OpenAI enters 2026 in a paradoxical position: simultaneously one of the fastest‑growing technology companies in history and one of the most financially strained.
With annualised revenue now exceeding $20 billion, the company has clearly proven global demand for generative AI. Yet the central question remains unresolved: where is the profit, and is this the year OpenAI must prove its business model is sustainable?
The company’s revenue trajectory has been extraordinary. Annual recurring revenue rose from $2 billion in 2023 to $6 billion in 2024, before leaping past $20 billion in 2025.
This growth reflects the rapid embedding of ChatGPT into enterprise workflows and the expansion of compute capacity, which has roughly tripled each year. But the same infrastructure powering this boom is also the source of OpenAI’s financial dilemma.
Costs
Compute costs have ballooned at a rate that rivals — and in some projections exceeds — revenue growth. Analysts estimate cumulative losses could reach $143 billion by 2029 if current spending patterns continue.
The company’s burn rate, driven by massive GPU procurement and long‑term energy commitments, has been described as ‘immense’ even by industry standards Benzinga.
OpenAI’s long‑term infrastructure deals, totalling more than 26 gigawatts of future compute capacity, underline the scale of its ambition — and its financial exposure.
To counterbalance these costs, OpenAI is experimenting with new revenue streams, including the introduction of advertising within ChatGPT for U.S. users.
This marks a strategic shift from pure subscription and enterprise licensing toward a more diversified, consumer‑scale monetisation model.
Make or break?
So is 2026 a make‑or‑break year? In many ways, yes. OpenAI has proven demand, scale, and cultural impact. What it has not yet proven is that generative AI can be profitable at planetary scale.
This year will test whether the company can convert extraordinary growth into a sustainable business — or whether its costs will continue to outpace even its most impressive revenue milestones.