The S&P 500 soared to a new high, surpassing 5400 for the first time on Wednesday 12 June 2024, following the Federal Reserve’s latest policy statement and the May 2024 inflation report, which suggested a softening of inflationary pressures. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.85%, closing at around 5421Read More →
The Fed have deliberated over ‘transitory’ inflation – (they got that wrong). They have teased us about when rates will be cut (still waiting). And now we are told no rate cut but: ‘the next rate move is unlikely to be up!’ Probably better to say and do nothing atRead More →
Markets have fretted about core inflation recently, now analysts are concerned about a highly specific price gauge within the data – ‘supercore’ inflation. This measure tracks services inflation, excluding food, energy, and housing, which has recently surged, rising 4.8% year-over-year in March 2024 and over 8% on a three-month annualisedRead More →
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated on Wednesday 3rd April 2024 that policymakers will need time to assess the current inflation situation, leaving the schedule for potential interest rate reductions unclear. Referring to the stronger-than-anticipated price pressures at the year’s onset, Powell reportedly stated that he and his colleagues areRead More →
The Fed in March 2024, indicated for the markets to expect three interest rate cuts by the end of 2024 – but what if this didn’t happen? The Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates in 2024 could have significant implications for the U.S. economy. Fed cred – credibility wouldRead More →
In his Capitol Hill testimony on 6th March 2024, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that was not yet time to begin cutting interest rates. To fight inflation, which reached a rate of 9% in the summer of 2022, the central bank has significantly increased interest rates in recent times. However, prices are still stubborn, especiallyRead More →
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a U.S. TV interview on Sunday 4th January 2024 that the central bank will proceed carefully with interest rate cuts this year and likely will move at a considerably slower pace than the market expects. Election year rate cuts? In the interview andRead More →
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held interest rates steady and indicated a willingness stop raising interest rates. But a cut anytime soon is unlikely until inflation is brought fully under control and nearer to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. The Federal Reserve sent a signal that it is finishedRead More →
Federal Reserve officials in December concluded that interest rate cuts are likely in 2024, though they appeared to provide little in the way of when that might occur, according to minutes from the meeting released Wednesday 3rd January 2024. FOMC meeting minutes The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) agreed to keepRead More →
The 10-year Treasury yield slipped further on Monday 18th December 2023, as the final full trading week of 2023 gets underway. Traders are attempting to digest the ‘dovish’ tone of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The central bank held its key interest rate at 5.5% and revealed that policymakers were pencilling in at leastRead More →
Fed holds U.S. rates at 5.5%, indicates three cuts coming in 2024 The Federal Reserve on Wednesday 13th December 2023 held its key interest rate steady for the third time in a row and set the scene for multiple rate cuts in 2024 and 2025. With inflation easing and theRead More →
Federal Reserve members, in their most recent meeting, gave little indication of cutting interest rates anytime soon, particularly as inflation remains well above their goal of 2%, according to minutes released Tuesday 21st November 2023. The detail of the meeting held 31st October – 1st November 2023, showed that FederalRead More →
Binance chief Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty Tuesday to criminal charges and stepped down as the company’s CEO as part of a $4.3 billion settlement with the Department of Justice, according to court documents. The plea arrangement with the U.S. government resolves an investigation into the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. ZhaoRead More →
Probably not, any time soon… Observing the data available at CME FedWatch the stock market does not seem to expect the Fed to start cutting rates aggressively anytime soon, this opinion is based on the current pricing data of the fed-funds futures market. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, theRead More →
Fed Chair Jerome Powell reportedly said he and his colleagues remain steadfast in getting policy in line with their 2% inflation target, but ‘we are not confident that we have achieved such a stance’. He stressed the Fed nevertheless can be cautious as the risks between doing too much andRead More →
New FED Payment System The FEDNOW payment system is a new instant payment infrastructure developed by the Federal Reserve that allows financial institutions of every size across the U.S. to provide safe and efficient instant payment services. Live system It went live on July 20, 2023 and enables individuals and businesses to send andRead More →
Take cover! UK election engulfed in yet another politically charged fallout from scandalous greed driven morally bankrupt politicians, and police. All connected to the inner workings of a failed government bereft of any sense of moral duty. The opposition Party are implicated too! Why? Is this really the best weRead More →
The ‘Sahm Rule’ serves as a heuristic indicator employed by the Federal Reserve to ascertain the onset of a recession in the economy. The Sahm Rule is a real-time evaluation tool based on monthly unemployment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Named after economist Claudia Sahm, it forecastsRead More →
The unloved rally: A paradox The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been reaching all-time highs with remarkable frequency, notching nearly thirty record days in 2024, including four in the past week. Despite this stellar performance, a considerable number of investors remain hesitant. Let’s explore the reasons behind this paradox. LingeringRead More →
The U.S. economy exceeded job growth expectations in May 2024, alleviating concerns of a labour market downturn but potentially diminishing the Federal Reserve’s motivation to cut interest rates. Non-farm payrolls surged by 272,000 for the month – a significant increase from April’s 165,000 and surpassing the consensus forecast of 190,000.Read More →
Albert Camus 1913 – 1960 Albert Camus was a French philosopher, author, dramatist, journalist, world federalist, and political activist. He received the 1957 Nobel Prize in Literature at the age of 44, becoming the second youngest recipient in history. See WikipediaRead More →
Bad economic news appears to have had an interesting impact on the stock market recently. Traditionally, negative economic data might be anticipated to result in falling stock prices; however, recent trends have diverged from this norm. News trend In the past two months, negative economic news has had a paradoxically positiveRead More →
The Nasdaq Composite closed at an all-time high above 17,000 for the first time, propelled by a rise in Nvidia shares, despite a generally uneventful market day. Nasdaq 100 all-time high of 18907 Nasdaq Comp hit all-time high of 17019 The S&P 500 saw a marginal increase of 0.02%. FollowingRead More →
The federal debt reportedly reached $34.5 trillion, marking an increase of approximately $11 trillion since March 2020. This surge has sparked discussions among government and financial leaders, with a notable Wall Street firm questioning whether the associated costs could threaten the stock market’s upward trend. The Congressional Budget Office projectsRead More →
Precious metal prices received a significant uplift on Thursday 16th May 2024 following the release of better-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which increased the likelihood of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, again. Gold prices reached their highest point in over three weeks on Thursday too, while silver achieved its highestRead More →
The decision comes as inflation, which measures price rises over a period of time, remains above the Bank’s 2% target at 3.2%. But bank says cuts are coming. Is the 2% target still a sensible benchmark? The 2% inflation target set by central banks has been a widely adopted benchmarkRead More →