Observe. Think. Chat. Do. Trade. Repeat…
In an announcement Monday 30th October 2023, the U.S. Treasury Department said it will be looking to borrow $776 billion.
The Treasury said it expects to borrow $816 billion between January and March 2024.
The announcement comes 10 days after the government said the fiscal 2023 budget deficit would be about $1.7 trillion.
According to the U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data, the national debt of the United States was $33.52 trillion as of 23rd October 2023.
If the Israel-Hamas conflict further intensifies, the risks to the global economy are growing, economist Mohamed el-Erian reportedly said Monday 30th October 2023.
The impact on global markets was initially limited, as investors viewed the conflict as contained. However, the prospect of a regional spillover has added to a sense of unease.
‘The longer this conflict goes on, the more likely it will escalate. The higher the risk of escalation, the higher the risk of contagion to the rest of the world in terms of economics and finance’, el-Erian said.
The U.K. government has recently announced its plans to regulate the crypto industry with formal legislation by 2024. The government aims to protect consumers and grow the economy by ensuring robust, transparent, and fair standards for crypto activities. Some of the proposed measures include:
Regulating a broad suite of crypto activities, such as trading, lending, and custody services.
Strengthening rules for crypto trading platforms and requiring them to have admission and disclosure documents.
Introducing a crypto market abuse regime to prevent manipulation and fraud.
Enhancing oversight of stablecoins, which are digital tokens pegged to fiat currencies or other assets.
The government’s consultation paper is open for feedback until January 31, 2024.
The government said it is committed to embracing technological change and innovation, while mitigating the most significant risks posed by crypto-assets.
This was the fastest quarterly advance in nearly two years, driven by robust consumer spending, increased inventories, exports, residential investment and government spending.
The U.S. economy faced several challenges in the third quarter, such as high interest rates, inflation pressures, and global headwinds, but still managed to overcome them and show strong growth.
However, some analysts expect a slowdown in the fourth quarter and in early 2024, especially if the Federal Reserve implements another interest rate hike and the housing market remains sluggish and if consumer spending shows signs of slowing.
The GDP report also showed that inflation rose 3.7% in September 2023, down from 9.1% in June, but still above the Fed’s 2% target. The Fed is expected to keep its policy tight and may announce a tapering of its bond-buying program next week.
A correction is a term used to describe a decline of 10% or more from a recent peak in the price of an asset. The Nasdaq entered correction territory on Wednesday 25th October 2023, as it closed at 12,922, which was 10% lower than its previous high of 14,358 on 19th July 2023.
The main reason for the Nasdaq’s correction is believed to be the rise in long-term Treasury yields, which increased the borrowing costs for companies and reduced the attractiveness of growth stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.95% on Wednesday 25th October 2023, the highest level since June 2021. Higher interest rates also make future earnings for tech companies much more difficult.
Another factor that contributed to the Nasdaq’s correction was the disappointing third-quarter earnings reports from some of the biggest tech companies, such as Alphabet (Google), Amazon, and Meta (Facebook fame).
These companies reported lower-than-expected revenue growth, profit margins, and cloud computing performance, which weighed on their stock prices and dragged down the Nasdaq. Investors expect more, especially with AI – now the new kid-on-the-block.
The Nasdaq’s correction has raised concerns among investors about the outlook for the tech sector and the broader stock market. However, some analysts have argued that the correction could be a healthy and temporary adjustment that creates buying opportunities for long-term investors.
They have pointed out that the Nasdaq is still up 22.5% year-to-date as of Wednesday 25th October 2023, and that the fundamentals of the tech industry remain strong despite the challenges posed by inflation, regulation, yields and competition.
The inflation rate in Argentina is extremely high and has surpassed 100% for the first time since the early 1990’s. The inflation rate for consumer prices in Argentina was 138.28% in September 2023, based on the CPI values for the last 12 months.
This means that the prices of many goods and services have more than doubled since 2022. The main factors that contributed to this increase were the rise in food prices, especially meat, due to adverse weather conditions and a drought, as well as the economic difficulties and policy divisions that have plagued the country for years.
Argentina has been receiving bailout funds from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but it has not been able to contain inflation, which has eroded the purchasing power of many people and pushed them into poverty.
The inflation rate in Argentina is one of the highest in the world and has a negative impact on its economic growth and social stability.
Argentina is the second largest country in South America, the fourth largest in the Americas, and the eighth largest in the world.
The Fed and other central banks insisted that inflation would be ‘transitory’ – it wasn’t. It reached 7%. That’s 5% above the target of 2%.
Along with the misdiagnosis on prices, Fed officials, according to projections released in March 2022, collectively saw the key interest rate rising to just 2.8% by the end of 2023. It is now 5.25%.
The Fed failed to prevent the collapse of the banking system and the contraction of the money supply in the late 1920s and early 1930s, which worsened the economic downturn and prolonged the recovery. The Fed also raised interest rates in 1931 and 1932, which further depressed economic activity and deflation.
The Great Depression (1929–1939) was an economic bomb that affected countries across the world. It was a period of severe economic depression after a major fall in stock prices in the United States. It began around September 1929 and led to the Wall Street stock market crash on 24th October 1929 (Black Thursday). See Wikipedia article here.
It was the longest, deepest, and most widespread depression of the 20th century.
The Fed pursued an overly expansionary monetary policy in the 1960s and 1970s, which fueled high inflation and eroded the value of the dollar. The Fed also underestimated the impact of oil shocks and other supply shocks on inflation and was slow to tighten monetary policy to restore price stability. The Fed eventually raised interest rates sharply in the late 1970s and early 1980s, which triggered a severe recession. And in1991 inflation surged to 8.5%.
The Fed likely contributed to the build-up of financial imbalances and excessive risk-taking in the 2000s, (Dotcom bubble) – by keeping interest rates too low for too long and by failing to adequately supervise and regulate the financial system.
The Fed also reacted too slowly to the emerging signs of distress in the housing market and the financial sector and was unprepared for the global financial crisis that erupted in 2008. Remember, ‘sub-prime’ lending. We can see signs of similar stress in the U.S. car loan market now.
The Fed had to resort to unconventional monetary policy tools, such as quantitative easing and forward guidance, to stimulate the economy and prevent deflation.
The Fed and other central banks including the Bank of England initially underestimated the severity and duration of the pandemic and its impact on the economy. The Fed also overestimated the transitory nature of inflation, which surged to a 30-year high in 2021 due to supply chain disruptions, pent-up demand, fiscal stimulus, and base effects. The Fed maintained an ultra-accommodative monetary policy stance for too long, despite mounting evidence of overheating and inflationary pressures.
The Fed finally raised interest rates by 0.75% in December 2022, but faced criticism for being behind the curve and for communicating poorly with the markets.
The Fed said inflation would be transitory in 2021 and 2022. The Fed used this term to describe the higher-than-normal prices that emerged during the Covid-19 economic crisis, which were expected to be temporary and not part of a long-term trend. The Fed attributed the inflation surge to factors such as supply chain bottlenecks, pent-up demand, fiscal stimulus, and base effects.
The Fed also said that it would let inflation run above its 2% target for some time, to achieve an average inflation rate of 2% over time. However, as inflation remained high and persistent in 2021 and 2022, the Fed faced criticism for being behind the curve and for communicating poorly with the markets. The Fed eventually raised interest rates.
And now, much of the same. The Fed is again ‘tinkering’ with policy to manage ‘transitory’ inflation and will most probably engineer a recession as a result.
Enough said.
According to the U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data, the national debt of the United States was $33.52 trillion as of 23rd October 2023.
This includes both the debt held by the public, which is the amount the federal government owes to outside entities such as foreign governments, corporations, and individuals, and the debt held by federal government accounts, which is the amount the federal government owes to itself, such as trust funds and special funds.
Some argue that the U.S. debt is a problem because it increases the risk of a fiscal crisis, reduces the government’s ability to respond to emergencies, imposes a burden on future generations, and lowers the nation’s creditworthiness.
Others contend that the U.S. debt is not a problem because the U.S. can always print more money, (isn’t this why there is so much debt already)? Borrow at low interest rates, (not easy in the current climate), stimulate economic growth, and benefit from its status as the world’s reserve currency.
So, is U.S. debt a problem or not? It depends on various factors such as the size, composition, and sustainability of the debt, as well as the economic and political context in which it operates.
Most analysts and policymakers agree that the U.S. debt is projected to grow faster than the economy in the long-term, which could pose significant challenges for fiscal policy and economic stability. Therefore, it is important to understand the causes and consequences of the U.S. debt and to find solutions that balance the trade-offs between spending and income.
The U.S. debt of GDP was estimated to be around 120% to 130% in 2023.
The U.S. debt of GDP is the ratio of the total public debt of the United States to its gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the size of the economy.
The 10-year Treasury yield is one of the most important indicators of the state of the economy and the expectations of inflation and growth. On 23rd October 2023, the 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5% for the first time since 2007, as investors increasingly accepted that interest rates will stay higher for longer and that the U.S. government will further increase its borrowing to cover its deficits.
This is a significant milestone, as it reflects the market’s view that the Federal Reserve will maintain elevated interest rates to control inflation and that the U.S. economy will remain resilient despite the challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions and environmental issues.
The higher yield also means that the government will have to pay more to service its debt, which could affect its fiscal policy and spending priorities. The higher yield also affects other borrowing costs, such as mortgages, student loans, and corporate bonds, which could have implications for consumers and businesses.
The 10-year Treasury yield is influenced by many factors, such as supply and demand, inflation expectations, economic growth, monetary policy, and global events. The yield has been rising steadily since it hit a record low of 0.5% in March 2020, when the pandemic triggered a flight to safety and a massive stimulus from the Fed. Since then, the yield has been driven by the recovery of the economy, the surge in inflation, the reversal of the Fed’s bond-buying program, and the increase in the government’s borrowing needs.
The ten-year yield is closely watched by investors, analysts and policymakers as it provides a benchmark for valuing other assets and assessing the outlook for the economy. The yield is also used to calculate the yield curve, which is the difference between short-term and long-term Treasury yields.
The shape of the yield curve can indicate the market’s expectations of future interest rates and economic activity.
A steep yield curve means that long-term yields are much higher than short-term yields, which suggests that investors expect higher inflation and growth in the future. A flat or inverted yield curve means that long-term yields are lower than or equal to short-term yields, which implies that investors expect lower inflation and growth or even a recession.
The current yield curve is steepening, as long-term yields are rising faster than short-term yields. This indicates that investors are anticipating higher inflation and growth in the long run, but also that they are concerned about the sustainability of the government’s fiscal position and the impact of higher interest rates on the economy.
The 10-year Treasury yield is an important indicator of the state of the economy and the expectations of inflation and growth. It has reached a level that has not been seen since before the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. This reflects the market’s view that interest rates will stay higher for longer and that the government will increase its borrowing to cover its deficits. The higher yield also affects other borrowing costs and asset prices, which could have implications for consumers and businesses.
The yield is influenced by many factors and is closely watched by investors, policymakers, and analysts. A 5% yield is a worry for the market, inflation, interest rates, geo-political risks and recession are the others, that’s enough!
The earnings report showed that Tesla missed analysts’ expectations on revenue and earnings per share. Tesla also announced a recall of 475,000 vehicles in the US due to a potential battery fire risk.
Additionally, Tesla faced regulatory challenges in China, where it was banned from selling its AI chips due to national security concerns. These factors contributed to the negative sentiment around Tesla stock and increased its volatility.
Tesla stock has fallen 73% from its record high in November 2021. The stock is down 69% in 2022, more than double the decline in the Nasdaq.
Among major carmakers, Ford is down 46% and General Motors has fallen 43%. Since its IPO in 2010, Tesla has only fallen in one other year, an 11% drop in 2016. Some analysts and investors are still optimistic about Tesla’s long-term prospects, citing its innovation, leadership, and loyal customer base.
However, others are sceptical about Tesla’s valuation, profitability, and competition. Tesla’s stock performance in the coming months will depend on how it can overcome its current challenges and deliver on growth.
Don’t underestimate Elon Musk, but bear in mind other big car manufacturers are now catching and moving ahead of Tesla in the EV race.
It recently upgraded the UK’s credit outlook from negative to stable, citing policy predictability, softer EU trade stance, and tax reversals.
This means that Moody’s expects the UK to have a lower risk of defaulting on its debts and to have a more stable economic outlook. Moody’s also noted some challenges for the UK, such as low growth prospects, high inflation, and the need for large investments in water and energy sectors.
It follows S&P, which dropped its negative outlook in April this year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is one of the most widely followed stock market indices in the world. It tracks the performance of 30 large U.S. companies from various sectors, such as Boeing, Coca-Cola, Apple and Walmart.
The DJIA is often used as a proxy for the overall health of the U.S. economy and investor sentiment.
Lately, the DJIA has been under pressure as U.S. Treasury yields have climbed to their highest levels in over sixteen years.
Treasury yields are the interest rates that the U.S. government pays to borrow money by issuing bonds. When Treasury yields rise, it means that investors are demanding higher returns to lend money to the government, which reflects their expectations of higher inflation and economic growth.
Higher Treasury yields can have a negative impact on the stock market for several reasons. Firstly, they increase the borrowing costs for companies and consumers, which can affect spending and profits.
Secondly, they make bonds more attractive as an alternative investment to stocks, which can reduce the demand for equities.
Thirdly, they can signal that the Federal Reserve may tighten its monetary policy sooner than expected, which can also dampen the stock market’s momentum.
The DJIA has fallen by more than 300 points in recent days as Treasury yields climbed above 5%, a level not seen since 2007. The rise in yields was driven by strong economic data, such as the September 2023 consumer price index (CPI), which showed that inflation remained elevated at 3.7% year-over-year. But only 1.7% off the Fed target of 2%.
The S&P 500 lost 1.26% to 4,224. The Nasdaq dropped 1.53% to 12,984. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 287 points, or 0.86%, to end at 33,127.28.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury crossed 5% for the first time in 16 years on Thursday 19th October 2023, a level that could easily spread through the economy by raising rates on mortgages, credit cards, vehicle loans and more. It retreated slightly from this value on Friday 20th October 2023.
Not to mention, it offers investors an attractive alternative to stocks.
The average rate on the U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 8% on Wednesday 18th October 2023, according recently released data. That is the highest level since 2000.
The unwelcome milestone came as bond yields soared to levels not seen since 2007. Mortgage rates follow the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury.
Rates climbed sharply in the last two weeks, as investors digested more economic data. On Wednesday 18th October 2023 it was housing starts, which rose in September 2023, although not as much as expected, according to the U.S. data.
Building permits, an indicator of future construction, fell but by a less than expected. Last week, retail sales came in far higher than expected, creating more uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s long-term plan.
The higher rates have caused mortgage demand to plummet, as applications fell nearly 7% last week from the previous week.
The average rate on the 30-year fixed was as low as 3% just two years ago. To put it in perspective, a buyer purchasing a $400,000 home with a 20% cash deposit would have a payment increase of nearly $12,000 per year more than it would have been two years ago.
It was the first time Tesla, co-founded by Elon Musk, missed on both earnings and revenue since Q2 2019.
On Thursday morning, Hong Kong-listed shares of Chinese EV makers BYD and Xpeng fell approximately 2.18% and 8.76%. Li Auto slid 3.14%, while Nio and Geely dropped 8.36% and 3.97%.
Elon Musk reportedly cautioned that the Tesla Cybertruck, the electric full-size pickup truck model; would not deliver substantial positive cashflow for 12-18 months after production begins.
Musk reportedly said the company is working to bring down the prices of its cars amid high interest rates. ‘I’m worried about the high interest rate environment we’re in,’ he said, adding that it will be much harder for consumers to purchase cars if interest rates were to increase further.
Tesla shares closed 4.78% lower on Wednesday 17th October 2023. Other U.S. EV rivals Lucid and Rivian fell more than 9% on the same day. Lucid’s stock dropped a day earlier after it reported disappointing Q3 EV deliveries.
In the first six months of the year, BYD was the world’s top EV manufacturer, contributing 21% of global sales of EVs, according to research firm Canalys. Tesla trailed behind at second place with 15% market share while German carmaker Volkswagen held 7% market share in third place.
EV players are under pressure from a price war to gain market share amid intense competition.
Tesla introduced a number of price cuts over the last few months, especially in China – the world’s biggest EV market.
Rivals BYD, Nio, Li Auto and Xpeng have also joined Tesla in lowering the prices for some of their EV models.
Shares in BYD, (Build Your Dreams), jumped this week after it said it expected third-quarter profits to more than double compared with last year.
BYD is now ahead of Tesla in quarterly production – and second to the U.S. car maker in global sales.
The U.S. reportedly announced new restrictions on exports of advanced chips to China, including two made-for-China chips from Nvidia.
U.S. chip stocks fell as the curbs also hit Advanced Micro Devices and Intel.
The curbs are aimed at closing loopholes that became apparent after the U.S. announced export curbs on microchips in October 2022. The restrictions are designed to prevent China’s military from importing advanced semiconductors or equipment.
Nvidia has said in a filing that the new export restrictions will block sales of two high-end artificial intelligence chips it created for the Chinese market – A800 and H800. It said that one of its gaming chips will also be blocked.
Although the curbs also affect other chip makers, analysts believe Nvidia will be hit the hardest because China accounts for up to 25% of its revenues from data centre chip sales. Nvidia’s shares, which are considered a star stock, fell by as much as 4.7% in the wake of the announcement.
The Semiconductor Industry Association, which represents 99% of the U.S. semiconductor industry by revenue, said in a statement that the new measures are ‘overly broad‘ and ‘risk harming the U.S. semiconductor structure without advancing national security as they encourage overseas customers to source elsewhere’.
A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy also said that it ‘firmly opposes‘ the new restrictions, which also target Iran and Russia and go into effect in 30 days.
Two months ago, China retaliated by restricting exports of two materials, gallium and germanium, which are key to the semiconductor industry.
The materials are ‘minor metals‘, meaning that they are not usually found on their own in nature, and are often the by-product of other processes. It’s not only the U.S., Japan and the Netherlands – which is home to key chip equipment maker ASML – have also imposed chip technology export restrictions on China.
The constant ‘fall-out’ between the world’s two biggest economies has raised concerns over the rise of so-called ‘resource nationalism‘ – a practice where governments hoard critical materials to exert influence over other countries.
The UK rate of inflation is stuck at 6.7% for September 2023, the same rate as August 2023, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
It means prices are still rising at the same rate as the previous month.
Petrol and diesel costs kept inflation up, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) says, but food and non-alcoholic drink prices fell for the first time since September 2021.
Milk, cheese and eggs are among the products that went down the most; the price of household appliances and airfares fell to.
In response to the latest figures, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said, ‘inflation rarely falls in a straight line’. He pledged to stick to the government’s promise to get the main rate of inflation down to 5% by the end of the year.
Thank you for that enlightening comment, Mr Hunt. May I remind you that even if you hit the target the government set of 5% by the end of the year; inflation will still be a whopping 3% above the Bank of England (BoE) original target!
Come on – get your act together! You really should have prepared batter and seen this coming.
Rolls-Royce, the British manufacturer of aircraft engines, amongst many other products announced on Tuesday 16th October 2023, that it plans to axe up to 2,500 jobs worldwide. The company said that the decision is part of its plans for a simpler, more streamlined, and more efficient organisation.
The job cuts are expected to affect mostly non-engineering roles across its global operations, and are likely to impact UK staff.
The restructuring is one of the most significant steps taken by the new chief executive, who took over at the start of the year.
He has described the company as ‘a burning platform‘ and said one of its main subsidiaries had been ‘grossly mismanaged‘.
The news comes as Rolls-Royce faces a challenging business environment due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which severely affected the aviation industry.
The company has already cut 9,000 jobs and raised capital from shareholders during the crisis. However, its share price has recovered in the last year, thanks to a resurgence in aviation demand and the early results of its transformation plan.
The company, which makes engines for aircraft, is based in Derby. It employs 42,000 people around the world with about half based in the UK.
It employs 13,700 people in Derby, and a further 3,400 people in Bristol.
Rolls-Royce is a company that does more than just making aircraft engines. It also develops and delivers complex power and propulsion solutions for safety-critical applications in the air, sea and on land.
Pioneering innovation for sustainable flight. Pushing the boundaries of possibility for large commercial and business aviation engines, delivering new levels of efficiency and sustainability, supported by flexible and innovative services that maximise aircraft availability.
Protecting our planet and exploring the universe. Market leaders in military air and naval power solutions, and supplier of nuclear propulsion for all UK Royal Navy submarines. They also provide maintenance, repair, overhaul, helicopter services, and customer training.
Futuristic concept projects are also under potential development such as the ‘drone’ ship.
Powering sustainability in propulsion and energy. Their MTU brand products contribute to the energy transition – as emergency power supplies for safety-critical installations and as integrated propulsion systems for ships and heavy land vehicles.
Clean, sustainable, safe and silent. Leaders in advancing all-electric and hybrid-electric power and propulsion systems, focused on the opportunities offered by the net zero transition for the Advanced Air Mobility Market and beyond. They develop complete power and propulsion systems for all-electric and hybrid-electric applications.
Rolls-Royce is developing a nuclear power plant system called the Small Modular Reactor (SMR). It is a type of pressurised water reactor (PWR) that can generate up to 470 megawatts of electricity, enough to power a million homes. The SMR is designed to be factory-built, modular, scalable, and cost-competitive. It can also support various applications such as grid and industrial electricity production, hydrogen and synthetic fuel manufacturing, and desalination.
Rolls-Royce has been a nuclear reactor plant designer since the start of the UK nuclear submarine programme in the 1950s. The company has experience in developing PWRs for the Royal Navy’s submarines, such as the PWR1 and PWR2 series. The SMR is a new generation of PWR that aims to meet the global demand for clean and reliable energy sources.
The SMR project is supported by the UK government, which has allocated £215 million for its development.
Rolls-Royce has also shortlisted six sites for a major new factory building nuclear reactors, which could create up to 6,000 jobs in the UK.
The company expects to have its first SMR operational by the early 2030s.
The chief executive of JP Morgan Chase told investors recently that he was concerned about the risks to the economy from rising geo-political tensions. He said wars in Ukraine and Israel could hit energy and food prices, and global trade.
Thousands have been killed in Israel and Gaza after an unprecedented attack by Palestinian militant group Hamas. Mr Dimon, who leads America’s biggest bank, was speaking as the firm revealed its latest quarterly results.
The bank reported $13 billion (£10.7 billion) in profit over the three months to September 2023, up 35% from the same period in 2022.
Dimon said the bank had benefited from U.S. households and business in healthy financial shape but warned that he remained cautious about the state of the global economy, given the many risks emerging. What about the effect of interest rate increases on profits the bank has benefitted from too?
‘My caution is that we are facing so many uncertainties out there,‘ he reportedly said. So helpful Mr. Dimon. He told investors they should be prepared to face higher interest rates, persistent inflation, as well as fallout from the violent conflicts.
I wouldn’t necessarily call his comments very intuitive – interest, inflation and conflict is there for all to see.
Shame he didn’t use his super magical powers of detection to get ahead of the inflation problem earlier.
A rise in the cost of borrowing comes at a difficult time for the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, as he prepares for the autumn statement on 22nd November 2023. The chancellor has already made clear that tax cuts will not be announced in the autumn statement.
The total amount the UK government owes is called the national debt and it is currently about £2.59 trillion – £2,590,000,000,000.
The government borrows money by selling financial products called bonds. A bond is a promise to pay money in the future. Most require the borrower to make regular interest payments over the bond’s lifetime.
UK government bonds – known as ‘gilts’ – are normally considered very safe, with little risk the money will not be repaid. Gilts are mainly bought by financial institutions in the UK and abroad, such as pension funds, investment funds, banks and insurance companies.
The Bank of England (BoE) has also bought hundreds of billions of pounds’ worth of government bonds in the past to support the economy, through a process called quantitative easing or QE.
A higher rate of interest on government debt will mean the chancellor will have to set aside more cash, to the tune of £23 billion to meet interest payments to the owners of bonds. This in-turn means the UK government may choose to spend less money on public services like healthcare and schools at a time when workers in key industries are demanding pay rises to match the cost of living.
The current level of debt is more than double what was seen from the 1980s through to the financial crisis of 2008. The combination of the financial crash in 2007/8 and the Covid pandemic pushed the UK’s debt up from those historic lows to where it stands now. However, in relation to the size of the economy, today’s debt is still low compared with much of the last century.
The U.S, German and Italian borrowing costs also hit their highest levels for more than a decade as markets adjusted to the prospect of a long period of high interest rates and the need for governments around the world to borrow.
It follows an indication from global central banks, including the United States Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE), that interest rates will stay ‘higher for longer’ to continue their jobs of bringing down inflation.
During the last financial year, the government spent £111 billion on debt interest – more than it spent on education. Some economists fear the government is borrowing too much, at too great a cost. Others argue extra borrowing helps the economy grow faster – generating more tax revenue in the long run.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), has warned that public debt could soar as the population ages and tax income falls. In an ageing population, the proportion of people of working age drops, meaning the government takes less in tax while paying out more in pensions, welfare and healthcare services.
U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.2% in August, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported Thursday 12th October 2023, slightly recovering from a downwardly revised 0.6% contraction in July 2023.
Services output was the main contributor to growth in August 2023, adding 0.4% on the month to offset a fall in production output of 0.7% and a decline in construction output by 0.5%.
This data shows early signs of a cooldown in the labour market and thus, lower inflation further down the economic road.
The data and outlook for the Bank of England (BoE) suggests that Bank rate increases do not have much upside from here and will most likely remain at current levels, but for a longer period.
The UK economy returning to growth in August 2023 has re-kindled expectations that interest rates will be left unchanged again in Novemeber 2023.
The economy grew marginally by 0.2% in August following a sharp fall in July 2023.
Wholesale U.S. prices rose more than expected in September 2023, according to latest data released indicating that inflation remains a problem for the U.S. economy.
The producer price index (PPI), which measures costs for finished goods that producers pay, increased 0.5% for the month, higher than estimated for a 0.3% rise, the U.S. Labor Department reported Wednesday 11th October 2023.
Excluding food and energy, core PPI was up 0.3%, versus the forecast for 0.2%.
The IMF believes Bank of England rates will peak at 6% and stay around 5% until 2028. Rates are currently 5.25%.
Buying the dip means purchasing an asset, usually a stock, when its price has dropped. The expectation is that the drop is a short-term anomaly, and the asset’s price will soon go back up. It is a strategy that some traders and investors use to take advantage of price fluctuations and profit from market rebounds.
However, buying the dip can also be risky, as there is no guarantee that the price will recover or that the asset is not in a long-term downtrend. Therefore, it is important to do your research, use indicators, and have a risk management plan before buying the dip.
The S&P 500 is still ‘buy the dip’ for the next six months,’ some analysts suggest.
In some reports, it is expected that the profit cycle will be positive over the next six months and for data to improve before a consumer-spending led downturn leads to a selloff in U.S. stocks! That’s the ‘general’ readout.
Corporate profit expectations are behind much of that forecast for stocks. Analysts expect profit growth to accelerate over the next two quarters and see the S&P 500 in a range of 4,050 to 4,750. A mild recession in early or middle 2024 should lead to a higher risk premium, pushing the S&P 500 back close to 3,800. This is all conjecture.
Other analysts doubt the earnings uplift potential and anticipate stocks to fall back sooner as PE ratios sit at an already high level.
My view, for what it’s worth, is for stocks to climb for the time being through into the New Year and then to face pullback.
Truth is, no one knows. We can all make educated guesses.
Just watch the markets and be ready for the fall – that is coming for sure!
The UK covid fraud amount is not a single figure, but rather a sum of various losses due to fraud and error across different government schemes and programmes.
£21bn of public money lost in fraud since COVID pandemic began and most will never be recovered.
£34.5m stolen in pandemic scams by more than 6,000 cases of Covid-related fraud and cyber-crime.
£16bn lost due to fraud and error in Covid loans schemes.
£4.5bn in Covid-19 support lost to error and fraud since 2020.
These figures are based on the reports and audits by the National Audit Office, the Action Fraud team, the HMRC, and other sources. However, they may not reflect the full extent of the problem, as some fraud cases may not be reported or detected.
The UK government has taken some measures to tackle fraud and recover the losses, such as creating the Public Sector Fraud Authority, the taxpayer protection taskforce, and the Dedicated Card and Payment Crime Unit.
The incompetence shown by the UK government is utterly breathtaking.
The U.S. economy added 336,000 jobs in September 2023, the Labour Department said. Economists expected 170,000 jobs.
Stocks posted a surprise turnaround on Friday, 6th October 2023 after initially falling on a hotter-than-expected jobs report. At its session low, the Dow had fallen some 270 points, then surged by more than 400 points at in intraday trading. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 also lost ground too only but then quickly recovered the losses.
Traders were unclear as to the reason for the intraday reversal. Some noted it could be the softer wage number in the jobs report that made investors rethink their earlier bearish stance. Others noted the pullback in yields from the day’s highs.
The rally may just be because the market had been extremely oversold with the S&P 500 at one point in the week down more than 8% from its high earlier this year.
Yields initially surged after the report, with the 10-year Treasury rate trading near its highest level in 16 years. The benchmark rate later eased from those levels, but was still up around 6 basis points at 4.78%.
Extreme market movements maybe here for a while yet.
The U.S. economy added 336,000 jobs last month, much more than expected, despite the Federal Reserve’s struggle to cool the world’s largest economy.
The unemployment rate was 3.8%, in line with August 2023. The data lifted hopes that the central bank will manage to guide the U.S. economy to a ‘soft landing’, where a recession is avoided. Bear in mind the Fed were late in dealing with the initial rise in inflation – so this battle has become harder and prolonged.
The job gains were the largest monthly rise since January 2023, and almost twice what economists had anticipated. Government and healthcare added the most jobs. The labour market still appears solid.
However, not all indicators were positive. The ADP’s national employment report showed that private-sector employers added only 89,000 jobs in September, far fewer than expected. Some factors outside the Fed’s control, such as the autoworker strike and the threat of a government shutdown, could yet damage the U.S. economy.
The labour force participation rate also remained low at 63.2%, indicating that many workers have yet to return to the labour market since the Covid19 pandemic of 2020.