

The pandemic: of 2020 caused work flight. 700,000 extra out of the workplace since the coronavirus pandemic Covid 19 hit the UK in 2020.

Students and Education: Students pursuing education are often classified as economically inactive. Their focus on studies and lack of job-seeking activity contribute to this category.

Care Responsibilities: Individuals who care for family members or manage household responsibilities fall into this bracket. Caring duties can be time-consuming and prevent active job hunting.

People with Disabilities: Those with disabilities may face barriers in accessing employment opportunities. Accommodations and inclusive policies are essential to address this issue.

Early Retirement: Some adults choose early retirement, and once retired, they rarely express a desire to return to work. This group contributes significantly to the inactive population.

Discouraged Workers: Individuals who have given up on job searches due to discouragement or lack of suitable opportunities are also part of this category.

Gender Gap: Historically, more women have been classified as economically inactive compared to men. However, this gap has narrowed over the years as more women have entered the workforce.

Age Trends: Recent data indicates that while the number of economically inactive individuals due to illness has decreased, there has been an increase among those aged 16 to 34. Mental health issues are believed to be a contributing factor in this age group.

Persistently high level

The persistently high level of economic inactivity poses challenges for the UK economy. As the country emerges from the pandemic, addressing workforce shortages becomes crucial. Measures such as reducing National Insurance Contributions and extending free childcare services aim to encourage people to seek employment or increase their working hours. 

More effort is needed to further incentivise workforce participation, if not, the UK economy will suffer for many more years than would otherwise be necessary.

Office for national statistics

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AI will be smarter than entire humanity by 2029 according to Elon Musk

Artificial intelligence

Elon Musk sparked intense debate on the trajectory of artificial intelligence (AI) after he shared a clip from the Joe Rogan Experience podcast via his X account. 

In the video, futurist Raymond Kurzweil explored the future of artificial intelligence (AI), proposing that it might soon outstrip human intellect.

Elon Musk, noted for his candid opinions on AI, echoed Kurzweil’s forecast by stating, ‘AI will likely be more intelligent than any individual human by next year.’ Furthermore, he speculated that by 2029, AI could surpass the combined intelligence of all humanity.

Screen capture of Elon Musk’s post on X

Artificial General Intelligence

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), capable of outperforming human intelligence, has recently drawn widespread attention from technology leaders worldwide, especially with the advent of sophisticated AI systems such as ChatGPT, Bing AI, and Gemini. Despite its increasing prominence, a unified definition of AGI remains elusive. Typically, AGI is understood to be a phase in AI evolution where the system can undertake any human task, potentially excelling beyond human expertise in certain domains.”

In the realm of technology leadership, a broad range of views exists on the feasibility and consequences of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). While some leaders speculate about the timeline for AGI’s realization, others doubt its eventual occurrence. Opinions also differ on whether AGI will lead to beneficial progress or present risks to human society. Comprehending the varied stances of tech leaders sheds light on the active debate regarding AGI and its prospective influence on society.

Musk’s choice to disseminate the podcast excerpt has intensified the discourse on AI advancement’s ramifications. His use of his platform to broadcast Kurzweil’s insights has sparked additional discussion and contemplation about artificial intelligence’s revolutionary capabilities.

His tweet has ignited wider conversations concerning the swift advancement of technology and its significant consequences for the future of humanity.

Raymond Kurzweil

Raymond Kurzweil, born 1948, is an American computer scientist, author, inventor, and futurist renowned for his contributions to various fields, including optical character recognition (OCR), text-to-speech synthesis, speech recognition technology, and electronic keyboard instruments.

Through his comprehensive body of work, Kurzweil has researched a variety of subjects including health, artificial intelligence (AI), transhumanism, the technological singularity, and futurism.

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Gold futures rise above $2125 to highest level ever

Gold at record high

Gold futures for April settled at $2126 per ounce, the highest-level going back to the *contract’s creation in 1974.

Analysts suggest that, adjusting for inflation, gold set an all-time high of approximately $3200 in 1980 and bodes well for big gold increases to come in the future.

Why is gold going up?

The outlook for interest rates. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in 2024 to further stimulate the economy as the inflation fight comes to an end. Lower interest rates make gold more attractive as an alternative asset that does not pay any income.

The geopolitical and economic uncertainty. The U.S.-China trade and political tensions, the conflicts in the Middle East, the Russia/Ukraine war, other conflicts around the world and the upcoming U.S. presidential election are all sources of risk and volatility for the global markets. Investors seek gold as a safe haven asset that can preserve wealth and hedge against inflation.

The supply and demand dynamics. The demand for gold has been rising from central banks, investors, and consumers, especially in China and India, the world’s largest gold consumers. The supply of gold, on the other hand, has been constrained by the pandemic-related disruptions, environmental regulations, and declining ore grades.

Gold price as at 08:20 GMT 5th March 2024 in U.S. dollars per ounce

Gold price per ounce as at 08:20 GMT 5th March 2024 in U.S. dollars

The above are some of the reasons why the price of gold is climbing to touch an all-time high. However, the future performance of gold may depend on how the economic and political situation evolves, as well as the market sentiment and expectations.

Gold is a complex and dynamic asset that can be influenced by many factors, both fundamental and psychological.

*Gold contract creation 1974

The gold futures contract for April 1974 was the first gold contract to be traded on the U.S. futures market, and it settled at $126.30 per ounce on its first day of trading. The contract was created after the U.S. ended the gold standard in 1971 and allowed the price of gold to fluctuate according to markets.

Remember: always do your research!

RESEARCH! REASEARCH! RESEARCH!

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Is it acceptable to use the North Sea as a dumping ground for carbon waste?

Carbon waste

Norway has a long history of carbon management. For nearly 30 years, it has captured and reinjected carbon from gas production into seabed formations on the Norwegian continental shelf.

Norway’s government wants to show the world it is possible to safely inject and store carbon waste under the seabed, saying the North Sea could soon become a ‘central storage camp’ for polluting industries across Europe.

Norway’s carbon management projects (Sleipner and Snøhvit) have been in operation since 1996 and 2008, respectively, and are often held up as proof of the technology’s viability. These facilities separate carbon from their respective produced gas, then compress and pipe the carbon and reinject it underground.

Carbon capture storage – nothing new

Offshore carbon capture and storage (CCS) refers to a range of technologies that seek to capture carbon from high-emitting activities, transport it to a storage site and ‘lock’ it away indefinitely under the seabed.

Norway is currently a leading pioneer in carbon capture and storage (CCS), a technology that aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by trapping carbon dioxide from industrial sources and injecting it into underground reservoirs. Norway has been operating CCS projects in the North Sea since 1996, using depleted oil and gas fields as storage sites.

Norway’s ambitious plan to expand CCS is called Project Longship, which involves building a full-scale CCS value system that can serve as a model for other countries and industries. The project consists of two parts: a capture facility in Brevik that will process emissions from a cement factory, and a transport and storage system that will ship the captured CO2 by ship to an offshore terminal and inject it into a permanent storage location in the North Sea. 

Project Longship is expected to be completed by 2024, with a reported capacity to store 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year. The project has a total cost of 1.7 billion euros, of which the Norwegian government will cover 80%. The project is also supported by the European Union, which sees CCS as a key climate solution. 

Norway’s current Energy minister (2004) reportedly said that the project will prove to the world that CCS is possible and necessary to meet the Paris Agreement goals. He also said that the North Sea could become a ‘central storage camp’ for CO2 from other countries and industries, as it has the potential to store up to 1.25 billion tonnes of CO2. That’s a real concern to me.

Long-term safety concerns

However, not everyone is convinced by Norway’s CCS vision. Some critics have raised concerns about the long-term safety and environmental impacts of storing CO2 under the seabed, as well as the ethical and moral implications of using the North Sea as a dumping site for carbon waste.

Norway’s CCS project is a controversial and complex undertaking that will test the feasibility and acceptability of this technology.

Whether it will succeed or fail remains to be seen, but it will certainly have a significant impact on the future of climate action.

Is it safe or wise to pump waste into and hide it under the sea? Humankind doesn’t have a very good track record when it comes to clearing up after itself, does it? Go look at the rubbish in space!

Is it safe or wise to pump waste into and hide it under the sea? Humankind doesn’t have a very good track record when it comes to clearing up after itself, does it? Go look at the rubbish in space!

Only time will tell?

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Is AI driving a market bubble or is there so much more yet to come?

Tech bubble

As tech giant Nvidia soars on hype around artificial intelligence (AI), and as global stock indexes claim record highs, debate has grown about whether the stock market has entered a ‘bubble.’

An AI bubble of boom

We are reminded of the dotcom bubble where investment was rife in anything tech – so, are we now potentially facing a new tech bubble – an AI bubble of boom?

That’s generally seen as a period in which asset prices inflate rapidly, potentially beyond their core value; and risk crashing just as fast.

Other AI stocks are chasing the dream too adding to the hype. However, some are in the slow lane playing catch-up and this may suggest there is much, much more to come.

The likes of AMD, Intel, Amazon, OpenAI, Arm and a myriad of other tech companies big and small have much more AI to bring to the tech table.

Let’s use Nvidia as an example of a potential stock bubble

If we look at the valuation of Nvidia, justifiably it is actually very high, too high even – that’s the first sign of a potential problem, valuation. The second issue is investor positioning – whenever you have a market bubble, investors are very clustered or very concentrated, either in one market or in one sector as a whole.

Nvidia one year chart as of 29th February 2024. Price 791

Nvidia one year chart as of 29th February 2024. Price 791

Sectors

It doesn’t matter which markets you look at – the U.S., Europe or Asia markets – the problem is the same. We now have an historic valuation between the tech sector, the AI sub-sector of the tech sector, and the rest of the market.

Investors are very clustered in this tech sector. However, some leading commentators say of tech that this is not hype – this is real. It most probably is, for now, and with much more to come from the smaller tech and AI companies that have yet to show their true AI value. But all bubbles burst in the end.

Pop!

There is certainly plenty of room for AI to grow – it’s in its infancy – but the question is: ‘how and when will the bubble burst? Because, in my humble opinion, it most certainly will.

We may not see a dramatic market crash like 1999-2000 or 2007/2008, but an investor rotation out of areas of concentration into the broader market will likely happen.

If you look at the bubbles of 1999-2000, and then in 2007/2008, one key characteristic was investor leverage. And we had, whether it was retail investors or institutional investors, a very high level of leverage, and that was either through borrowings or it was through derivatives.

The AI tech boom has legs but there will almost inevitably be a rotation from AI to other sectors – that will then adjust the overvalued AI sector. And it could pullback quite hard.

Be ready!

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Water scarcity and its impact on semiconductor production

Water scarcity

Water scarcity is a pressing global issue and has far-reaching consequences across various industries. One sector significantly affected is semiconductor manufacturing.

How does water scarcity pose a threat to the production of essential microchips.

Water in Semiconductor Manufacturing

Ultra-pure water is a critical resource in semiconductor fabrication plants (fabs). It is used for cleaning, cooling, and various processing steps during chip production.

Microchips power our devices—computers, smartphones, sensors, and LEDs—all of which rely on water-intensive manufacturing processes.

Global Water Scarcity

Freshwater availability is unevenly distributed worldwide. While oceans contain 97% of water (mostly saline), accessible freshwater constitutes only a small fraction.

Approximately four billion people experience severe water scarcity for at least one month annually, and half a billion face it year-round.

Taiwan’s Drought and Chip Production

Taiwan, a semiconductor manufacturing hub, faces a severe drought. Over 20% of global microchips are produced there.

Water shortages threaten supply chains, potentially impacting chip production.

Cost and Sustainability

Creating fully self-sufficient local supply chains would cost $1 trillion. Such self-reliance could increase semiconductor costs by up to 65%.

Urgent action is needed to ensure sustainable water management in fabs, as chips control everything from cars to appliances.

In conclusion, water scarcity poses a real danger to semiconductor production. Addressing this challenge requires strategic planning, conservation efforts, and global cooperation.

AI a problem or a solution?

Will the problem of water scarcity exacerbate the uneven distribution of water around the world as the rich have easier access to the precious resource.

Will the explosion of AI tech push the imbalance – water is a basic necessity to maintain human life. Will AI have a hand in controlling the distribution of water – even for its own needs?

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Google’s woke AI needs fixing!

Chatbot learning

Google’s ‘Woke’ AI Problem needs attention

In recent days, Google’s artificial intelligence (AI) tool, Gemini, has faced intense criticism online. As the tech giant’s answer to the OpenAI/Microsoft chatbot ChatGPT, Gemini can respond to text queries and even generate images based on prompts. However, its journey has been far from smooth.

The AI answer is wrong

The issues began when Gemini’s image generator inaccurately portrayed historical figures. For instance, it depicted the U.S. Founding Fathers with a black man, and German World War II soldiers included both a black man and an Asian woman.

AI answer from Google’s Gemini Chatbot

Google swiftly apologized and paused the tool, acknowledging that it had “missed the mark.”

It gets worse

But the controversy didn’t end there. Gemini’s text responses veered into over-political correctness. When asked whether Elon Musk posting memes was worse than Hitler’s atrocities, it replied that there was “no right or wrong answer.” In another instance, it refused to misgender high-profile trans woman Caitlin Jenner, even if it meant preventing nuclear apocalypse. Elon Musk himself found these responses “extremely alarming.”

Nuance

The root cause lies in the vast amounts of data AI tools are trained on. Publicly available internet data contains biases, leading to embarrassing mistakes. Google attempted to counter this by instructing Gemini not to make assumptions, but it backfired. Human history and culture are nuanced, and machines struggle to grasp these complexities.

Political bias

Google now faces the challenge of striking a balance: addressing bias without becoming absurdly politically correct. As Gemini evolves, finding this equilibrium will be crucial for its survival.

After all, it’s not just about AI, is it? It’s about navigating the delicate intersection of technology, culture, and ethics.

Definition of nuance – I asked ChatGPT for its definition…

Nuance refers to the subtle, intricate, or delicate aspects of something. It encompasses the fine distinctions, shades of meaning, and context-specific interpretations that add depth and complexity to a situation, conversation, or piece of art. In essence, nuance recognizes that not everything can be neatly categorized or expressed in black-and-white terms; rather, it acknowledges the richness and variability of human experiences and ideas. Whether in literature, politics, or everyday interactions, appreciating nuance allows us to navigate the complexities of life with greater understanding and empathy.

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Apple reportedly cancels EV project it never admitted doing

EV concept

Apple has reportedly cancelled its plans to build an electric car, bringing an end to a secretive project known as Project Titan

The EV project consumed immense resources over the past 10 years, with executives from the company making an unexpected announcement. The decision to halt the program marks a significant retreat from Apple’s previous strategy.

Apple has never publicly acknowledged the project, which was rumoured to involve some two thousand people.

Key points:

  • Project Titan: Under the codename Project Titan, Apple aimed to develop an electric, semi-autonomous vehicle. The company reportedly spent billions on this initiative, hiring executives from renowned car companies and acquiring autonomous vehicle startups.
  • Setbacks and Delays: The attempts to bring an Apple EV to market faced numerous setbacks, including layoffs, executive departures, and shifting ambitions. 
  • Shift to Generative AI: Many employees who worked on the electric car project will now transition to working on generative artificial intelligence (AI) projects. Apple’s focus will shift toward AI research and development.
  • Tesla Comparison: Initially, Apple reportedly considered developing an entirely self-driving car with no steering wheel. However, the company later decided to focus on a vehicle with some self-driving capabilities, akin to Tesla’s EVs.

Apple now aims to deliver generative AI features to consumers within the year

While the electric car dream may have faded, Apple’s focus on cutting-edge technology continues as it shifts towards AI innovation.

But how much more innovation and profit is there left to squeeze from the iPhone?

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Intuitive Machines lands on the moon 22nd February 2024 in historic first for a U.S. company

First U.S. landing on the moon since 1972

A U.S. company has gone to the moon – and creates a little piece of history

Intuitive Machines’ Nova-C cargo lander, named ‘Odysseus’ after the mythological Greek hero, is the first U.S. spacecraft to soft land on the lunar surface since 1972.

Japan, India and China have all had recent successful moon mission ahead of the U.S.

Intuitive Machines is the first company to pull off a moon landing – government agencies have carried out all previously successful missions.

The company’s stock surged in extended trading Thursday, after falling 11% in regular trading.

Lander visual

Hunt for water

The targeted landing site was a cratered terrain next to a 5km-high mountain complex known as Malapert. It’s the southernmost point on the Moon ever visited by a spacecraft.

It’s on the shortlist of locations where Nasa is considering sending astronauts later this decade as part of its Artemis programme.

It is reported that there are some deep craters in this region that never see any sunlight – they’re permanently in shadow – and scientists believe frozen water could be inside them.

Art illustration on Intuitive Machines luna lander

Art illustration on Intuitive Machines luna lander

See other recent moon landings

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Google halts Gemini AI image generator after it created inaccurate historical content

Gemini chatbot illustration

Google on Thursday 22nd February 2024 said it is pausing its Gemini artificial intelligence (AI) image generation feature after saying it offers ‘inaccuracies’ in historical pictures

Users had been reporting that the AI tool generated images of historical figures, like the U.S. Founding Fathers as people of colour, calling this inaccurate.

Google posted a statement on Thursday 22nd February 2024, saying that it will pause Gemini’s feature to generate images of people and will re-release an ‘improved’ version soon.

Is Google struggling to keep up with the AI race?

The image generator tool was launched at the start of February 2024 through Gemini, which was orignally called Bard.

It is facing challenges at a time when Google is trying to catch up with Microsoft-backed OpenAI project, Copilot.

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Japan’s Nikkei crosses 39000 barrier for the first time

Nikkei 225 index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 hit a record high of: 39098 on Thursday 22nd February 2024.

The rally was propelled by electronics, banking and consumer stocks as robust earnings and investor-friendly measures fuel a blistering rally in Japanese equities.

The Nikkei 225 jumped 2%, surpassing the previous record high of 38,915.87 reached in 1989.

Standout performance

Both the Nikkei and the broader Topix have been standout performers in Asia up more than 10% so far in 2024 after surging more than 25% in 2023. Their best annual gains in at least a decade.

Japan Inc’s solid third-quarter corporate earnings have prompted Bank of America analysts to upgrade their 2024 year-end forecasts for the Nikkei 225 to 41000 from 38500. They raised their forecasts for the Topix to 2,850 from 2,715.

The rally has also been supported by a weaker yen.

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SPLASH DOWN! ‘Oops – that didn’t go so well again, but it got a little bit further this time!’

Failed missile test

MOD missile test flops as £17 million weapon plops into sea

The Trident missile test is a routine exercise of the UK’s nuclear deterrent, which involves firing an unarmed missile from a submarine into the Atlantic Ocean

However, the latest test failed when the missile’s booster rockets didn’t function correctly and plopped into the sea near the launch site. 

This is the second time in a row that a Trident missile test has failed, raising concerns over the reliability and safety of the UK’s nuclear weapons system. The defence secretary and the head of the navy were on board the submarine HMS Vanguard when the test went wrong. 

Deterrent remains a safe option…?

The Ministry of Defence said the nuclear deterrent remains ‘safe, secure and effective’ and that the issue was specific to the test and would not affect a real launch. So that’s reassuring to hear then.  

However, some critics have called for an inquiry into the incident and questioned the need for spending billions of pounds on renewing the Trident programme.

This is highly embarrassing for both the UK and the U.S. and for the manufacturer of the Trident missile.

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Famous London landmark sold to U.S. bidder

Iconic BT Tower

British telecoms group BT said Wednesday 21st February 2024 that it had agreed to sell London’s iconic BT Tower – once an important piece of network infrastructure

It has been sold to developer MCR Hotels for £275 million ($346.6 million).

The 189-meter structure has loomed over the capital city’s central Fitzrovia since 1965, when it opened as the Post Office tower.

It carried telecommunications signals from London to the rest of the country, but its microwave aerials were made redundant more than a decade ago.

It was also known for a revolving restaurant on its 34th floor, which took 22 minutes to complete a rotation.

MCR Hotels owns 150 properties, including the TWA Hotel located in the former TWA Flight Centre at JFK International Airport in New York, USA.

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UK posts record budget surplus in January 2024

Red brief case

The U.K. logged a record £16.7 billion net budget surplus in January 2024, according to official figures released on Wednesday 21st February 2024

The Office for National Statistics noted that the country’s public finances usually run a surplus in January, unlike during other months, as receipts from annual self-assessment tax returns come in.

Combined self-assessment income and capital gains tax receipts totaled £33 billion in January, the ONS noted, down £1.8 billion from the same period of last year.

Total government tax receipts came in at a record £90.8 billion, up £2.9 billion compared to January 2023.

Government borrowing during the financial year spanning to the end of January 2024 was £96.6 billion, £3.1 billion lower than over the same 10-month period a year ago and £9.2 billion lower than the £105.8 billion previously forecast by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility.

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Is the fight against inflation failing – or does it get much harder towards the end?

Stubborn inflation

Is progress on U.S. inflation stalling?

That’s the fear spreading through Wall Street as another inflation reading on Friday 16th February 2024 came in hotter-than-expected.  

The producer price index rose 0.3% in January 2024. The largest increase since August 2024 and higher than the 0.1% forecast. Excluding food and energy, core PPI jumped 0.5%, again well above consensus.

Stubborn

It is yet another sign of stubborn price pressures across the broader U.S. economy. And it came just days after an unexpectedly hot CPI reading, which gave markets a nasty jolt.  

Both data have stoked investor worries on whether inflation is firmly under control. The latest developments also reinforce the Fed’s caution that it will need to see more evidence of disinflation before committing to lower rates.

Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor, posted on X that like the CPI data, the PPI report was a further indication that the last mile of the inflation battle is more complex than many had assumed (and still assume).

Some economists even argue the jump in Friday’s data will likely push January’s personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

The PPI data means we can finalise our core PCE forecast for January, at 0.32%. That would be the biggest increase since September. But the three months since then all saw much smaller gains.

But investors will have to wait until later this month for PCE data when it’s released on 29th February 2024.

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Magnificent 7 company profits now exceed almost every country in the world

Magnificent Seven market cap at $15 trillion

The Magnificent Seven, or MAMA ANT, is a term coined by Bank of America to describe the seven most dominant tech companies in the world

The Seven are: Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, and Alphabet. These companies have not only led the tech sector in terms of innovation, growth, and profitability, but have also become some of the most valuable entities in the world by market capitalization.

Valuation at $15 trillion

Market capitalization, or market cap, is the total value of all the shares of a company that are traded on the stock market. It reflects the market’s perception of the company’s future prospects and earnings potential. 

As of January 2023, the Magnificent Seven had a combined market cap of about $15 trillion, which was more than the gross domestic product (GDP) of almost every country in the world, except for the United States, China and Japan (just).

Magnificent Seven

The Magnificent Seven have achieved such a remarkable feat by leveraging their core competencies in various fields of technology, such as artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, social media, e-commerce, gaming, electric vehicles, and online advertising. They have also diversified their revenue streams by acquiring or developing new products and services, such as Activision Blizzard, AWS, Oculus, iPhone, GeForce, SpaceX, and YouTube. They have also benefited from the increased demand for digital solutions amid the Covid-19 pandemic, which accelerated the adoption of online platforms, remote work, and entertainment.

Challenges

However, the Magnificent Seven also face some challenges and risks that could threaten their dominance and valuation. These include increasing competition from other tech companies, especially from China, such as Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, and Huawei.

They also face regulatory scrutiny and pressure from governments and consumers over issues such as antitrust, privacy, taxation, content moderation, and environmental impact. Furthermore, they may encounter technical difficulties, security breaches, or ethical dilemmas that could damage their reputation and customer trust.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the Magnificent Seven are the most powerful and influential tech companies in the world, and their market cap surpasses that of almost every country in the world.

List of 10 countries by stock market capitalization

List of 10 countries by stock market capitalisation

The meteoric rise in the profits and market capitalisations of the Magnificent 7 U.S. tech giants: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla – outstrip those of all listed companies in almost every G20 country. Of the non-U.S. G20 countries, only China and Japan (and the latter, only just) have greater profits when their listed companies are combined.

They have achieved this by exploiting their competitive advantages in various domains of technology and expanding their offerings and markets. However, they also need to overcome some challenges and risks that could hamper their growth and value in the future.

A forced size reduction to stop the monopolising of market share could help tame these beasts too and open up fairer competition.

Should we worry?

Basically, yes, we should be concerned about the size and dominance of these companies.

This level of wealth and power concentrated in just a handful of companies has led some analysts to voice concerns over related risks in the U.S. and global stock markets.

Economists and stock market analysts have cautioned that the U.S. stock market is rivalling 2000 and 1929 in terms of being at its most concentrated in history.

The rest is history…

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Big tech vows action on ‘fake’ AI in elections

Fake AI news

Most of the world’s largest tech companies, including Microsoft, Amazon and Google have agreed to tackle what they are calling deceptive artificial intelligence (AI) in elections

The tech accord

The twenty companies have signed an accord committing them to fighting voter-deceiving content. They say they will deploy technology to detect and counter the material.

The Tech Accord to Combat Deceptive Use of AI in 2024 Elections was announced at the Munich Security Conference on Friday 16th February 2024.

The issue has come into sharp focus because it is estimated up to four billion people will be voting this year in countries such as the U.S., UK and India.

Technology to mitigate risk

Among the accord’s pledges are commitments to develop technology to mitigate risks related to deceptive election content generated by AI, and to provide transparency to the public about the action firms have taken.

Other steps include sharing best practice with one another and educating the public about how to spot when they might be seeing manipulated content.

Signatories include social media platforms X, Snap, Adobe and Meta, the owner of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp.

Proactive

However, the accord has some shortcomings, according to computer scientist Dr Deepak Padmanabhan, from Queen’s University Belfast, who has co-authored a report on elections and AI.

But he reportedly said they needed to take more proactive action instead of waiting for content to be posted before then seeking to take it down.

That could mean that realistic AI content, that may be more harmful, may stay on a platform for longer compared to obvious fakes which are easier to detect and remove, he suggested.

Target

The accord’s signatories say they will target content which deceptively fakes or alters the appearance, voice, or actions of key figures in elections.

It will also seek to deal with audio, images or videos which provide false information to voters about when, where, and how they can vote.

We have a responsibility to help ensure these tools don’t become weaponised in elections, Brad Smith, the president of Microsoft is reported to have said.

These measures, in my opinion, are a sticking plaster and will not stop the spread of dishonest and fake news!

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Energy hungry data centre power solution

AI data centre

The use of nuclear reactors for data centres is a controversial and complex topic that has both advantages and disadvantages

Nuclear reactors can provide a reliable, stable, and carbon-free source of electricity for power-hungry data centres, which are essential for the operation of various applications, such as artificial intelligence (AI).

Grid overload

Nuclear reactors can also reduce the dependence on the existing grid, which may be vulnerable to blackouts, fluctuations, or cyberattacks. On the other hand, nuclear reactors require a high initial investment, as well as strict safety and regulatory standards. Nuclear reactors also pose potential risks of radiation, waste disposal, and proliferation. Moreover, nuclear reactors may not be suitable for all locations, as they may face public opposition, environmental concerns, or geopolitical issues.

Small Modular Reactor (SMR)

One of the possible solutions to these challenges is to use small modular reactors (SMRs), which are advanced reactors with about a third of the power generation of a traditional, large nuclear plant. SMRs are designed to be more flexible, scalable, and cost-effective than conventional reactors, as they can be built off-site and transported to the desired location. SMRs can also be integrated with renewable energy sources, such as solar or wind, to create a hybrid system that can balance the power demand and supply.

However, the technology of SMRs is still in its early stages of development and deployment, and there are currently no data centres in the world that use built-in nuclear reactors. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether nuclear reactors will become a common or viable option for future data centres. The decision to use nuclear reactors for data centres should be based on a careful evaluation of the benefits and risks, as well as the alternatives and trade-offs, of each specific case.

It has been calculated that a ‘norma’ data centre (whatever that is), needs 32 megawatts of power flowing into the building. For an AI data centre, it’s closer to 80 megawatts.

AI systems are using all this extra electricity simply because they are doing so much more processing than standard computing. They are chewing through far more data.

As AI continues to develop, so too will the power requirement needed to run these monsters.

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OpenAI unveils new AI software that lets you create realistic video by typing a descriptive sentence

Video

The new AI tool from OpenAI named Sora, can generate realistic videos from text prompts.

OpenAI has developed a new AI tool named Sora that can generate highly detailed videos of up to 60 seconds from descriptive text prompts.

The tool has raised concerns about its potential misuse, particularly in the creation of deepfakes and disinformation.

On the other hand, it is a remarkable achievement in the current AI arena and created in such a short space of time.

OpenAI has stated that it is working with experts in areas like misinformation, hateful content, and bias, who are testing Sora.

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Jeff Bezos sells nearly 12 million Amazon shares worth $2 billion

2 billion

Jeff Bezos filed a statement indicating his sale of nearly 12 million shares of Amazon stock worth more than $2 billion

The Amazon executive chairman notified the U.S. SEC – Securities and Exchange Commission of the sale of 11,997,698 shares of common stock on the 7th and 8th February 2024.

The collective value of the shares of Amazon, which is based in Seattle where he founded the company in a garage around thirty years ago, was about $2.04 billion.

More to come

In a separate SEC filing, Bezos listed the proposed sale of 50 million Amazon shares on or around 7th February 2024 with an estimated market value of $8.4 billion.

Taxing decision?

Jeff Bezos moved from Seattle to Miami in November 2023, shortly before he announced his plan to sell up to 50 million Amazon shares by January 2025. 

Florida does not have a capital gains tax, unlike Washington state, which imposes a 7% tax on any gains of more than $250,000 from the sale of stocks and bonds. Therefore, by moving to Florida, Bezos could save up to $600 million in taxes on his stock sale – more than enough for a luxury yacht and 2 or 3 more luxury properties.

But, of course, we do not know if this was the real reason for his move.

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Japan’s stock markets are on a tear but are the Zombies coming?

Nikkei 225 index

After a decade-long bull run throughout the 1980’s, the Nikkei 225 index reached an all-time high of 38,915 on December 29, 1989, the last trading day of the year.

Few could have imagined, on New Year’s Eve of 1989, that the index would be lower 34 years later. As the New Year arrived, the bubble burst.

And now, Japan’s stock markets are on a tear and closing in on that elusive 38195 high of 1989 – but there’s a catch – the Zombies are coming.

Zombie companies

Zombie firms are businesses that are unprofitable and struggling to keep afloat. They don’t have excess capital to invest and grow the business, or to pay down the loan capital.

Concerns about zombie firms are coming into focus as the Bank of Japan is tipped to raise interest rates in 2024 for the first time since 2007.

It comes as the Nikkei 225 rises to its highest point in almost 34 years

Japan’s stock markets have been on a meteoric run since the start of 2023, repeatedly breaching 33-year highs and outperforming the rest of Asia.

However, there are rising concerns that so called ‘zombie’ firms, which are unprofitable and struggling to keep afloat, could cut short that rally. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise interest rates this year, and that could easily tip many of these firms into bankruptcy, which could have a broader impact on the economy and stock market,

Nikkei 225 1-year chart 9th February 2024

Nikkei 225 1-year chart 9th February 2024

Bankrupt businesses

Zombie firms are nothing new in Japan. They first emerged after the stock ‘bubble’ and subsequent crash of the 1990s, when banks continued to support companies that would have otherwise gone bankrupt. 

The pandemic of 2020 accelerated the problem of zombie businesses, with the number of zombie firms in Japan reportedly jumping by around 33% between 2021 and 2022. 

At the end of 2023, Japan reportedly had around 250,000 companies that are technically zombie businesses

Some experts argue that zombie firms are a drag on Japan’s productivity, innovation, and growth, as they occupy resources and crowd out more efficient firms. The debate on how to deal with zombie firms is ongoing and may have implications for Japan’s economic recovery and future prospects.

Others suggest that zombie firms may have a positive effect, such as preserving employment, social stability, and industrial diversity.

Surely, there is no room for inefficiently run businesses making little or no profit in any economy.

Watch out for the Zombies!

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Are AI investing trading bots taking over? It’s a little bit alien to me

Alien investing

AI ‘trading bots’ are software programs that use artificial intelligence (AI) to analyse market data, generate trading signals, and execute trades automatically.

‘I meant Artificial Intelligence Investing not ‘Alien’ Investing (AI)’

AI trading bots are becoming more popular among investors who want to take advantage of the speed, accuracy, and efficiency of AI technology. But is this a good thing for the future of investing?

Pros

AI ‘trading bots’ could transform the world of investing

  • Enabling more accessible and affordable trading for everyone, regardless of their experience, knowledge, or capital.
  • Enhancing the performance and profitability of trading strategies, by optimising entry and exit points, managing risk, and adapting to changing market conditions.
  • Providing more diverse and innovative trading opportunities, by exploring new markets, assets, and strategies that human traders may overlook or ignore.
  • Reducing the emotional and psychological biases that often affect human traders, such as fear, greed, overconfidence, and regret.

Cons

AI ‘trading bots’ also pose some challenges and risks

  • Increasing the complexity and volatility of the markets, by creating feedback loops, amplifying trends, and triggering flash crashes.
  • Exposing traders to technical glitches, security breaches, and malicious attacks, by relying on software and internet connectivity that may malfunction or be compromised.
  • Raising ethical and regulatory issues, by creating potential conflicts of interest, information asymmetry, and market manipulation.

Conclusion

AI ‘trading bots’ are not a mystical ‘get rich quick solution’ that can guarantee success in the world of investing. They are tools that require careful selection, evaluation, and supervision by human input and for the human trader to maintain ultimate control.

We should always be aware of the benefits and limitations of AI technology.

Alien investing
Are AI investing trading bots taking over? ‘I meant Artificial Intelligence Investing not ‘Alien’ Investing (AI)’
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Turkey’s inflation nears 65%

Inflation climbs

In January 2024, inflation logged its biggest monthly jump since August with a 6.7% rise from December 2023.

Year-on-year inflation hit nearly 65%, according to the Turkish Central Bank’s figures released Monday 5th January 2024

The consumer price index (CPI) for the country of 85 million people increased by 64.86% annually, up slightly from the 64.77% of December.

Sectors with the largest monthly price rises were health at 17.7%, hotels, cafes and restaurants at 12%, and miscellaneous goods and services at just over 10%. Clothing and footwear were the only sectors showing a monthly price decrease, with -1.61%.

Food, beverages and tobacco, as well as transportation, all increased between roughly 5% and 7% month-on-month, while housing was up 7.4% since December 2024.

Interest rate hike to 45%, see report here.