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Bertrand Russell was a British mathematician, philosopher and public intellectual. He had influence on mathematics, logic, set theory, and various areas of analytic philosophy. Wikipedia
Euro zone inflation eased to 2.6% in February figures showed on Friday 1st March 2024, but both the headline and core figures were higher than expected.
Core inflation, removing the volatile elements of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was 3.1% above the 2.9% rate expected.
The February figures will be a headache for EU policymakers, as core inflation is still holding above 3% even as the headline rate moves toward the ECB’s 2% target.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 ended some 90 points shy of breaching the 40000 level, leading gains in Asia stocks on Friday 1st March 2024.
As tech giant Nvidia soars on hype around artificial intelligence (AI), and as global stock indexes claim record highs, debate has grown about whether the stock market has entered a ‘bubble.’
We are reminded of the dotcom bubble where investment was rife in anything tech – so, are we now potentially facing a new tech bubble – an AI bubble of boom?
That’s generally seen as a period in which asset prices inflate rapidly, potentially beyond their core value; and risk crashing just as fast.
Other AI stocks are chasing the dream too adding to the hype. However, some are in the slow lane playing catch-up and this may suggest there is much, much more to come.
The likes of AMD, Intel, Amazon, OpenAI, Arm and a myriad of other tech companies big and small have much more AI to bring to the tech table.
If we look at the valuation of Nvidia, justifiably it is actually very high, too high even – that’s the first sign of a potential problem, valuation. The second issue is investor positioning – whenever you have a market bubble, investors are very clustered or very concentrated, either in one market or in one sector as a whole.
It doesn’t matter which markets you look at – the U.S., Europe or Asia markets – the problem is the same. We now have an historic valuation between the tech sector, the AI sub-sector of the tech sector, and the rest of the market.
Investors are very clustered in this tech sector. However, some leading commentators say of tech that this is not hype – this is real. It most probably is, for now, and with much more to come from the smaller tech and AI companies that have yet to show their true AI value. But all bubbles burst in the end.
There is certainly plenty of room for AI to grow – it’s in its infancy – but the question is: ‘how and when will the bubble burst? Because, in my humble opinion, it most certainly will.
We may not see a dramatic market crash like 1999-2000 or 2007/2008, but an investor rotation out of areas of concentration into the broader market will likely happen.
If you look at the bubbles of 1999-2000, and then in 2007/2008, one key characteristic was investor leverage. And we had, whether it was retail investors or institutional investors, a very high level of leverage, and that was either through borrowings or it was through derivatives.
The AI tech boom has legs but there will almost inevitably be a rotation from AI to other sectors – that will then adjust the overvalued AI sector. And it could pullback quite hard.
Be ready!
At 8.4%, India’s economy expanded at its fastest pace in six quarters, data showed late Thursday, on strong private consumption and upbeat manufacturing and construction activity. Reuters estimates had pegged growth in the October to December period at 6.6%.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi posted on the social media platform X, that it shows ‘the strength of Indian economy and its potential.’
India is forecast to leap ahead of Japan and Germany as the world’s third biggest economy in the next few years.
The better-than-expected growth was led by a strong performance by the country’s manufacturers, with the sector expanding by 11.6% in the period.
Private consumption, which makes up almost two-thirds of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), also rose by 3.5%.
India is on a tear.