Day: 7 February 2024

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‘Congratulations, as you’re the only one able to spell ‘gover ‘n’ ment’ correctly – you’ve got the job. Would you like education or something a little less taxing like… the treasury?’

Government job interview

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THE DEPARTMENT OF GOVERNMENT JOB DISTRIBUTION AND OTHER THINGS LIKE THAT

‘Congratulations, you’re the only one to spell ‘gover ‘n’ ment’ correctly – you’ve got the job. Would you like education or something a little less taxing like… the treasury?’
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Big surprise U.S. jobs rise in January 2024

U.S. workers

Job creation in the U.S. surged in January 2024, as the economy continued to defy predictions of a slowdown

The U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs and average hourly pay jumped, while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, the Labour Department said.

The report extended more job gains that has surprised economists, who have expected a jump in interest rates since 2022 to slow the economy. It hasn’t. No recession or slowdown in the economy so far.

Early rate cut less likely according to these figures

  • Average hourly earnings increased 0.6%. Year-on-year basis, wages jumped 4.5%, above the 4.1% forecast.
  • Non-farm payrolls expanded by 353,000 for the month, well above the 185,000 estimate. The unemployment rate held at 3.7%.
  • Job growth was widespread in January 2024. Professional and business services 74,000. Other sectors included health care 70,000 and retail trade 45,000.

Analysts now say the job market gain and strength make an early interest rate cut less likely.

The U.S. employment data delivered quite a shock, easily beating expectations, with earnings much higher than expected. Stock markets gained and are at elevated levels for the Dow, Nasdaq and the S&P 500. Record highs have been set – are the highs?

Market analysts said these numbers show the U.S. economy is strong and will change the mindsets of those expecting an early interest rate cut.

Expectations of a recession are off the table too, for now.

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Another decade of world debt

World debt

The world is looking at a debt crisis that will span the rest of this decade and well into the next

$307.4 trillion of world debt!

It’s not going to end well; economists warn with global borrowings hitting a record of $307.4 trillion in September 2023.

Debt at this level is unsustainable.

Both emerging markets and high-income countries have seen a substantial rise in their debt levels. These levels have grown by a some $100 trillion from 10 years ago. The debt has been fueled in part by a higher interest rate environment. 

Initially, with borrowing costs at historic lows, countries have benefitted from very low interest rate for the debt. That’s changed.

The next 10 years will likely become known as the ‘Decade of Debt.’

Debt globally is coming to a head.

As a share of the global gross domestic product, debt has risen to 336%. This compares to an average debt-to-GDP ratio of 110% in 2012 for advanced economies, and 35% for emerging economies. It was 334% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the most recent global debt monitor report by the Institute of International Finance.

To meet debt payments, it is estimated that around 100 countries will have to cut spending on critical infrastructure including health, education and social projects.

Countries that manage to improve their fiscal situation could benefit by attracting capital, labour and investment. However, those that do not could lose talent and revenue and further increase their debt burden.

$307.4 trillion of world debt, and counting!