BYD’s sharp fall in electric‑vehicle sales across January and February 2026 marks a significant moment for the world’s largest EV maker, signalling both cyclical pressures and a deeper shift in China’s hyper‑competitive market.
Adjusted for the disruption caused by the mid‑February Lunar New Year holiday, BYD’s combined sales for the first two months of the year were down roughly 36% year on year, a rare contraction for a company that has spent the past three years dominating China’s new‑energy vehicle segment.
Slump
Several forces converged to produce the slump. The reinstatement of a 5% purchase tax on new‑energy vehicles at the end of 2025 pulled demand forward, leaving a vacuum in early 2026 as buyers rushed to complete purchases before the levy returned.
At the same time, China’s EV market is maturing, with consumers becoming more discerning and competitors far more aggressive.
Xiaomi, Leapmotor, Nio and Geely’s Zeekr all posted strong double‑digit growth over the same period, with Xiaomi’s YU7 SUV even becoming China’s best‑selling passenger vehicle in January.
This intensifying competition reflects a broader levelling of the playing field. Rivals are increasingly attacking BYD’s core mid‑market territory by packing more features into vehicles while keeping prices tight — a trend known locally as involution.
Leading still
Analysts note that while BYD’s lead remains substantial, it is narrowing as alternatives become more compelling.
Yet the picture is not uniformly negative. BYD’s strategic pivot towards overseas markets is beginning to pay off: in February 2026, its exports surpassed domestic sales for the first time, underscoring the company’s growing global footprint and providing a buffer against domestic volatility.
Later in 2026, BYD is expected to launch new models featuring its next‑generation Blade Battery 2.0 and faster flash‑charging technology — innovations that could help reignite domestic demand without resorting to a price war.