Nvidia shares rose 4.2% Tuesday 29th August 2023 to close at a record high, after the company announced a partnership with Google that could expand distribution of its artificial intelligence technology (AI).
The stock’s bountiful run continued, now up 234% in 2023, making it by far the best performer in the S&P 500. Facebook parent Meta is second in the index, up 148% so far this year.
The record close comes less than a week after the company said quarterly revenue doubled from a year earlier and gave a forecast indicating that sales this period could rise 170% on an annual basis. The day after the better-than-expected earnings report, the stock climbed to a record intraday high of $502.66 before declining later in the afternoon.
Nvidia’s business is booming because its graphics processing (GPU’s) are being gobbled up by cloud companies, government agencies and startups to train and deploy generative AI models like the technology deployed in OpenAI’s ChatGPT as fasta as Nvidia can make them.
NVIDIA stock chart
Nvidia announcment
On Tuesday 29th August 2023, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang appeared at a Google conference to announce an AI agreement between the two companies.
Through the partnership, Google’s cloud customers will have greater access to technology powered by Nvidia’s powerful H100 GPUs.
‘Our expanded collaboration with Google Cloud will help developers accelerate their work with infrastructure, software and services that supercharge energy efficiency and reduce costs’, the Nvidia CEO reportedly said in a blog post.
Nvidia’s GPUs are also available on competing cloud platforms from Amazon and Microsoft.
At 4.33%, the 10-year Treasury yield in the U.S. is at its highest in 16 years. That represents a risk-free, long-duration asset with relatively high returns and this is challenging the stock market.
Why should traders invest in stocks that may not return as much, or just slightly more and take unecessary risks, when there is an asset class that guarantees around 4% return or slighlty more?
Cash is king?
Cash is now yielding 5% in the U.S., short term bonds are yielding 5% plus, so equities for the first time in a long time, have actually got some competition.
Typically stocks if they do well, are likely to return more than a risk-free asset, precisely because it isn’t certain stocks will rise. That’s called the equity risk premium, a return that’s supposed to compensate stock investors for the chance that they might lose money. But, as the premium is below 1% now. Historically, it’s been between 2% and 4% – meaning stocks are looking much less attractive than Treasuries.
Harder job for the Fed?
Another potential issue that could crop up with high Treasury yields is that it could make the Federal Reserve’s job tougher. During the recent Jackson Hole gathering, the Fed head has indicated that more interest rate hikes are still high possibility.
But don’t panic just yet… this is likely a pullback phase of a bull market analysts suggest. That is, it’s still too early to be bearish on stocks.
Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni is reported to have said that the market is ‘going to hang in there’ and ‘a year-end rally will bring the S&P 500 back to something like 4,600‘.
That implied an increase of almost 5% in stocks – while not certain – would give Treasuries a run for their money again.
An apparent ‘technical issue’ halts flights to and from UK as the UK National Air Traffic Services control system (NATS) goes offline!
Holidaymakers are stuck all over the UK and abroad, with the National Air Traffic Services (NATS) saying it had applied restrictions to traffic flow. Passengers have been advised to check if their flight has been affected on one of the biggest UK travel days of the year.
National Air Traffic System
NATS reportedly apologised for the fault just after midday on bank holiday Monday 28th August 2023, before it announced at 15:15 BST that it had identified and remedied the issue that was affecting its ‘ability to automatically process flight plans’. We don’t yet know what caused the failure. NATS added that engineers would be monitoring the system’s performance as it returns to normal.
NATS had earlier stressed that ‘UK airspace was not closed, we have had to apply air traffic flow restrictions which ensures we can maintain safety’.
Several airports across the UK, and most airlines have all warned passengers of delays or cancellations to flights.
How fragile are the infrastructures systems in the UK?
‘Why travel when you can stay at the airport free of charge’!?- ‘It wasn’t that long ago UK airports were brought to a standstill through strikes and border control issues. C’mon UK Plc… get your act together’!
Slow-Growing UK Faces Over £2.6 Trillion Debt Pile
£2,600,000,000,000 in debt
The amount the UK owes exceeds GDP for first time since 1961. Inflation-linked bonds mean the UK is paying more than its peers.
From the financial crisis to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UK has borrowed and spent its way out of every jam. The bill for that is becoming a massive concern for the UK treasury and for the economy.
£2.6 trillion public debt
The UK’s public debt has soared by more than 40% to almost £2.6 trillion ($3.3 trillion) since the pandemic struck, leaving the country owing more than its entire annual economic output for the first time since 1961. A heavy reliance on index-linked bonds, at a time of high inflation, also means Britain will pay more to service the debt.
The high level of debt poses a risk to the UK’s credit rating, which could affect its borrowing costs and fiscal credibility. The three main credit-rating firms are due to update their assessments of the UK over the next four months in 2023, and some analysts are concerned that the UK could face a downgrade, especially after the U.S. lost its AAA status from Fitch.
A downgrade could undermine Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s effort to rebuild Britain’s fiscal reputation after his predecessor, Liz Truss, triggered a bond-market crash in 2022 by promising huge unfunded tax cuts.
Bond sell-off pressure
The pressure on the UK’s finances is also being compounded by a selloff in bonds amid aggressive rate hikes by the Bank of England to quell inflation. The yield on the 10-year benchmark this week rose above 4.70% to its highest since 2008.
UK debt higher than UK GDP March 2023
The UK bond market is among the developed world’s worst performers this year. The rise in yields could increase the cost of servicing the debt, which is already high due to the UK’s heavy reliance on index-linked bonds that adjust with inflation.
The UK’s economic growth is forecast to remain flat through next year, which limits the scope for reducing the debt through higher revenues or lower spending. The National Health Service is stretched to breaking point and the tax burden is already at a 70-year high. The ONS warned that debt could balloon to more than three times GDP over the next half century without action.
ONS data
According to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2023 (April to June), following a revised growth of 0.1% in the first quarter of 2023 (January to March). This means that the UK’s GDP growth rate for the whole year of 2023 is estimated to be 0.3%, which is lower than the previous forecast of 0.5%.
ONS data to March 2023
The main factors that contributed to the weak GDP growth in the second quarter were the slowdown in consumer spending, the decline in business investment, and the negative impact of the additional bank holiday in May due to the King’s Coronation. The services sector, which accounts for about 80% of the UK’s economy, grew by only 0.1% in the second quarter, while the production sector grew by 0.7%, and the construction sector fell by 0.2%.
Uncertain outlook in uncertain times
The outlook for the UK’s economy remains uncertain, as it faces several challenges such as high inflation, rising interest rates, a slowing global economy, and the ongoing effects of Brexit and the effects of the war in Ukraine.
ONS data for EU countries
Some economists have warned that the UK faces a ‘very real risk’ of recession due to higher interest rates, which could dampen consumer and business confidence and increase the cost of servicing the debt.
The OECD has projected that the UK’s GDP growth will improve moderately to 1.0% in 2024, but still remain below its pre-pandemic level.
The latest U.S. mortgage rates are the highest they have been in decades.
The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 7.23% in the week ending 25th August 2023, up from 7.09% the week before, according to latest bank reports from U.S. This is the highest level since June 2001, when it was 7.24%.
The rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage increased to 7.31% in the week ended 18th August 2023, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data. This is the highest level since late 2000.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.16% with 0.68 points as of August 16, according to U.S. News. This is up from 7.09% with 0.7 points the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage increased to 7.6%.
Inflation driving interest rates up
The rise in mortgage rates is driven by indications of ongoing economic strength and inflation pressures, which have also pushed up Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate expectations.
Higher mortgage rates make home buying more expensive and reduce the affordability of homeownership. They also discourage existing homeowners from selling or refinancing their homes, which contributes to the low inventory of available homes for sale.
As a result, home sales have declined and home prices have soared in many markets. Will interest rates touch 8%?
Technology giant Nvidia reports its sales have hit a record after more than doubling as demand for its artificial intelligence (AI) chips take off!
It figures
The company says revenue jumped to above $13.5bn (£10.6bn) for the three months to the end of June. Nvidia also expects sales to perform very well in the current quarter and plans to buy back $25bn of its stock. The firm’s shares rose by more than 6.5% in extended trading in New York, adding to their huge gains this year. Nvidia also said it expects revenue of around $16bn for the three months to the end of September 2023.
That is substantially higher than Wall Street expected and would equate to a rise of around 170%, compared to the same time last year.
Even before 23rd August’s figures, Nvidia’s stock price had more than tripled for the year, making it the top performer in the S&P 500. It’s share price jumped to around $500 after hours, a level that would mark a record if it closes there on 24th August 2023. Its prior closing high was $474.94 on 18th July 2023.
‘A new computing era has begun’, Nvidia’s chief executive, Jensen Huang, said in a statement. ‘Companies worldwide are transitioning from general-purpose to accelerated computing and generative AI’, he reportedly added.
Strong performance
The strong performance was driven by Nvidia’s data centre business, which includes AI chips.
The power of Nvidia’s AI microchips
Revenue for that unit came in at more $10.3bn, a rise of more than 170% from year ago, as cloud computing service providers and large consumer internet companies snapped up its next-generation processors.
This year, Nvidia’s stock market value has jumped to more than $1 trillion as its shares more than tripled in value, mking it the fifth publicly traded U.S. company to join the so-called ‘Trillion dollar club’, along with Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft.
AI ‘mania’ helps Nvidia
Nvidia have been making micro chips for a long time and it’s only really been in the last couple of years that the market has caught on.
Nvidia was originally known for making the type of computer chips that process graphics, particularly for computer games. They have been making chips for a long time and have now become the leader in AI chip design and manufacture.
Now Nvidia’s hardware is the foundation for most AI applications, with one report suggesting it had cornered 95% of the market for machine learning.
ChatGPT which generates human-like responses to user queries within seconds was trained using 10,000 of Nvidia’s graphics processing units clustered together in a supercomputer belonging to Microsoft.
AI products are expected to dramatically change how we use computers and the role they play in our lives.
AI Chatbot ChatGPT reportedly has a political bias
ChatGPT, the popular artificial intelligence chatbot, shows a significant and systemic left-wing bias, UK researchers have found. According to the new study by the University of East Anglia, this includes favouring theLabour Party and President Joe Biden’s Democrats in the U.S.
Concerns about an inbuilt political bias in ChatGPT have been raised before, notably by SpaceX and Tesla tycoon Elon Musk, but the academics said their work was the first large-scale study to find proof of any favouritism.
Lead author o the report reportedly warned that given the increasing use of OpenAI’s platform by the public, the findings could have implications for upcoming elections on both sides of the Atlantic. Any bias in a platform like this is a concern’, he said. If the bias were to the right, we should be equally concerned.
Sometimes people forget these AI models are just machines. They provide very believable, digested summaries of what you are asking, even if they’re completely wrong. And if you ask it ‘are you neutral’, it says ‘oh I am!’ Just as the media, the internet, and social media can influence the public, this could be very harmful. I have personally witnessed incorrect responses from ChatGPT where the AI ‘system’ 100% believed ‘it’ was correct and would not engage in a debate as ‘it’ was right!
How was ChatGPT tested for bias?
The chatbot, which generates responses to prompts typed in by the user, was asked to impersonate people from across the political spectrum while answering dozens of ideological questions. These questions ranged from radical to neutral, with each ‘individual’ asked whether they agreed, strongly agreed, disagreed, or strongly disagreed with a given statement.
UK researchers descovered Chatbot ChatGPT had a political bias
Its replies were compared to the default answers it gave to the same set of queries, allowing the researchers to compare how much they were associated with a particular political stance.
Each of the more than 60 questions was asked 100 times to allow for the potential randomness of the AI, and these multiple responses were analysed further for signs of bias.
Dr Motoki described it as a way of trying to simulate a survey of a real human population, whose answers may also differ depending on when they’re asked.
British microchip designing giant Arm has announced that it has filed paperwork to sell its shares in the U.S.
The Cambridge-based company, which designs chips for devices from smartphones to game consoles, plans to list on New York’s Nasdaq in September. The highly anticipated IPO in the U.S. comes after UK Prime Minister, failed to convince Arm to float in London or pursue a dual UK-U.S. listing.
Arm’s decision to list in New York rather than London has fuelled fears that the City is losing its competitiveness to Wall Street, where valuations are typically higher. SoftBank-owned chip designer Arm on 21st August 2023 disclosed a modest 1% fall in annual revenue as it made public the paperwork for a U.S. listing that is expected to be the year’s biggest initial public offering. The company is reportedly looking for a valuation of between $60bn (£47bn) to $70bn.
Arm was bought in 2016 by Japanese conglomerate Softbank in a deal worth £23.4bn. Prior to the takeover, it was listed in both London and New York for 18 years.
Companies that use ARM processors in their products
Some of the companies that use ARM processors include Apple, Qualcomm, Samsung, Broadcom, and Fujitsu. ARM technology is used in a wide range of devices, from smartphones to game consoles to supercomputers.
ARM
Arm is a British semiconductor and software design company that is known for its Arm processors, which are widely used in smartphones, tablets, laptops, and other devices. Arm was founded in 1990 as a joint venture between Acorn Computers, Apple Computer, and VLSI Technology. The company was originally called Advanced RISC Machines, but later changed its name to Arm Ltd in 1998.
China’s central bank has cut one of its key interest rates for the second time in three months as the world’s second-largest economy struggles to bounce back from the pandemic.
The country’s post-Covid recovery has been hit by a property crisis, falling exports and weak consumer spending. In contrast, other major economies have raised rates to tackle high inflation. Raising interest rates to tackle inflation is likely creating a econmic problem all of its own for many contries caught in the inflation trap.
The PBOC last cut its one-year rate, on which most of China’s household and business loans are based, in June 2023 – demonstrating China’s commitment to reviving the economy. Economists had also expected the bank to lower its five-year loan rate, which the country’s mortgages are pegged to. However, this was unchanged at 4.2%. In a surprise move mid-August 2023, short and medium-term rates were also cut.
More stimulus
China will need a much bigger stimulus package to boost confidence to drive up consumption and growth. Without it, the economy is risking faltering into deflation which will make it even harder to recover. More rate cuts could be announced in conjunction with government spending, as well as targeted measures to help the property market.
China struggling to shake off the effect of the 2020 pandemic
Beijing is trying to restore confidence, but officials will also be mindful of the long-term implications of the policies may create. China’s economy has struggled to overcome several major issues in the wake of the pandemic, which saw much of the world shut down.
Property problems
Concerns with China’s property market still remain and were highlighted again when ongoing crisis-hit real estate giant Evergrande filed for bankruptcy protection in the U.S in August. The heavily-indebted company is attempting to arrange a multi-billion dollar deal with creditors.
Also, earlier this month, another of the country’s biggest property developers, Country Garden, warned that it could see a loss of up to $7.6bn (£6bn) for the first six months of the year. At the same time data showed China had slipped into deflation for the first time in more than two years. That was as the official consumer price index, a measure of inflation, fell by 0.3% last in July 2023 from a year earlier.
Exports, imports and youth employment figures
Official figures indicated that China’s imports and exports fell sharply in July 2023 as weaker global demand threatened the country’s recovery prospects.
China exports and imports slow July 2023
Beijing has also stopped releasing youth unemployment figures, which were seen by some as a key indication of the country’s slowdown. In June 2023, China’s jobless rate for 16 to 24-year-olds in urban areas climbed to a record high of more than 20%.
There is a serious ongoing message here of concern and worry for global stock markets, and not just from China – do we need to act now?
The 89 threats to life in the UK are listed in a recent report called the National Risk Register (NRR), which was published by the Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden on 3rd August 2023.
The NRR is an assessment of the risks facing the UK that would have a significant impact on the UK’s safety, security or critical systems at a national level. The NRR is based on the government’s internal, classified risk assessment and offers more detail on the potential scenarios, response and recovery options relating to the risks.
The 89 threats are divided into four categories: natural hazards, malicious attacks, accidents and system failures, and global events.
Some of the threats
Natural hazards: These include extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, floods, storms, droughts, and wildfires; geological hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and landslides; biological hazards, such as pandemics, animal diseases, plant diseases, and invasive species; and space weather events, such as solar flares and geomagnetic storms.
Malicious attacks: These include terrorism, such as bombings, shootings, chemical weapons, biological weapons, radiological weapons, cyberattacks, and drones; espionage and sabotage, such as interference with critical infrastructure, communications, or data; and conflict and instability, such as war, nuclear weapons, state-sponsored attacks, civil unrest, and violent extremism.
‘Cyber security hack – just one of the potential risks facing the UK’.
Accidents and system failures: These include industrial accidents, such as explosions, fires, spills, or leaks; transport accidents, such as plane crashes, train derailments, ship collisions, or road collisions; infrastructure failures, such as power outages, water shortages, gas leaks, or internet disruptions; and technological failures, such as software bugs, hardware malfunctions, or AI errors.
Global events: These include economic crises, such as recessions, inflation, debt defaults, or trade wars; political crises, such as coups, revolutions, sanctions, or human rights violations; social crises, such as migration flows, refugee crises, humanitarian emergencies, or famines; and environmental crises, such as climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution, or resource depletion.
Threat level
The NRR also provides information on how likely each threat is to occur in the next five years (from very low to very high), how severe the impact would be on the UK (from minor to catastrophic), and what actions the government and other stakeholders are taking to prevent or mitigate the risks.
The NRR is intended to help the public and businesses better understand and prepare for potential threats facing the country now and in the future.
The U.S. stock market has experienced a 5.6% slide for the S&P 500 index over 15 trading sessions through 17th August 2023 and levelling off in the last trading day of that week.
This is about as bad as August typically gets, as August is a rocky month with low volume and high volatility. Some of the reasons for the pullback include the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, and the signs of a slowing Chinese economy.
Pullback temporary for August?
However, some analysts argue that the pullback will likely prove to be temporary and not turn into a serious market rout. It has been suggested that the bull run isn’t quite over just yet, and that a 10% ‘pullback’ was on the cards.
Analysts also suggest that the rise in yields would need to threaten a serious shift or there would need to be an additional shock to cause a larger selloff.
NASDAQ
NASDAQ drops some 7% in one month from 19th July – 18th August 2023
However, some suggest that the market is showing signs of stability, as the speed of the surge in the 10-year yield often occurs near the end of a selling cycle for equities. Investors should watch for indicators such as oil prices, wage pressures, and inflation expectations to gauge the market sentiment.
The S&P 500 and the Dow levelled off the week at the close of trading Friday 18th August 2023.
The NASDAQ did score its best first half of the trading year since 1983 January to June 2023 so a pullback was likely to happen.
Bitcoin fell sharply on Thursday 17th August by 9% to just over $26,000
The fall in Bitcoin followed several hours after reports emerged that SpaceX, one of Elon Musk’s enterprises, wrote down the value of its Bitcoin holdings by a total of $373 million in 2022 and 2021, and that the space travel company had sold the virtual currency.
This is likely one of the fastest minute-by-minute selloffs in the history of Bitcoin but this is largely an Elon Musk/SpaceX-driven selloff and probably short-sighted and largely retail-driven. But still, 9% is a big drop for any asset!
In 2022, Tesla, which Musk also owns, announced that it sold about 75% of its Bitcoin holdings after investing $1.5 billion in the flagship cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin had been under pressure earlier, starting after the Federal Reserve issued the minutes from its July policy meeting. In Thursday’s session, the cryptocurrency slumped to its lowest level in almost two months.
Singapore’s financial regulator has reportedly said it had finalised rules for a type of digital currency called ‘stablecoin’, placing it among some of first the regulators worldwide to do so.
Stablecoins are a type of digital currency designed to hold a constant value against a fiat currency. Many claim to be backed by a reserve of real-world assets, such as cash or government bonds.
Reserves that back stabelcoins must be held in low-risk and highly-liquid assets. They must equal or exceed the value of the stablecoin in circulation at all times, the rules say. The stablecoin market is valued at around $125 billion, with two tokens – Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC – dominating roughly 90% of the market cap value. Stablecoins are broadly unregulated around the world.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) framework requirement
Reserves that back stabelcoins must be held in low-risk and highly-liquid assets. They must equal or exceed the value of the stablecoin in circulation at all times
Stablecoin issuers must return the par value of the digital currency to holders within five business days of a redemption request.
Issuers must also provide ‘appropriate disclosures‘ to users, including the audit results of reserves.
These rules will apply to stablecoins that are issued in Singapore and mimic the value of the Singapore dollar, or of any G10 currencies, such as the U.S. dollar.
‘Shackles being removed from crypto regulation paving way for stablecoin adoption’
Last year, the collapse of a so-called algorithmic stablecoin named UST put this type of stablecoin in the crosshairs of regulators. Unlike USDT and USDC, UST was governed by an algorithm and did not have real-world assets like bonds in its reserves.
Singapore’s stablecoin framework puts it among one of the first jurisdictions to have such rules. In June, the U.K. passed a law that gives regulators the ability to oversee stablecoins, though there are no concrete rules yet. Hong Kong is meanwhile undergoing a public consultation on stablecoins and seeks to introduce regulation next year.
What is a stablecoin
A stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency that tries to maintain a stable value by being pegged to another asset, such as a fiat currency, a commodity, or another cryptocurrency. Stablecoins aim to offer the benefits of cryptocurrencies, such as decentralisation, security, and transparency, without the drawbacks of high volatility and price fluctuations.
Stablecoins can be used for payments, remittances, trading, and storing value. However, stablecoins also face some challenges and risks, such as regulatory uncertainty, technical issues, and trust issues.
There are different ways to create and manage stablecoins, depending on the mechanism used to stabilize their value.
Main types of stablecoins
Fiat-backed: These stablecoins are backed by a reserve of fiat currency, such as the US dollar or the euro, held by a third-party entity. The stablecoin issuer promises to redeem the stablecoin for the fiat currency at a fixed ratio. Examples of fiat-backed stablecoins are Tether (USDT), USD Coin (USDC), and TrueUSD (TUSD).
Commodity-backed: These stablecoins are backed by a reserve of physical commodities, such as gold, silver, or oil, held by a third-party entity. The stablecoin issuer promises to redeem the stablecoin for the commodity at a fixed ratio. Examples of commodity-backed stablecoins are Paxos Gold (PAXG), Tether Gold (XAUT), and Digix Gold (DGX).
Crypto-backed: These stablecoins are backed by a reserve of other cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, held in a smart contract. The stablecoin issuer uses over-collateralization or algorithmic adjustments to maintain the stability of the stablecoin. Examples of crypto-backed stablecoins are Dai (DAI), sUSD (SUSD), and BitUSD (BITUSD).
Algorithmic: These stablecoins are not backed by any reserve, but instead use an algorithm to control the supply and demand of the stablecoin. The algorithm adjusts the supply of the stablecoin according to the market conditions and the target price. Examples of algorithmic stablecoins are Basis Cash (BAC), Empty Set Dollar (ESD), and TerraUSD (UST).
What is ‘crypto’
Crypto has attracted a lot of attention in recent years. Crypto is short for cryptocurrency, which is a digital or virtual currency that uses cryptography to secure and verify transactions. Crypto can also refer to the underlying technology that powers cryptocurrencies, such as blockchain.
Some examples of popular cryptocurrencies are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple ( XRP)and Cardano (ADA).
Cryptoman superhero
Cryptocurrencies have many advantages over traditional currencies, such as decentralisation, transparency, anonymity, and lower fees. However, they also face some challenges, such as volatility, regulation, security, and scalability. Crypto enthusiasts believe that cryptocurrencies have the potential to revolutionise the world of finance and beyond.
Some examples of popular stablecoins are Tether, USD Coin and Binance USD.
Asia is promoting clear crypto rules at a time when large businesses are facing regulatory uncertainty in the U.S.
Some Asian countries that have taken the lead in crypto regulation include Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea. They have proposed or implemented frameworks that protect investors, prevent money laundering, and encourage innovation in the crypto industry.
Lack of clarity in U.S.
In contrast, the U.S. has been singled out for its lack of clarity and consistency in crypto regulation. The SEC for instance and other agencies have different views on how to classify and regulate crypto assets – take alook at the case with XRP and ripple of recent years.
Some industry leaders have threatened to leave the U.S. or sued the regulators over their actions. There is also a debate in Congress that could level crypto transactions with a tax.
Attractive
As a result, some analysts have suggested that Asia could become more attractive to investors and innovators in the crypto industry, as it offers more certainty and stability in the regulatory environment.
However, there are also challenges and risks involved in crypto regulation, such as balancing security and innovation, ensuring compliance and enforcement, and dealing with cross-border issue.
A technical issue that affected the Bank of Ireland’s online banking services allowed some customers to withdraw or transfer more money than they had in their accounts.
The glitch reportedly also added €1,000 to some accounts without explanation. This led to large crowds forming at ATMs across the country, hoping to take advantage of the error.
Some reports suggest that the police were called to calm some situations as some ATMs ran out of cash. The bank has since fixed the problem and warned customers that any excess money they withdrew or transferred will be debited from their accounts.
The bank also apologized for the disruption and urged customers who may face financial difficulties due to overdrawing on their accounts to contact them.
Questions remain – how or even why did this happen?
‘Bank error allowed people to withdraw money from their accounts they didn’t have’.
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – Inflation fell to 6.8% in the year to July 2023, down from 7.9% in June. A reduction was anticipated by analysts, and there are signs the cost of living could be easing finally, after figures on Tuesday revealed wages rose 7.8% annually between April and June 2023. But inflation and therefore prices remain high, placing pressure on household finances.
When the rate of inflation falls, it does not always mean that prices are coming down, but that they are likely to rise less quickly. A fall in gas and electricity prices last month helped drive inflation lower. The cost of some food food items, such as milk, bread and cereals had come down, but that food prices are still some 15% higher than they were in July 2022.
Core inflation
However, according to the ONS figures core inflation a figure which strips out the price of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, remained unchanged in July at 6.9%. With inflation still more than three times the Bank of England’s 2% target, many ‘experts’ expect the UK’s central bank to raise interest rates again in September 2023.
The Bank has steadily hiked interest rates to 5.25%, the highest level in 15 years, meaning mortgage costs have jumped dramatically, but on the flipside savings rates have increased too for the first time since the financial crisis of 2008.
Working?
The Chancellor said July’s figures on the cost of living showed the action the government had taken ‘is working’.
Comment
Well… it’s ‘working‘ in the sense it is having the desired affect to reduce inflation – (that both the government and the Bank of England were way behind on) – but it isn’t helping the economy, as interest rates climb making it more expensive for businesses and consumers to function.
But, at least wages are going up now thanks to all the strikes! This will ultimately add more inflationary pressure in the short term.
Regular pay grew by 7.8%, the highest annual growth rate since comparable records began in 2001.Inflation, which measures the pace at which prices are rising, has eased but remains relatively high at 7.9%. Thhe ONS suggested these latest figures demonstrates ‘people’s real pay is recovering‘ and that basic pay is growing at its fastest since current records began’.
However, wage growth is still not quite outstripping the pace of price rises and inflation is still high. Figures suggest that, taking into account the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure of inflation, average regular pay fell by 0.6%.
There are signs in the ONS’s data that the UK employment market is easing. The jobless rate rose from 4% to 4.2%, while the number of people in employment ticked lower.
Backward stats..?
The fall in employment in the three months to June and the further rise in the unemployment rate will be welcomed by the Bank of England as a sign labour market conditions are cooling. These comments from an analyst were presented as welcome news – but they are odd really when an economy needs good levels of employment (not unemployment). We live in weird times! Good news! Bad news!
The Bank of England is still generally expected by many pundits to increase its key interest rate again to 5.5% before ending the current run of rate rises.
The number of vacancies in the UK jobs market fell again, down 66,000 between May and July 2023. However, there are still more than one million vacancies.
Strike action adds to inflationary pressure
List of workers striking for higher pay
Teachers
Tube staff
Railway workers
Doctors
Nurses
NHS staff
Ambulance workers
Passport Office workers
Border control staff
Airport workers
Civil servants
University staff
Barristers
This is by no means an exhaustive list – just a sample of the demands placed on resources through strike action that impacts inflation through a period of fast wage growth.
Japan’s economy beats expectations with 6% annualised growth in Q2
Japan’s economy posted its third straight quarterly expansion, latest government data showed 15th August 2023, as robust export growth contributed to an annualised 6% expansion in the second quarter, easily beating market expectations.
Economists had reportedly expected the world’s third-largest economy to produce a 3.1% growth in the April-June quarter. The GDP data translated to a more modest quarterly expansion of 1.5%, topping expectations for 0.8% growth.
The strong performance was mainly driven by a surge in exports, especially in the auto sector, as global demand recovered from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Japan also benefited from an increase in inbound tourism, as travel restrictions eased and the Tokyo Olympics boosted visitor arrivals.
Outlook
However, the outlook for the Japanese economy remains uncertain, as the country faces a resurgence of COVID-19 cases and a sluggish consumer recovery. The government has extended a state of emergency in several regions, including Tokyo and Osaka, until the end of August, which could dampen domestic spending and business activity.
Quarterly expansion came in at a more modest 1.5%, versus expectations for 0.8% growth.
Optimism was tempered by muted domestic demand, given a surprise drop in private consumption expenditure despite the first employee compensation sequential increase in seven quarters.
Historically low interest rates
The Bank of Japan has maintained its ultra-easy monetary policy stance, keeping its key interest rate at -0.1% and pledging to support the economy with massive asset purchases.
The central bank has also introduced a new lending scheme to encourage green and digital investment for the future.
Russia’s central bank has announced a surprise hike in its key lending rate by 3.5%, from 8.5% to 12%, as the country’s economic recovery loses steam amid a resurgence of COVID-19 cases and weak domestic demand.
The decision was announced after an emergency meeting of the bank’s board of directors was called a day earlier as the ruble declined. The fall comes as Moscow increases military spending and Western sanctions weigh on its energy exports.
The Russian currency passed 101 roubles to the dollar on Monday, losing more than a third of its value since the beginning of the year and hitting the lowest level in almost 17 months. It had recovered slightly after the central bank announced the meeting.
The central bank blamed the weak ruble on ‘loose monetary policy‘, suggesting that bank has ‘all the tools necessary‘ to stabilize the situation.
More imports, less exports
By raising borrowing costs, the central bank is trying to fight price spikes as Russia imports more and exports less, especially oil and natural gas, with defense spending going up and sanctions taking a toll. Importing more and exporting less means a smaller trade surplus, which typically weighs on a country’s currency.
The bank also made a big rate hike of 1% last month, saying inflation is expected to keep rising and the fall in the ruble is adding to the risk.
After Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the ruble plunged to a low of 130 to the dollar, but the central bank enacted capital controls that stabilized its value.
China’s central bank has announced a surprise cut in its key lending rates as the country’s economic recovery loses steam amid as domestic demand remains weak.
The PBOC trimmed the interest rate on 401 billion yuan ($55.25 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans from 2.65% to 2.50%.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said on Monday 14th August 2023 that it would lower the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 10 basis points from 3.55% to 3.45%, and the five-year LPR by 10 basis points from 4.2% to 4.1%. The LPRs are benchmark rates that reflect the cost of borrowing for banks and businesses.
Easing domestic contraints
The rate cuts are aimed at easing the financial constraints on households and businesses to boost their financing demand and stimulating economic growth, which slowed to 5.2% year-on-year in the second quarter, down from 6.8% in the first quarter.
Analysts said the rate cuts also indicated a shift in China’s monetary policy stance from neutral to moderately easing, as the PBOC faces increasing pressure to support the economy amid rising deflationary risks, falling producer and consumer prices, and subdued real estate activity.
The PBOC reportedly said it would continue to implement a prudent monetary policy and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the market.
UK to unleash £50 billion in pension funding for tech startups
The U.K. government has unveiled a series of reforms that will allow pension funds to invest more in private and high-growth companies, especially in the tech sector. The move is expected to boost economic growth, support innovation and increase returns for future retirees.
The reforms include an agreement with the country’s largest defined contribution pension schemes to allocate 5% of assets in their default funds to unlisted equities by 2030. This could unlock up to £50 billion of investment in high-growth firms if all other defined contribution pension schemes follow suit, according to the government.
AI
The government will also create new investment vehicles that will give pensioners a stake in homegrown private companies, such as fintech and biotech startups, that have increasingly snubbed the London Stock Exchange and turned to foreign investors for cash. The aim is to make the U.K. a more attractive market for technology and a global leader in emerging fields like artificial intelligence.
The Treasury claimed that the reforms would not only help burgeoning industries, but could also result in higher returns for workers’ retirement funds. The government estimates that the average earner’s pension pot could rise up to 12% to as much as £16,000 with defined contribution pension schemes committing to more effective investments.
Unlock
The announcement comes amid criticism that the U.K. is losing its edge in technology and innovation, as evidenced by the recent decision of U.K. chip design giant Arm to list in New York rather than London. The chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, reportedly said that he wanted to make the U.K. ‘the world’s next Silicon Valley and a science superpower’ by unlocking investment from the U.K.’s £2.5 trillion pensions sector.
The reforms were welcomed by industry groups and experts, who said that they would help address the funding gap faced by many U.K. startups and scale-ups, and create more opportunities for long-term growth and value creation.
Amazon is one of the leading companies in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) and has been developing its own custom chips to power its AI applications and services.
Amazon’s AI chips are designed to perform tasks such as natural language processing, computer vision, speech recognition, and machine learning inference and training.
AI chips created by Amazon
AZ2: This is a processor built into the Echo Show 15 smart display and powers artificial intelligence tasks like understanding your voice commands and figuring out who is issuing those commands. The AZ2 chip also enables features such as visual ID, which can recognize faces and display personalized information on the screen.
Inferentia: This is a high-performance chip that Amazon launched to deliver low-cost and high-throughput inference for deep learning applications. Inferentia powers Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) Inf1 instances, which are optimized for running inference workloads on AWS. Inferentia also powers some of Amazon’s own services, such as Alexa, Rekognition, and SageMaker Neo.
Trainium: This is a chip that Amazon designed to provide high-performance and low-cost training for machine learning models. Trainium will power Amazon EC2 Inf2 instances, which are designed to train increasingly complex models, such as large language models and vision transformers. Trainium will also support scale-out distributed training with ultra-high-speed connectivity between accelerators.
Despite advancements is Amazon chasing to keep up?
Amazon is racing to catch up with Microsoft and Google in the field of generative AI, which is a branch of AI that can create new content or data from existing data. Generative AI can be used for applications such as natural language generation, image and video synthesis, text summarization, and personalization.
AI models from Amazon
Titan: This is a family of large language models (LLMs). Titan models can generate natural language texts for various domains and tasks, such as conversational agents, document summarization, product reviews, and more. Titan models are trained on a large and diverse corpus of text data from various sources, such as books, news articles, social media posts, and product descriptions.
Powerful chips for artificial intelligence (AI)
Bedrock: This is a service that Amazon created to help developers enhance their software using generative AI. Bedrock provides access to pre-trained Titan models and tools to customize them for specific use cases. Bedrock also allows developers to deploy their generative AI applications on AWS using Inferentia or Trainium chips.
Generative AI
Amazon’s CEO, Andy Jassy in the past said he thought of generative AI as having three macro layers: the compute, the models, and the applications. He said that Amazon is investing heavily in all three layers and that its custom chips are a key part of its strategy to provide high-performance and low-cost compute for generative AI. He also said that Amazon is not used to chasing markets but creating them, and that he believes Amazon has the best platform for generative AI in the world.
Inferentia and Trainium, offer AWS customers an alternative to training their large language models on Nvidia GPUs, which have been getting difficult and expensive to procure.
‘The entire world would like more chips for doing generative AI, whether that’s GPUs or whether that’s Amazon’s own chips that we’re designing’, Amazon Web Services CEO Adam Selipsky is reported to have said. ‘I think that we’re in a better position than anybody else on Earth to supply the capacity that our customers collectively are going to want’.
Fast actors
Yet others have acted faster, and invested more, to capture business from the generative AI boom. When OpenAI launched ChatGPT in November 2022, Microsoft gained widespread attention for hosting the chatbot, and investing a reportedly whopping $13 billion in OpenAI. It was quick to add the generative AI models to its own products, incorporating them into Bing in February 2023.
That same month, Google launched its own large language model, Bard, followed by a $300 million investment in OpenAI rival Anthropic.
AI Chat Bot robot
It wasn’t until April 2023 that Amazon announced its own family of large language models, called Titan, along with a service called Bedrock to help developers enhance software using generative AI.
Amazon is not used to chasing markets. Amazon is used to creating markets. And for the first time for some time, they find themselves on the back foot and working to play catch up.
And Meta?
Meta also recently released its own LLM, Llama 2. The open-source ChatGPT rival is now available for people to test on Microsoft’s Azure public cloud.
U.K. economy beat expectations with 0.2% growth in the second quarter, boosted by household consumption and manufacturing output, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.
Economists had expected U.K. GDP to level off in the second quarter, after a surprise increase of 0.1% in the first quarter, as the Bank of England’s monetary policy tightening took effect and as persistent inflation began to slow consumer demand.
The economy expanded by 0.5% in June 2023, beating a forecast of 0.2% growth. It follows monthly GDP growth of 0.1% in May and 0.2% in April. However, the strength of the June rise was partially attributed to warm weather, as well as the additional public holiday in May to celebrate the coronation of King Charles III.
Better than expected
GDP was lifted by 1.6% growth in manufacturing and 0.7% in production in the second quarter, while services grew by 0.1%.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) noted strong growth in household and government consumption in terms of expenditure. Both faced price pressures in the quarter, though this moderated from the previous three-month period.
Growth in June 2023 was stronger than expected at 0.5%
Growth in June 2023 was stronger than expected at 0.5%, showing a recovery when the economy lost one working day due to the national holiday in May. June’s warm weather also benefited the construction industry as well as pubs and restaurants. But the economy was impacted by strike action by NHS workers, doctors, railway unions and teachers. However, the figures for the three months and June in particular were better-than-expected.
What does it mean?
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the most important tools for looking at the health of the economy, and is watched closely by the government and businesses. If the figure is increasing, that means the economy is growing and people are doing more work and getting a little bit richer, on average.
But if GDP is falling, then the economy is shrinking which can be bad news for businesses. If GDP falls for two quarters in a row, it is typically defined as a recession.
U.S. consumer prices rose a mild 0.2% in July, but the rate of inflation rose for the first time in more than in a year in a sign it’s going to take a while to get the cost of living fully under control. But a steady slowdown in inflation over the past year could keep the Federal Reserve on the sidelines when officials consider whether to raise interest rates again at their next meeting in September.
The yearly rate of inflation, rose to 3.2% from to 3% in the prior month. It’s the first increase in 13 months, though inflation has eased considerably since hitting a 40-year high of 9.1% in 2022. The core rate of inflation, which omits volatile food and energy costs, also rose 0.2% last month.
The increase in core inflation over the past year slowed slightly to 4.7% from 4.8%. That’s the lowest rate in almost two years. The Fed doesn’t ignore food and energy prices, but the central bank views the core rate as a better predictor of inflation trends. Even so, the core rate of inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal.
Rapid rate rise
Over the past year the U.S. central bank has been raising interest rates rapidly to try to slow the economy and dampen inflation, but it’s unclear if the Fed will continue to do so at its next meeting in September 2023. Financial markets put the odds close to zero.
Inflation has slowed sharply in the first half of 2023, but further gains this year are unlikely to come as easy. U.S. gas (petrol) prices are on the rise again. U.S. rent and house prices are still going up. And labour costs are increasing more than 4% a year, making it harder for the Fed to achieve its inflation target.
Robust economy
The U.S. economy, for its part, is still expanding at a surprisingly robust pace. Strong consumer demand could keep prices elevated, especially for popular services such as hotel rentals, dining out and entertainment.
Whether inflation is still rising too fast for the Fed to necessate another rate hike in September remains to be seen, for now.
The UK’s elections watchdog has revealed it has been the victim of a complex cyber-attack potentially affecting millions of voters.
The Electoral Commission said unspecified ‘hostile actors‘ had managed to gain access to copies of the electoral registers, from August 2021. Note the word ‘unspecified’ is used – do they even know?
Hackers also broke into its emails and “control systems” but the attack was not discovered until October last year. The watchdog has warned people to watch out for unauthorised use of their data.
The commission said hackers accessed copies of the registers it was holding for research purposes, and for conducting checks on political donors. The commission knew which of its systems were accessible to the hackers, but could not ‘conclusively‘ identify which files may have been accessed.
‘Very sophisticated’ attack
The personal data held on the registers – name and address – did not itself present a ‘high risk‘ to individuals, it added, although it is possible it could be combined with other public information to ‘identify and profile individuals’.
It has not said when the hackers’ access to its systems was stopped, but said they were secured as soon as possible after the attack was identified in October 2022. Why was it left so long to be made public and how long did it take to make systems secure again?
Explaining why it had not made the attack public before now, the commission said it first needed to stop the hackers’ access, examine the extent of the incident and put additional security measures in place.Defending the delay, commission chair John Pullinger said: “If you go public on a vulnerability before you have sealed it off, then you are risking more vulnerabilities.” He is reported to have said the ‘very sophisticated attack involved using software to try and get in and evade our systems’. Well, that clearly worked then.
The world of digital data
He reportedly said that the hackers were not able to alter or delete any information on the electoral registers themselves, which are maintained by registration officers around the country. Information about donations and loans to political parties and registered campaigners is held in a system that is not affected by this incident, the notice added. He understood public concern, and would like to apologise to those affected.
Steps
The commission added that it had taken steps to secure its systems against future attacks, including by updating its login requirements, alert system and firewall policies. The Information Commissioner’s Office, which is responsible for data protection in the UK, said it was urgently investigating.
Labour’s deputy leader Angela Rayner reportedly said: ‘This serious incident must be fully and thoroughly investigated so lessons can be learned‘. Why wouldn’t it be investigated? I dislike it immensely when clueless politicians roll out this ‘standard remark’ as an attempt to demonstrate they ‘know what’s going on’.
Then what? It happens again and we have to… learn more lessons…?
Americans are using their credit cards more than ever, pushing the total balance to over $1 trillion for the first time in history, according to a report from the New York Federal Reserve.
The report, released August 2023, showed that credit card balances rose by $45 billion to $1.03 trillion in the second quarter of 2023, reflecting robust consumer spending as well as higher prices due to inflation. The increase was the largest quarterly gain since 2008 and surpassed the previous record of $1.02 trillion set in 2019.
The rise in credit card debt also coincided with a higher payment failure rate, which measures the share of borrowers who are at least 30 days behind on their payments. The failure measure climbed to 7.2% in the second quarter, up from 6.5% in the first quarter and the highest level since 2012.
The New York Fed reportedly said that the increase in failure rates may reflect a normalization to pre-pandemic levels, as many lenders offered relief programs and forbearance options to borrowers during the Covid-19 crisis. However, some analysts warned that the high level of credit card debt could pose a risk to the financial stability of households and the economy if interest rates rise or incomes fall.
Expensive debt
Credit card debt is one of the most expensive forms of debt, and it can quickly spiral out of control if not managed. ‘Consumers should aim to pay off their balances in full every month, or at least pay more than the minimum due, to avoid paying unnecessary interest and fees.
The burden of debt is all to consuming!
Interest rates and fees on credit cards are one of the highest payable and if you fall into the debt spiral it can be almost impossible to liberate yourself from that consuming debt.
Younger users
The New York Fed also noted that credit card usage has become more widespread among Americans, especially among younger and lower-income borrowers. The share of adults with at least one credit card increased from 76% in 2019 to 79% in 2021, while the share of those with four or more cards rose from 18% to 21% over the same period.
Tool
The report suggested that credit cards have become an essential tool for many consumers to access credit and smooth purchases over time, especially during periods of economic uncertainty and volatility. However, it also cautioned that credit cards can also lead to overborrowing and financial distress if not used responsibly.
It is one of the most expensive ways to borrow money and far too easy to access.
