Arm looking for up to $52 billion valuation in U.S. IPO

Arm Holdings

Chip design firm Arm on 5th September 2023 submitted an updated filing for its upcoming initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange, setting a price range between $47 and $51. Only 9.4% of Arm’s shares will be freely traded on the NYSE.

Arm was previously listed in London and New York, before SoftBank acquired it for $32 billion in 2016.

Chip design firm Arm on Tuesday is looking to acquire as much as $4.87 billion in its upcoming initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange, according to the new filing.

The deal could value the company at as much as $52 billion

As a British company, Arm qualifies as a foreign private issuer in the U.S. and its shares will count as American depositary shares, or ADS’s. It is reported that the company will list some 95.5 million ADS’s at a price range of between $47 and $51. At the upper end of that range it is estimated that Arm will likely raise up to $4.87 billion. At the lower end, the IPO would fetch $4.49 billion of fresh capital for Arm. It could do even better.

Institutional funds

When the company floats in New York, it will look to enjoy a very deep pool of professional institutional funds. Arm seeks to ramp up its investments in research and development, particularly as it pursues growth in the artificial intelligence (AI) space with some of its newer chips. The company recently released new chips specifically targeted at AI and machine learning use cases.

Arm AI chip
Arm seeks up to $52 billion valuation in U.S. IPO

Upper end

At the upper end of the pricing range, Arm would also touch a total valuation of $52 billion or more. Only 9.4% of Arm’s shares will be freely traded on the New York Stock Exchange, with SoftBank expected to own roughly 90.6% of the company’s outstanding shares after the completion of the IPO.

Arm’s listing is set to be the biggest technology IPO of the year. Investors are hoping that the listing could breathe new life into an IPO market that has been ‘slack’ since 2022.

250 billion chips globally

Arm says its energy-efficient processor designs and software platforms are integrated into more than 250 billion chips globally, into products ranging from sensors and smartphones to supercomputers.

The company estimates it enjoys approximately 48.9% share of the market for semiconductor design. Other players, such as Intel and AMD, have raced to catch up on designing their own chip architectures, but have struggled so far.

U.K. misses out… again

The U.K. government had originally hoped Arm would list on the London Stock Exchange, but the company instead dealt a major blow to Britain’s ambitions to become the leading global tech hub by opting for New York. The U.S. financial center has a deep institutional investor base and analysts who have a close understanding of the technology sector.

BIG interest

Chip design firm Arm said in a Tuesday filing that Apple, Google parent Alphabet, Nvidia and other technology companies are interested in buying up to $735 million in its shares as it seeks to go public on Nasdaq.

The investments might not happen, but the fact that these companies are considering them underlines the importance of Arm, whose designs are used for processors in data center servers, consumer devices and industrial products.

ARM chip
Arm chip – some 250 billion chips globally

Chip makers Intel, Samsung and TSMC are interested in investing alongside the three trillion-dollar technology companies, along with AMD and MediaTek, which make chip designs based on Arm architectures. Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys, which make electronic design automation software for processor development, have also expressed interest, according to a revised prospectus for Arm’s shares sale. This IPO could easily be the biggest of the 2023!

As part of the deal, Arm could wind up with a $52 billion market capitalization and almost $5 billion in new cash.

This is likely to be the biggest IPO of 2023

It is estimated that there will be about 19 billion devices using the Arm processor in the world by the end of 2023.

Arm target

The market share of Arm across different technology markets worldwide, which was 90% for mobile application processors, 34% for embedded computing, and 5% for data center and cloud in 2019. 

Arm has a target of increasing its market share to more than 90%, 50%, and 25% respectively by 2028.

This is funny!

Google cake

I asked the ChatGPT drawing tool Dall-E, to help me come up with a suitable birthday image to celebrate 25 years of Google.

My request was, ‘draw a watercolour image of a birthday cake with Google written on it‘. This was refused as the word ‘Google’ was an infringement of copyright law. So, I then asked, ‘draw a watercolour image of a birthday cake with BIG tech written on it…’

This is what I got…

ChatGPT’s offering of a Birthday cake image and message for Google celebrating 25 years…

Competitors

Now, now, ChatGPT! – I know you are competitors but…

When bad news is good news for U.S. stocks

Newsreader

With second-quarter earnings season now largely behind the U.S. market, stock investors have been focusing on the latest economic data and for the most part been reacting positively to bad economic news, or any data that may point to an economic slowdown. 

It’s been almost nine months since the trend emerged, as softening economic data and lower inflation may mean the Federal Reserve can stop raising interest rates.

Traders are reportedly pricing in an over 90% chance that the Fed will hold its policy interest rate unchanged at its September 2023 meeting, and a roughly 35% likelihood that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates by 0.25% in November 2023.

Fed policy weakening?

The Fed’s monetary policy has lost some of its potency and interest rates may need to rise as a result, economists say.

U.S. stocks closed higher ahead of the Labour Day holiday weekend, after data released indicated a cooling labour market, though there was speculation that summertime jobs data may have been a factor. The U.S. created 187,000 new jobs in August, while the unemployment rate jumped to 3.8% from 3.5%.

The data supports the narrative of a gradual slowdown in the U.S. labour market, but there are no dramatic signs that the economy is weakening significantly economists say. The economic data has not been bad. It is just softening.

News
‘Good news bad news, bad news good news’!

However, if investors see a significant decline in the housing and U.S. labour markets, that could change the narrative and break the cycle in which ‘bad economic news is good news’ for stocks, economic data have to be much worse than now, indicating more damage from high interest rates and higher inflation.

The trend may also reverse if there is a meaningful downgrade of corporate earnings ‘expectations’ and then this translates into weakened profitability.

Inflation just may climb again

Investors should also be alert for the possibility that inflation may accelerate again. Data showed that the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.2% in July, but the yearly inflation rate crept up to 3.3% from 3%. Inflation has been trending down but that trend could turn again.

If investors start to treat ‘bad economic news as bad news’ for the stock market, it could put pressure on the 2023 stock-market rally, with the S&P 500 SPX already up 17.6% since the start of the year and the Nasdaq Composite COMP up 34%.

General concensus is that the bull run ain’t over just yet.

Just keep an eye on the data…

‘It is the beauty within us that makes it possible for us to recognize the beauty around us. The question is not what you look at but what you see’.

Sunshine

Henry David Thoreau 1817 –1862

He was an American naturalist, essayist, poet, and philosopher and leading transcendentalist.

Transcendentalism is a philosophical, spiritual, and literary movement that developed in the late 1820s and 1830s in the New England region of the United States.  

A core belief is in the inherent goodness of people and nature, and while society and its institutions have corrupted the purity of the individual, people are at their best when truly ‘self-reliant’ and independent.

People and a sunset
‘It is the beauty within us that makes it possible for us to recognize the beauty around us. The question is not what you look at but what you see’.

Adobe hunting for potential future AI software top spot – STOCK WATCH

Adobe Firefly

The creator of Photoshop and InDesign launched a generative AI tool called ‘firefly’, which has recently gained traction. It is quite possible that Adobe has one of the best AI generative tools available and it’s worth checking it out as a stock to *invest in.

Firefly enables users to edit through simple typed commands

Adobe Firefly is a generative AI-powered content creation tool from Adobe that allows you to experiment, imagine, and create an infinite range of images with simple ‘text’ prompts. 

You can use Firefly to generate images from a detailed text description, apply styles or textures to words and phrases, use a brush to remove objects or paint in new ones, generate color variations of your vector artwork, and more. 

Adobe Share Chart as at 5th september 2023

Morgan Stanley thinks Adobe can benefit from artificial intelligence-powered products even more.The bank upgraded Adobe to overweight from equal weight.

Bank of America has also upgraded Adobe to buy with a revised target price of $63000 per share.

Definitely one to watch!

*Please do your own careful research – this is not a recommendation but simply an observation. Remember RESEARCH! RESEARCH! RESEARCH!

David Ferrucci, the scientist behind IBM Watson raises substantial funds for his AI project

AI Mainframe Supercomputer Computer

David Ferrucci, a prominent artificial intelligence researcher who led the team that created IBM Watson, has reportedly raised nearly $60 million for his AI company called Elemental Cognition.

Headquartered in New York, Elemental says on its website that the company seeks to develop AI that ‘thinks before it talks‘. It offers two enterprise products, Cogent and Cora, which are essentially chatbots designed for different scenarios. They can be used in financial services, interactive travel planning and for automating research discovery in life sciences.

Elemental Cognition

  • The new startup company is called Elemental Cognition, and it was founded in 2015 by David Ferrucci, who led the team that created IBM Watson.
  • Elemental Cognition aims to develop AI that ‘thinks before it talks‘ and can understand the meaning and context of human language. It offers two enterprise products, Cogent and Cora, which are chatbots for different scenarios.
  • Elemental Cognition has raised $60 million in funding from 17 investors, including Jim Breyer, former IBM CEO Sam Palmisano, and Geoff Yang of Redpoint Ventures.

What is IBM Watson?

IBM Watson is used in various areas of AI, such as natural language processing, machine learning, computer vision, speech recognition, and knowledge representation. IBM Watson is a cognitive computing system that can process natural language, analyze large amounts of data, and learn from its interactions with humans and machines.

IBM Watson is a question-answering computer system capable of answering questions posed in natural language, developed in IBM’s DeepQA project by a research team led by principal David Ferrucci. Watson was named after IBM’s founder and first CEO, industrialist Thomas J. Watson.

Watson Assistant: A chatbot platform that allows businesses to create conversational agents that can interact with customers and employees through text or voice. Watson Assistant can understand natural language, provide personalized responses, and integrate with other services and data sources.

A watercolour image of an AI microchip powering a mainframe supercomputer computer

Watson Discovery: A data analysis tool that can extract insights from structured and unstructured data, such as documents, web pages, social media posts, and images. Watson Discovery can perform natural language understanding, sentiment analysis, entity extraction, and document classification.

Watson Studio: A cloud-based platform that enables data scientists and developers to build, train, and deploy AI and machine learning models. Watson Studio supports various frameworks and languages, such as Python, TensorFlow, PyTorch and R. Watson Studio also provides tools for data visualization, collaboration, and automation.

Watson Visual Recognition: A computer vision service that can analyze images and videos for content, objects, faces, scenes, and emotions. 

Power

The IBM Watson computer consists of a cluster of ninety IBM Power 750 servers, each of which uses a 3.5 GHz POWER7 eight-core processor, with four threads per core. The system has 2,880 POWER7 processor threads and 16 terabytes of RAM. It can process 500 gigabytes (the equivalent of a million books) per second.

Supercomputer now with AI power

The IBM Watson computer has an avatar that is inspired by the IBM ‘Smarter Planet’ logo. The avatar is a globe with a grid pattern and four glowing stripes that represent the four main aspects of Watson: natural language processing, hypothesis generation and evaluation, dynamic adaptation, and evidence-based learning. The avatar also changes color and brightness depending on Watson’s mood and confidence level.

International Business Machines (IBM)

IBM was founded in 1911 in Endicott, New York, as the Computing-Tabulating-Recording Company (CTR) by Charles Ranlett Flint. The company changed its name to International Business Machines (IBM) in 1924 under the leadership of Thomas J. Watson, Sr.  IBM is one of the oldest and most influential technology companies in the world, with a history of innovation and research in various fields of computing.

The International Business Machines Corporation (IBM), nicknamed ‘Big Blue’, is an American multinational technology corporation headquartered in New York and is present in over 175 countries. It specializes in computer hardware, middleware, and software, and provides hosting and consulting services in areas ranging from mainframe computers to nanotechnology. IBM is the largest industrial research organization in the world.

IBM holds the record for most annual U.S. patents generated by a business for 29 consecutive years from 1993 to 2021? 

Big Blue quietly works on…

Happy Birthday Google, 25 years today

Google search engine

Happy birthday to Google, the world’s most popular search engine!

Google was founded 25 years ago today (4th September 2023) – by Larry Page and Sergey Brin, two Stanford University students who wanted to organise the web in a better way. They named their project after the mathematical term ‘googol’, which means 1 followed by 100 zeros.

Since then, Google has grown into a global tech’ giant that offers not only search, but also email, maps, cloud computing, artificial intelligence (AI), and many other products and services. 

Google has also acquired several companies, such as YouTube, Android, and Waze.

Some of the key moments in Google’s history

  • Launching AdWords in 2000, which allowed advertisers to buy keywords and display ads on the search results page.
  • Introducing Gmail in 2004, which offered users 1 GB of free storage and a fast and simple interface.
  • Releasing Google Maps in 2005, which revolutionised the way people navigate and explore the world.
  • Buying YouTube in 2006, which made Google the owner of the largest video-sharing platform on the web.
  • Developing Chrome in 2008, which became the most widely used web browser in the world.
Happy Birthday Google – 25 years today
  • Creating Android in 2010, which became the most popular operating system for smartphones and tablets.
  • Launching Google+ in 2011, which was an attempt to compete with Facebook in the social networking space.
  • Reorganising into Alphabet in 2015, which made Google a subsidiary of a larger holding company that oversees other ventures such as Waymo, Verily, and Calico.
  • Unveiling ChatGPT in 2022, which is a conversational AI system that can generate natural and coherent responses to any text input.

Influential

Google remains one of the most influential and innovative companies in the world. It has changed the way we access information, communicate, entertain ourselves, and solve problems. It has also inspired many people to pursue their dreams and passions.

Google CEO says

As Google CEO Sundar Pichai wrote in his public memo on Google at 25: ‘We started with a simple mission: to organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful. That mission still guides us today. But we’ve also learned that our responsibility goes beyond that. We have a duty to create products that improve the lives of billions of people — not just today or tomorrow but for generations to come’.

Go google!

AI – music to my ears… or not?

Ha Jiang

Ha Jiang, is a virtual online idol, and only exists online.

Ha Jiang signed a record deal with Whet Records, Warner Music Group’s pan-Asian dance label in China, in 2021. Ha Jiang is the first virtual idol to conduct a record deal with a major label. The virtual idol uses AI technology to create music and has become an online sensation in Asia.

Ha Jiang online music avatar. She is a virtual artist who uses artificial intelligence to create music

Virtual AI artist

Ha Jiang is a virtual artist who uses artificial intelligence to create music. She is the first virtual idol to sign a record deal with a major label, Whet Records, which is Warner Music Group’s pan-Asian dance label in China. My understanding is that the music was composed by humans, so not entirely AI generated then.

Would this also work in west – is it time to be concerned?

She already has more than 100,000 followers in China and is known for her sense of style and fashion. She is also a social influencer who has been hired by the city of Shanghai to promote safe driving. Ha Jiang is not a real person, but a computer-generated avatar who only exists online. She is part of a growing phenomenon of virtual idols in Asia, especially among Gen-Z fans.

Endel, is a sound startup company that uses artificial intelligence to create personalized audio tracks. Endel was the first to sign a record deal with Warner Music Group in 2019 to release 20 albums of ambient music.

Digital £ Pound Sterling

Digital £ pound

The digital pound is a proposed new form of money that would be issued by the Bank of England and backed by the government. It would be similar to a digital banknote, enabling you to use it in-store or online to make payments.

It would not be intended to replace cash, but complement it. The digital pound is also known as digital sterling or Britcoin.

Bank of England and UK Government

The Bank of England and HM Treasury are looking at the idea of a digital pound because they think it might offer a new way to pay, help businesses, build trust in money, and better protect the UK’s financial system. They have published a Consultation Paper, which explores the need for the digital pound and proposes a set of design choices for it. They are also engaging with businesses and communities to get their views on the digital pound.

The digital pound is not a cryptocurrency or cryptoasset. Unlike cryptocurrencies, which have volatile values, the digital pound would be issued by the Bank of England and have a stable value, just like banknotes.

I promise to pay the bearer on demand the sum of £10.00

The digital £ is coming to a bank near you or more likely, an app near you

£10 in digital pounds would always have the same value as a £10 banknote.

India’s mission to the sun is next

India mission to the sun

Mission to the sun

Days after India’s successful moon mission, the country is now setting its sights on the sun. 

According to the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), the Aditya-L1 spacecraft will be launched from the Sriharikota Spaceport on 2nd September 2023 in a bid to study the sun and its effect on space weather. 

Aditya (sun in Hindi)

Aditya, which refers to the sun in Hindi, is to be placed in a halo orbit around the Lagrangian point 1 of the Sun-Earth system, where the sun can be observed without any obstructions, an ISRO report stated.  

Lagrange points are positions in space where gravitational forces of two large masses produce ‘enhanced regions of attraction and repulsion’, according to NASA. The resulting force can be used to remain in position and reduce fuel consumption – and can be likened to ‘parking places’ for spacecraft.

To become India’s first space based observatory

The launch will mark India’s first space-based observatory to study the sun, and would offer a ‘major advantage of continuously viewing the sun without any occultation or eclipses’, the ISRO report stated.

India mission to the sun
India’s mission to the sun

The mission would also allow for the study of solar wind, which could potentially cause disturbances on Earth, such as disrupting communications, navigation systems and weather patterns.

India’s government had granted a $46 million budget for the mission back in 2019.

India recently became only the fourth country to land on the moon, doing so with the relatively low budget of $75 million. This was a massive achievement and one India celebrated with relish.

While a first attempt for India, other countries have successfully placed orbiters to study the sun. NASA’s Parker Solar Probe in 2021 which was sent to the sun’s corona to sample particles and magnetic fields, as well as the European Space Agency’s Solar Orbiter which was launched the year before. 

See India’s moon mission article here

‘What’s the point of HS2 if there is no one to run it?’ ‘Beats me… guess we’re stuck with it!’

Train strikes

‘Is this the end of the line’?

Yet more strike action continues to create chaos for travellers

Much of the UK will have no train services on Friday 1st Septemebr 2023 as the latest major strike action takes place.

Members of Aslef, the train drivers’ union, who work at more than a dozen train companies, have walked out and have refused to work.

Up to 20,000 RMT union members at 14 operators will also strike on Saturday in a long-running dispute

Meanwhile, a consultation closing most ticket offices in England ends.

Ticket office closures

Unions and disability groups have also taken action against other proposed working practices in the industry, such as ticket office closures.

Currently, nearly 300 stations in England run by train companies with Department for Transport contracts have a full-time staffed ticket office – 708 are staffed part-time. Under the proposals, most would close.

Train strikes
‘What’s the point in HS2 if there is no one to run it’? ‘Beats me… guess we’re stuck with it!’

Ongoing dispute

The UK train strikes are part of an ongoing dispute between the rail unions and the train operators over pay and conditions.

  • ASLEF members at 16 rail operators will strike again on Friday, 1st September 2023 and Saturday, 2nd September 2023.
Strike action
‘What year is it? Strike action continues to hold inflation higher. Been here too many times before’.
  • RMT members at 14 train companies will strike again on 2nd September 2023. This will severely affect the timetables.

Pay dispute and working practices

The rail unions are demanding a pay rise that reflects the rising cost of living, as well as job security and improved working conditions. The train operators say they need to make changes to the ways of working in order to save money and improve efficiency, especially after the pandemic hit their finances hard. 

The Rail Delivery Group, which represents the train operators, has offered a 5% pay rise for 2022, but the unions have rejected it as insufficient and conditional on reforms they oppose.

The train strikes have caused significant disruption and frustration for millions of passengers, especially during the peak summer holiday season. The government has urged both sides to resume talks and find a resolution

Train strikes
‘Does this train go north’?

UK house prices experience biggest yearly decline since 2009

UK House Prices Fall

The Nationwide Building Society says house prices are 5.3% lower compared to August last year, in the biggest annual decline since 2009.

Nationwide said the drop represented a fall of £14,600 on a typical home in the UK since house prices peaked in August 2022. It also said higher borrowing costs for buyers had led to a slowdown in activity in the housing market. Mortgage approvals are also about 20% below pre-Covid levels.

After 14 rate increases from the Bank of England – a two year fixed rate mortgage is now touching 6.7%

Since December 2021, the Bank of England (BoE) has raised interest rates 14 times in row in a bid to clamp down on rising inflation in the UK. The bank’s base rate now stands at 5.25%. This has led to lenders raising their mortgage rates, putting increased pressure on homebuyers.

The average two-year fixed mortgage rate on Friday was 6.7%, while the average five-year fix was 6.19%.

Average house prices in the UK peaked at £273,751 in August 2022 but fell to £259,153 last month.