UK house prices fall as lenders raise mortgage rates

House lenders increase rates

House prices declined in April 2024, with affordability pressures persisting for potential buyers, as reported by Nationwide.

The UK’s largest building society reported a 0.4% decrease in house prices compared to the previous month. The average cost of a home now stands at £261,962, which is 4% lower than in the summer of 2022 peak.

According to the report, the increase in borrowing costs was a significant factor in the recent drop in prices.

In recent days a string of lenders raised rates on new fixed-rate mortgage deals.

The rise was driven by expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) would implement fewer and more gradual interest rate reductions.

UK house prices 1.8% lower in 2023, says Nationwide

House prices down in 2023 says Nationwide

House prices have ended the year 1.8% lower in the UK, according to Nationwide Building Society

The Nationwide forecasts no growth or a further fall in 2024.

The lender said the average house price across the UK was £257,443 in December 2023. This was flat compared to November 2023 but down compared to December 2022.

The lender reportedly said that consumer confidence ‘remains weak’, despite some mortgage rates falling in anticipation for Bank of England (BoE) to cut borrowing costs in the months ahead.

The number of housing transactions has been running at around 10% below pre-Covid levels, Nationwide reported. The fall was more pronounced for those buying a house using a mortgage – down 20% compared to before the pandemic.

However, the volume of cash deals continues to run above the levels recorded before Covid hit.

The U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate has hit 8% for the first time since 2000, as Treasury yields rocket

U.S. mortgage rates

The average rate on the U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 8% on Wednesday 18th October 2023, according recently released data. That is the highest level since 2000.

The unwelcome milestone came as bond yields soared to levels not seen since 2007. Mortgage rates follow the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury.

Sharp rise

Rates climbed sharply in the last two weeks, as investors digested more economic data. On Wednesday 18th October 2023 it was housing starts, which rose in September 2023, although not as much as expected, according to the U.S. data.

Building permits, an indicator of future construction, fell but by a less than expected. Last week, retail sales came in far higher than expected, creating more uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s long-term plan.

U.S. mortgage applications plummet

The higher rates have caused mortgage demand to plummet, as applications fell nearly 7% last week from the previous week.

The average rate on the 30-year fixed was as low as 3% just two years ago. To put it in perspective, a buyer purchasing a $400,000 home with a 20% cash deposit would have a payment increase of nearly $12,000 per year more than it would have been two years ago.

U.S. mortgage rates closing in on 8% – Taking Stock

U.S. mortgage rates closing in on 8%

Mortgage up

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 7.72% on Tuesday 3rd October 2023, according to latest data

Mortgage rates follow loosely the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which has been climbing this week following strong economic data. Rates have not been this high since the end of 2000.

At the beginning of this year, the 30-year fixed rate dropped mortgage to around 6%, creating a short-lived burst of activity in the spring 2023. But it began rising steadily again over the summer months, causing sales to drop, despite strong demand. The current trend appears to be even higher, with the possibility of rates reaching over 8%.

U.S. mortgage rates, which are close to 8% according to some sources. This is a very high level compared to the recent years, and it may have significant implications for the housing market and the economy.

Main points

Some experts believe that rates could reach 8% later by the end of October, and possibly stay at that level for the remainder of the year. Others, however, think that rates may stabilize or decline slightly if the economic growth slows down or inflation eases.

30 year fixed mortgage rate at 7.72%

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 7.72% as of Oct. 3, according to Mortgage News Daily. This is the highest rate since 2000.

Rates are rising as more economic indicators point to a strong U.S. economy, which increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve to hike rates further. The 10-year Treasury yield, which closely tracks the mortgage rates, reached 4.8% on Tuesday, the highest level since August 2007.

Hitting 8% will be like crossing a psychological barrier for many buyers, as it will increase their monthly payments and reduce their affordability. It may also dampen the demand for housing, which has already been affected by low inventory and high prices.

Some buyers are already seeing 8% mortgage rates, especially those who have high loan-to-value ratios, high balance-conforming loans, or non-qualified mortgage loans. These could also be borrowers with lower credit scores or non-prime borrowers.

UK mortgage arrears by value climbs

Mortgage arrears

The value of UK mortgage arrears jumped by almost a third in April to June 2023 compared with the same period last year, according to the Bank of England (BoE).

Outstanding mortgage debt is now £16.9bn, the highest since 2016, it said.

Mortgage costs have risen for millions as the Bank has repeatedly hiked interest rates to slow soaring prices.

Some experts warn defaults will rise, but others say the number unable to repay remains relatively low.

According to the BoE, in April-June 16% of mortgages in arrears were new cases, which it said ‘was little changed compared to the previous quarter’.

It added that the proportion of mortgages in arrears was the highest since 2018.

See UK debt burden here

UK mortgage arrears
Debt burden – the value of UK mortgage arrears jumped by almost a third in April to June 2023