Observe. Think. Chat. Do. Trade. Repeat…
This quote is attributed to George Orwell, a British writer and journalist who is best known for his novels 1984 and Animal Farm, which are critical of totalitarian regimes and propaganda.
The Buffet Indicator is a valuation multiple used to assess how expensive or cheap the aggregate stock market is at a given point in time. It was proposed by investor Warren Buffett in 2001, who called it ‘probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment‘ . It compares the total value of all publicly traded securities in the U.S. to the U.S. GDP .
The current value of the Buffet Indicator is 181%, (July 2023) – which suggests that the U.S. stock market is reportedly worth $48.37 trillion, while the U.S. GDP is $26.74 trillion.
This ratio is 50.50% above the historical trend line, suggesting that the stock market is overvalued relative to GDP. Buffett warned that if the ratio approaches 200%, ‘you are playing with fire‘.
Buffett Indicator: $48.85T ÷ $26.91T = 182%
The Buffett Indicator expresses the value of the U.S. stock market in terms of the size of the U.S. economy. If the stock market value is growing much faster than the actual economy, then it may be in a bubble.
Apple shares previously failed to close at levels that would have given the company a market cap of $3 trillion, despite a promising intra-day move in January 2022.
Apple has become the first publicly traded company ever to be worth $3 trillion. The company’s market valuation reached this milestone on January 3rd, 2022. Apple’s stock briefly eclipsed $182.86 a share before closing at $182.01. The milestone is mostly symbolic but it represents investor recognition of Apple’s success over the past few years as the company has reported several record-breaking quarters of big growth in all of its product lines.
Apple is not just a hardware player – it has an even bigger slice of the tech’ consumer pie than you may imagine, especially in the cloud computing arena.
Apple has regained its $3 trillion valuation to become the first-listed company, in modern times, to reach the $3 trillion milestone again. It acheived this on 30th June 2023. Shares climbed more than 2% to hit a record $193.97. However, by direct comparison and by todays valuation, the East India Trading Company beat Apple to this accolade long-a-go in the 17th Century having acheived a higher value equivalent to $7 trillion in todays money.
C’mon Apple you laggard!
The FEDNOW payment system is a new instant payment infrastructure developed by the Federal Reserve that allows financial institutions of every size across the U.S. to provide safe and efficient instant payment services.
It went live on July 20, 2023 and enables individuals and businesses to send and receive money in near real-time, 24/7/365, through their depository institution accounts.
The service is a flexible, neutral platform that supports a broad variety of instant payments and offers optional features such as fraud prevention tools, request for payment capability, and tools to support payment inquiries.
FedNow is the first new payment rail in the United States since the introduction of the Automated Clearing House (ACH) in the early 1970s.
Is this a possibly a pre-emptive strike to get ahead of international digital currency deployment and set the scene to adopt a digital payment structure of a new ‘crypto coin system’ for the future – the digital dollar?
XRP, the native token of the blockchain company Ripple, soared more than 60% on Thursday after a U.S. judge delivered a major victory to the firm in its legal battle with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The SEC had sued Ripple in December 2020, alleging that it had raised over $1.3 billion through the sale of XRP in an unregistered securities offering. The SEC claimed that XRP was an investment contract that gave buyers the expectation of profits based on Ripple’s efforts.
However, the Judge ruled that XRP was not a security “on its face” and that some aspects of its sale did not violate the federal securities laws.
The judge drew a distinction between the sales of XRP to institutional investors, which she said could constitute investment contracts, and the sales of XRP to the general public on exchanges, which did not.
The judge also denied Ripple’s argument that the SEC lacked jurisdiction over XRP transactions because they were not domestic, and agreed with the SEC that the Howey test, a four-pronged criteria to determine whether an asset is a security, applied to cryptocurrency transactions.
The ruling was welcomed by Ripple and its supporters, who argued that XRP was a utility token that facilitated cross-border payments and did not depend on Ripple’s efforts for its value.
Ripple’s chief legal officer, reportedly tweeted: “A huge win today – as a matter of law – XRP is not a security. Also, a matter of law – sales on exchanges are not securities. Sales by executives are not securities. Other XRP distributions – to developers, charities, and employees- are not securities.”
A lawyer representing over 19,000 XRP holders who intervened in the case, reportedly called on U.S. exchanges to relist XRP in solidarity with the decision.
The ruling also boosted the sentiment in the broader crypto market, as it suggested that the SEC did not have unlimited authority over digital assets and that some tokens could escape the securities classification.
Crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase and crypto-coins such as ADA, HBAR, BITCOIN & ETH surged following the news.
However, the case is not quite over yet, as the SEC said it would continue to review the decision and pursue its claims against Ripple for the sales of XRP to institutional investors.
The SEC also responded to the judge’s ruling by saying that it did not change its position that XRP was a security and that it would seek to prove that Ripple violated the securities laws in certain circumstances.
The outcome of the case could have significant implications for the crypto industry, as it could set a precedent for how other tokens are regulated and how other lawsuits are resolved.
It’s hard to calculate the number of people in the world accurately, and the UN admits its calculations could be out by a year or two – but it estimated that in November 2022 the eight billion line was crossed.
It is only 11 years since the population hit seven billion, and experts say this huge growth is because of many reasons including better health, nutrition and medicine.
The world reached one billion people in around 1800, then it took about another 100 years to get to the second billion – but since the 1950s the popultion growth has sped up dramatically.
Countries in Asia, including India, were responsible for a large amount of population growth over the last ten years.
The increase in population shows more children are being born, surviving adulthood and having children of their own.
People are also living longer because of better medicine and nutrition.
If you saw a picture of every person on the planet every second, it would take 253 years.
Middle-income countries, mostly in Asia, accounted for most of the growth over the past decade, with 700 million more people since 2011.
India has increased by roughly 180 million people, and is set to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation next year for the first time in almost 2,000 years.
Birth rates in China have decreased since 1980 when the country’s one-child policy was introduced, and more women have also been having children later in life to focus on their education and career opportunities.
When it comes comes to which countries are likely to grow more in the future, the UN says that most of the 2.4 billion people to be added before the global population peaks are likely to be born in sub-Saharan Africa. This includes countries like Angola, Botswana, Cameroon and the Central African Republic.
But experts say that the rate of rapid growth is starting to slow down, meaning it will take about 15 years for the population to reach nine billion – which wouldn’t be until the year 2037.
One of the main reasons for this is that people in many parts of the world are having less children. In the 1960s five births per woman was the global average, now it’s nearly half at 2.4 per woman.
The UN is predicting that the global population will rise to around 10.4 billion people in the 2080s and remain at that level until 2100.
The population growing is seen as a success by the UN because it shows how much public health, nutrition, personal hygiene and medicine has improved – but it can also present challenges.
Having more people on Earth puts more pressure on nature, with people in competition with wildlife for water, food and space, as well as with each other. Also, growing food as fuel creates immense infrastructure pressure.
This could lead to mass migration and conflict in coming decades, experts say, particularly as extreme climate change could make parts of Africa and countries so hot they could be unsuitable for people to live in.
More people means there are less resources to go around, and so governments will also need to think about how the way people and countries use what the world currently has and how this can this should be used.
This also includes how we are using energy and the impact on climate change if big countries with growing populations continue to use fossil fuels.
Although having more people on the planet will impact the environment, in fact it is the increase in producing and using materials which creates dramatic pollution increases that causes more of an impact to our immediate environment.
The UN Secretary General António Guterres said: ‘…it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another.’
Twitter, the social media platform, has undergone a major rebranding, changing its name to X and replacing its iconic blue bird logo with a simple black-and-white X. The move was announced by the company’s owner, Elon Musk, who reportedly said he wanted to create a “super app” that would transform the global ‘town square’.
Musk and Twitter’s chief executive, Linda Yaccarino, posted pictures of the new logo projected on the side of Twitter’s headquarters in San Francisco, California. They also changed profile pictures and bios to reflect the new brand identity. The desktop version of the app has already switched to the new logo, while the mobile version is expected to follow soon.
Musk is reported to have said he was looking to change Twitter’s logo because he wanted to “embody the imperfections in us all that make us unique”. He also said he had a personal affinity for the letter X, which he also used for his other ventures, such as SpaceX and X.com. Yaccarino said the rebrand was an exciting new opportunity to make a fresh “big impression” and go further than Twitter.
The rebranding of Twitter marks the biggest change to the platform since Musk began his tumultuous tenure. Among the changes have been sacking thousands of staff, locking verification checkmarks behind a paywall, reinstating banned accounts like those of Andrew Tate and Donald Trump, and applying reading limits.
The reaction from users and marketers has been mixed, with some praising the bold move and others criticising it as unnecessary and confusing. Some have also questioned whether the new logo infringes on the trademarks of other companies that use similar designs, such as Tesla and Xbox.
The company has not yet revealed whether other aspects of the platform, such as tweets, hashtags, and handles, will also be changed to match the new brand name.
Elon Musk, the billionaire entrepreneur behind Tesla, SpaceX and Neuralink, has revealed his latest venture: xAI, a new artificial intelligence company that aims to “understand the true nature of the universe”.
Musk announced the formation of xAI on Wednesday on Twitter and on the company’s official website, which features a minimalist design and a brief introduction.
Link to website: xAI: Understand the Universe
“Today we announce the formation of xAI,” the website states. “The goal of xAI is to understand the true nature of the universe.”
The website also lists 12 members of the xAI team, including Musk himself as the director. The team consists of researchers and engineers who have worked at leading AI firms such as Google’s DeepMind, OpenAI, Microsoft Research and Tesla.
It was reported that xAI was incorporated in Nevada in June 2023 and Musk has purchased thousands of graphic processing units (GPUs) to power his AI vision. The company also has a Twitter account, @xAI, which has gained over 300,000 followers in less than a day.
Musk invited the public to ask questions about xAI on a Twitter Space – this was scheduled for 1h. July 2023. He has not provided any further details about the company’s mission, vision or products.
However, based on Musk’s previous comments and involvement in AI, it is likely that xAI will focus on developing artificial general intelligence (AGI), or human-level intelligence that can perform any task across any domain.
Musk has been a vocal critic of OpenAI, the AI research organization that he co-founded in 2015 but left in 2018. He has accused OpenAI of becoming too secretive, too commercial and too “woke”, especially after the launch of its popular chatbot ChatGPT.
Musk has also expressed his concerns about the potential dangers of AI, warning that it could pose an existential threat to humanity if not aligned with human values and goals. He has advocated for ethical and responsible development of AI, as well as global cooperation and regulation.
With xAI, Musk may be trying to create an alternative to OpenAI that is more aligned with his vision and values. He may also be aiming to achieve breakthroughs in AI that could benefit his other ventures, such as Tesla’s self-driving cars, SpaceX’s reusable rockets and Neuralink’s brain-computer interfaces.
However, xAI will also face many challenges and uncertainties in its quest to understand reality. AI is a complex and rapidly evolving field that requires massive amounts of data, computing power and talent. It also raises many ethical, social and philosophical questions that are not easy to answer.
Moreover, xAI will have to compete with other established and emerging players in the AI space, such as Google, Facebook, Amazon, IBM, Microsoft and Meta. These companies have invested billions of dollars in AI research and development and have access to vast amounts of data and resources.
It remains to be seen whether xAI will be able to achieve its ambitious goal and how it will impact the AI industry and society at large.
As Musk himself tweeted: “The future is weird.”
Ernie was first introduced in 2019, and since then, Baidu has been improving and upgrading it with new versions. The latest version, Ernie 3.5, was announced in June 2023, and it claims to outperform OpenAI’s ChatGPT and GPT 4 in several key areas
Baidu’s Ernie is an artificial intelligence (AI) model that powers the company’s chatbot service, Ernie Bot. Ernie stands for Enhanced Language RepresentatioN with Informative Entities, and it is a natural language processing (NLP) deep-learning model that can understand and generate natural language.
Ernie 3.5 is based on Baidu’s foundational AI model, which is trained on huge amounts of data from various domains, such as news, social media, encyclopedias, books, and more. Ernie 3.5 can handle various NLP tasks, such as question answering, dialogue generation, text summarization, sentiment analysis, and more.
According to a test by the China Science Daily journal, Ernie 3.5 surpassed ChatGPT and GPT 4 in general abilities and outperformed the more advanced GPT 4 on several Chinese-language capabilities.
ERNIE version 3.5 boosted its training and efficiency, making it faster and cheaper to upgrade to future versions. Baidu hopes that ERNIE Bot will become the next must-have app in China’s internet market, attracting users because of its natural and engaging conversations.
Baidu has been integrating ERNIE Bot across multiple business applications, ranging from cloud computing to smart speakers.
ERNIE Bot is one of the examples of how Baidu is investing in AI technology and competing with other tech giants in the US and China. Baidu’s founder Robin Li, reportedly said that ‘foundation models are an engine driving global economic growth and represent a major strategic opportunity that cannot be missed‘.
The major BIG players, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft & META all have their own versions of AI. Hopefully it will be used ‘intelligently’.
AI stands for Artificial Intelligence, which is the ability of machines to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence. AI can involve various aspects of cognition, such as perceiving, reasoning, learning, problem-solving, and even creativity.
AI can be classified into different types based on the level of intelligence and the scope of tasks that machines can perform. One common way to categorise AI is by using the following four types:
AI is here to stay – it’s all about how we use it for the betterment of ‘humankind’. Please, let’s use it safely, responsibly and for the good!
Alphabet/Google
Amazon
AMD
Meta
Compound interest is simply interest added back to the original or principal sum and then more interest is earned or calculated on ‘that’ added interest over the next compounding period.
Over a one year period: Take £1000 capital and add 5% interest (lucky if you can get it). That equals to £1050. That’s 1000 x 5% over 1 year = £1050.
Now this is the best bit…
Take your £1050 from the first year (original capital plus interest). Now, in year two it goes like this…
Take the new value £1050 capital add 5% interest again (but this time it is added to £1050 not just the original £1000).
That’s 1050 x 5% equals £1102.50 we’re compounding the interest on the £50 earned in the first year as well as the original capital.
It will be £1102.50 x 5% = £1157.63 and so on.
You can clearly see why it is important to take advantage of compound interest. Leaving your money in a savings account right now with such low interest rates isn’t a wise option. But when/if you can find a sensible interest rate COMPOUND interest will be your best friend.
Don’t just take my word for it. Compound interest is in very good company.
‘Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.’
He called it, ‘the greatest mathematical discovery of all time.’
Start £100,000.00
Year 1 £105,000.00
Year 2 £110,250.00
Year 3 £115,762.50
Year 4 £121,550.63
Year 5 £127,628.16
Year 6 £134,009.56
Year 7 £140,710.04
Year 8 £147,745.54
Year 9 £155,132.82
Year 10 £162,889.46
Year 1 £5,000.00
Year 2 £5,250.00
Year 3 £5,512.50
Year 4 £5,788.13
Year 5 £6,077.53
Year 6 £6,381.41
Year 7 £6,700.48
Year 8 £7,035.50
Year 9 £7,387.28
Year 10 £7,756.64
It’s time to compound your savings.
What are you waiting for… go do it now!
Crypto, short for cryptocurrency, is a digital or virtual currency that uses cryptography for security and operates independently of a central bank. Cryptocurrencies are decentralised currencies, meaning they’re neither issued nor governed by a central bank.
Some cryptocurrencies are issued by their developers, while others are generated by their respective network algorithms. They exist and operate on a public ledger called a blockchain, which records all crypto transactions. Blockchain encryption is designed to make all transactions safe and secure from tampering, counterfeit, and other forms of fraudulent transactions.
Cryptocurrencies can be stored in a ‘digital wallet’ on a smartphone or computer, and owners can send them to people to buy things. Although we can’t see or touch cryptocurrencies, they do hold value. Cryptocurrencies are now being used to purchase many different products and services, and some people are even buying cars and houses with their digital assets. They’re not widely used at the moment, but many believe the use of cryptocurrencies could one day become a common way to trade.
However, the future of cryptocurrency is uncertain and opinions are divided. Some predict that institutional money entering the market and the possibility of crypto being floated on the Nasdaq could add credibility to blockchain and its uses as an alternative to conventional currencies. Others predict that regulators around the world might come together on a global framework for crypto regulation, but this looks unlikely right now. It is impossible to predict the future of the crypto market with absolute certainty.
Despite a strong start to 2023, some analysts remain cautious on growth and predict pressure for digital assets. Cryptography and blockchains will continue to be integral parts of the modern economic toolkit.
In conclusion, while there is no consensus on whether crypto is the future of currency, it is clear that it has the potential to play a significant role in the future of finance.
There is evidence to suggest that the US, EU, UK and other nations are trying to regulate the crypto market. Some people in the crypto world believe that recent attempts to ring fence the crypto industry and cut off its connectivity to the banking system are reminiscent of a little-known Obama-era program called ‘Operation Choke Point’. This refers to a 2013 US government initiative that sought to cut off undesirable industries from banking services.
The sector was already under pressure, after prices of virtual currencies collapsed last year. Further damage came from the meltdown of several high-profile firms, including FTX, run by the so-called ‘Crypto King’ Sam Bankman-Fried, whom prosecutors have accused of conducting ‘one of the biggest financial frauds’ in US history. Jolted by the turmoil, US regulators stepped up their policing of the sector, which authorities say has been on notice since at least 2017 and that their activity runs afoul of US financial rules intended to protect US investors.
The campaign has yielded a steady drumbeat of charges against crypto firms and executives, alleging violations ranging from failing to register properly with authorities and provide adequate disclosure of their activity to, in some cases, more damaging claims such as mishandling of consumer funds and fraud. The crackdown culminated this month in legal actions against two of the biggest platforms: Coinbase and Binance.
However, during a hearing on cryptocurrency and blockchain technology regulation, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo shared his belief that the United States would not be able to succeed in banning Bitcoin.
In conclusion, while there is evidence that the US is trying to regulate the crypto market, it is not clear if they are trying to stop it completely and there is also evidence that suggests that the US would not be able to succeed in banning Bitcoin.
‘Operation Choke Point’ was allegedly an initiative of the United States Department of Justice that began in 2013 under the Obama administration. The program investigated banks in the United States and the business they did with firearm dealers, payday lenders, and other companies believed to be at a high risk for fraud and money laundering. It was an attempt by President Obama’s Department of Justice, the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and other government agencies to cut off banking and financial services for small businesses and industries that they deemed to be illegal enterprises or otherwise undesirable.
Digital currencies also became a target.
This is the Bank Rate set by the Bank of England (BoE), which influences the interest rates that other banks charge borrowers and pay savers. The BoE has raised the Bank Rate 13 times in a row from 0.1% to 5% in a bid to control inflation, which is the rate at which the prices of goods and services increase over time. The BoE has a target of keeping inflation at 2%, but the current inflation rate is 8.7%, which is much higher than the target. This means that the purchasing power of money is decreasing and people have to pay more for the same things.
Promoting the good of the people of the United Kingdom by maintaining monetary and financial stability.
Well, the BoE has clearly done a good job here then with the UK interest rate now at 5%, again… and inflation at 8.7% after peaking at 11.1% in November 2022, a 41 year high! Great job!
And the UK PM said, ‘I always said this would be hard – and clearly it’s got harder over the past few months. I am totally, 100%, on it, and it’s going to be OK‘.
That’s good to know then – it’s going to be OK – so reassuring for borrowers! It’s going to be OK, so don’t worry!
Sorry PM, but that is so weak it’s bordering pathetic. Weren’t you the chancellor too?
