U.S. economy grew at 2.8% in the third quarter -below expectations

GDP U.S.

The U.S. economy experienced another growth spurt, albeit slightly underwhelming, growth period in the third quarter, driven by strong consumer spending that has surpassed slowdown expectations

The gross domestic product (GDP), which gauges all goods and services produced from July through September 2024, rose at a 2.8% annualised pace, as per the inflation and seasonality-adjusted Commerce Department report released Wednesday 30th October 2024.

This report verifies that the U.S. growth persists, notwithstanding high interest rates and persistent concerns that the surge of fiscal and monetary stimulus, which supported the economy during the Covid crisis, might not suffice to maintain growth.

Euro zone economy grows 0.4% in third quarter – better than expected

Euro Zone GDP

The euro zone’s economy expanded by 0.4% in the third quarter, according to flash figures released by the European Union’s statistics office (Eurostat) on Wednesday 30th October 2024.

Economists had anticipated a growth of 0.2%, following a 0.3% increase in the second quarter.

Analysts predict that euro zone growth may pick up cautiously in the upcoming months, in light of lower interest rates and subsiding inflation.

At its October 2024 meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced rates for the third time this year, following a final reading of September’s EU headline inflation at 1.8%.

The ECB pointed to sustained indications of sluggish activity in the euro area as a significant reason for the rate cut in October.

Markets have completely factored in another 0.25% reduction by the ECB for its final meeting of the year in December 2024.

Germany, the largest economy in the euro zone, reported an unexpected 0.2% growth in the third quarter, as per figures released on Wednesday 30th October 2024. This growth helped the country steer clear of the recession predicted by some economists.

Elon Musk predicts ‘hardship,’ economic turmoil and a stock market crash if Trump wins

U.S. presidential election

Elon Musk, the billionaire entrepreneur and CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, has recently made headlines in the U.S. with his stark predictions about the potential economic fallout if Donald Trump wins the upcoming presidential election.

This is unusual, as you are more likely to hear these proposals in a crisis, when desperate times demand desperate measures, but not leading up to a presential election and especially not from an opposition vying to take control of the U.S. presidency.

Musk’s comments have sparked widespread debate and concern, as he foresees significant economic turmoil and a stock market crash in the event of a Trump victory.

Musk’s predictions are deep-rooted in his belief that Trump’s proposed economic policies, including drastic cuts to federal spending and mass deportations, will lead to severe short-term economic disruptions.

Musk emphasised the need to reduce government spending to live within the country’s means, even if it involves temporary hardship.

He reportedly argued that such measures are necessary for long-term prosperity but acknowledged that they would likely cause an initial severe overreaction in the economy

Comments Elon Musk made

Billionaire Musk, Trump’s would-be government budget-cutting and ‘efficiency’ adviser, also says there will be “no special cases” and “no exceptions” when he starts slashing federal spending after Trump takes office.

With just a week until the presidential election, Donald Trump’s ally and influential economic adviser Elon Musk is warning people to expect economic chaos, a crashing stock market and financial “hardship” – albeit only “temporary” – if Trump wins.

“We have to reduce spending to live within our means,” Musk said. “That necessarily involves some temporary hardship, but it will ensure long-term prosperity.” 

Describing government spending as “a room full of targets,” Musk said: “Like, you can’t miss. Fire in any direction and you’re going to hit a target.”

He reportedly said, “I think once the election takes place we’ll immediately begin looking at where to take the most immediate action.”

And he reportedly added, “obviously a lot of people who are taking advantage of the government are going to be upset about that. I’ll probably need a lot of security.” 

“Everyone,” he reportedly said, will be taking a “haircut.”

The Tesla CEO went further and agreed with a supporter who predicted “an initial severe overreaction in the economy” and that “Markets will tumble.” 

“Sounds about right,” Musk replied.

Trump has already reportedly said he wants Musk to head up a commission of government efficiency. Trump says the billionaire tech entrepreneur would be his “Secretary of Budget-Cutting,” implying a possible Cabinet position.

Musk himself has described his new role as running a “Department of Government Efficiency,” though he admits the title is an inside joke – the acronym spells DOGE, the name of a cryptocurrency.

Musk speech highlights

One of the key points Musk highlighted is the potential impact of Trump’s policies on the stock market. He agreed with a social media post suggesting that the combination of mass deportations and significant government spending cuts would lead to a sharp decline in market values.

Musk’s agreement with this assessment has raised alarms among investors and economists, who fear that such a scenario could trigger a financial crisis.

Musk’s concerns are not without precedent. The stock market is highly sensitive to political and economic uncertainties, and drastic policy changes can lead to volatility and investor panic.

The prospect of mass deportations, in particular, could disrupt labour markets and consumer spending, further exacerbating economic instability. Additionally, significant cuts to federal spending could lead to job losses and reduced public services, compounding the economic challenges.

Unusual comments leading up to an election

Musk reportedly told supporters that the measures were needed because of the crisis of the skyrocketing federal debt.

This is not the usual picture when a politician and his campaign promise austerity, hardship, deep budget cuts, a likely economic “overreaction” and a slump in the stock market.

You usually hear these things proposed in a crisis, when desperate times supposedly demand desperate measures.

Are desperate times coming, maybe they are already here?

Optimism

Despite the grim outlook, Musk remains optimistic about the long-term benefits of these policies. He believes that once the initial shock subsides, the economy will recover and emerge stronger and more sustainable.

However, this perspective is not universally shared. Many economists argue that the risks associated with such drastic measures outweigh the potential benefits, and that a more balanced approach is needed to address the country’s economic challenges.

Musk’s predictions have also drawn criticism from those who view them as politically motivated. As a prominent supporter of Trump, Musk’s comments have been interpreted by some as an attempt to rally support for the former president’s economic agenda. Critics argue that Musk’s focus on austerity measures and government efficiency overlooks the broader social and economic implications of such policies.

Conclusion

Elon Musk’s predictions of economic hardship and a stock market crash if Trump wins the election have sparked significant debate and concern.

While Musk believes that these measures are necessary for long-term prosperity, the potential short-term disruptions and risks cannot be ignored. As the election approaches, investors and policymakers will be closely watching the developments and preparing for the potential economic fallout.

Whether Musk’s predictions come to pass remains to be seen, but his comments have undoubtedly added to the uncertainty and complexity of the current economic landscape and the never-ending ‘commentary surrounding the U.S. election.