DeepSeek’s impact probably isn’t yet fully reflected in U.S. stocks
The ramifications of the Chinese startup DeepSeek, with its promise of delivering cheaper and more energy-efficient alternatives to harness artificial intelligence (AI), have yet to be fully reflected in U.S. equities.
If DeepSeek ends up delivering a less costly way forward – it will make it much easier and cheaper for smaller more typical companies to create AI ‘agents’ or AI opportunities for their businesses.
Under this scenario there will be ‘useful’ and meaningful benefits from DeepSeek that could bring huge earnings potential for a broader mix of companies beyond the current AI heavyweights through greater efficiencies and productivity from less-expensive AI solutions.
AI spending race
When DeepSeek’s chatbot launched earlier this month in the U.S., it shocked Wall Street, prompting a historic $600 billion one-day wipeout for AI chip developer Nvidia.
It also put huge sums being pledged for AI infrastructure by U.S. mega cap tech companies under a microscope. Rather than back down, the U.S. spending race has intensified.
- Meta’s Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg spoke a week ago of spending ‘hundreds of billions of dollars’ on AI infrastructure in the coming years, after pledging $60 billion to $65 billion on AI this year.
- Alphabet announced AI investment for 2025, a bigger figure than Wall Street was anticipating.
- Google forecast $75 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, a bigger figure than Wall Street was anticipating.
- Microsoft reported its cloud and AI spending grew 95% in its fiscal second quarter to $22.6 billion.
- Amazon has reported big AI investment too.
The spending frenzy on anything AI sends the market into a spin. How much more has to be spent before we see capital expenditures reduced or decrease is anyone’s guess right now – but current levels of AI expenditure are high, and returns will be expected.
“When is enough, enough?”
Or more to the point you might ask – when is ‘enough’ too much?
Fresh AI-spending commitments helped lift shares of Nvidia on while we saw a slump for Tesla shares in the week.
China this week saw the U.S. slap new 10% tariffs, while Canada and Mexico saw Trump threaten but delay 25% tariffs by 30 days. China retaliated in kind.
Catching up with the ‘Magnificent Seven’
Despite the high scrutiny on AI stocks, there is also much renewed focus from investors on other areas of the market.
There has been a bit of a rotation – while tech has been under pressure, defensive and rate-sensitive parts of the market have been gaining. This seems to be an emerging pattern.
But there should be reason for caution. For one thing, the growth rate of ‘Magnificent Seven’ earnings has been tailing off in recent quarters, especially since the group reached a 61% yearly rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 – the spend on AI investment has yet to fully appreciate the full return.
Forward analysts’ expectations have this percentage reportedly closer to 16% to 18% for the end of this year.
But that also would move the group closer to the roughly 12% to 13% yearly growth rate expected for the rest of the companies in the S&P 500 index, potentially making the high valuations of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ tougher to justify.
One of the most surprising things of the past couple of weeks, given the news around DeepSeek and shocks on the trade front, is the fact that stocks were still close to their all-time highs.
The market is pretty resilient right now, but tech stocks are sitting at a very high valuation – a pullback is due, even a correction (in my opinion).
The arrival of DeepSeek creates an alternative ‘cheaper’ AI option and that will unravel the status quo.
